Super Tuesday: Key Dixie Target for ’88 Contenders

This city is home turf for Democratic presidential candidate and Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr. But that did not deter Delaware Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr., one of Gore’s rivals for the Democratic prize, from seeking support for his own candidacy on a visit here earlier this month.

“I know Al is a great guy,” Biden said as he pumped the hand of one well-connected party activist at a campaign reception. “But in case Al doesn’t go the distance,” Biden added, without relinquishing his grip, “just remember I’m No. 2.”

Tennessee, along with the rest of the South, is a magnet for Biden and the other White House aspirants in both parties because of a new phenomenon called Super Tuesday--a regional presidential primary scheduled to be held next March 8. On that date, 14 Southern and border states will choose roughly 30% of all the delegates to both the Democratic and Republican nominating conventions.

The prospect of electing such a huge proportion of the delegates in one region all on the same day has made Super Tuesday a critical target for the burgeoning field of presidential hopefuls.

But just as significant are the opportunities and risks that Super Tuesday represents for the two parties. Their struggle for dominance in Dixie will not only bear heavily on the Super Tuesday outcomes but also on Election Day the following November.

Southern Democrats created Super Tuesday in hopes of magnifying their influence within their own party as well as boosting Democratic chances of capturing the region in November. But now Republicans see the March mega-contest as an opportunity that could prove even more helpful to them than to the Democrats who dreamed it up.

Republicans hope that the conservative bent of their presidential candidates, along with an ambitious GOP program to focus the campaign on important local and regional issues, will draw moderate Democrats and independents into the GOP fold, especially in a number of states where Democrats can cross over and vote in Republican primaries. In the process, the Republicans seek to paint the Democrats into a left-wing corner they would be unable to escape in November.

Sees Plus for GOP

“The Republicans have a better chance to increase their primary turnout in 1988 than ever before,” says University of South Carolina political scientist Earl Black, co-author with his brother, Merle, of the recently published book “Politics and Society in the South.”

“But whether they can do it depends mainly on whether they still have a real contest going on by March 8,” he says.

‘Tremendous Interplay’

Party leaders must worry not only about popular interest in their own competition but in the other party’s contest, too. “There is tremendous interplay in this situation,” says Don Devine, a senior adviser to Kansas Sen. Bob Dole, currently regarded as the chief rival to Vice President George Bush, the Republican front-runner. “It introduces a factor of great uncertainty.”

Compounding the uncertainty is the diverse nature of the Southern battleground, which includes some states, such as Maryland and Missouri, that are not usually thought of as Southern.

A further complication, and an additional burden for the candidates on both sides, is that the March 8 vote is not restricted to Dixie and its environs. Six other states--Massachusetts and Rhode Island in the Northeast, and Washington, Nevada, Idaho and Hawaii in the West--will also hold primaries or caucuses on that day to select their convention delegates.

Bush Holds Edge

In the early maneuvering, the immense logistical demands of the Southern contest have given an advantage on the Republican side to Bush, who has more money and organizational resources than any other candidate in either party.

Among the Democrats, civil rights leader Jesse Jackson, whose black support constitutes the most solid Democratic constituency in the South and who is better known than any of his rivals, appears to hold the advantage, at least for now.

That fits in fine with the hopes of Southern Republican Party builders who regard Jackson as anathema to most white Southerners. Says Clarke Reede, a conservative Mississippi Republican leader and Bush supporter who calls Jackson a Marxist radical: “Jesse Jackson and I have one thing in common. We both like the Super Tuesday primary.”

Jackson aside, Southern Republican leaders contend that all the Democratic candidates now in the race are too far to the left for Southern tastes, a point they count on to help attract lukewarm Democrats to the Republican primary.

“Our central message,” says Georgia Rep. Newt Gingrich, a backer of New York Rep. Jack Kemp in the presidential sweepstakes who is working with Southern GOP governors to expand the party’s base in the South, “is that none of the Democratic candidates share your values.”

Seek Positive Appeal

In addition to trying to underline Democratic negatives, Republicans are striving to establish a positive appeal largely through the Southern Republican Exchange, founded last year by former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander and now headed by the five sitting Southern GOP governors. The exchange is planning an intensive campaign of opinion surveys, town meetings and policy forums to point up local and regional issues that concern Southern voters in advance of the vote.

“Super Tuesday is an opportunity we cannot turn down,” says exchange secretary Marty Connors. Connors argues that Republicans need to phase out the laissez faire conservatism espoused by President Reagan and replace it with a new form of “conservative activism,” targeted on such objectives as upgrading public education, reforming welfare and providing for the needs of working mothers.

“We’re engaging at the state and local level to make the party more relevant,” says Republican Gov. Carroll Campbell of South Carolina, a leader of the exchange whose state will set the stage for Super Tuesday by holding its Republican presidential primary on March 5.

Republicans are particularly hopeful of converting Democrats in the eight Southern states where no party registration is required and voters are thus free to participate in either party’s primary. These include two of the biggest states--Texas and Virginia--as well as Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee.

Democrats Slipping

Even before the creation of Super Tuesday, the once-dominant Democratic position in the South had been steadily eroding, particularly in presidential elections. University of North Carolina political scientist Merle Black points out that turnout in Democratic presidential primaries has been declining steadily from 30% in 1964 to just 14% before the last presidential election, when the Democrats failed to carry a single Southern state.

In the face of these threats and problems, Southern Democrats who engineered the Super Tuesday showdown are fighting to prevent their invention from blowing up in their faces. They are counting heavily on the Democratic Leadership Council headed by former Virginia Gov. Charles Robb, one of the principal architects of Super Tuesday.

“Democrats have learned that if we aren’t competitive in the South, we won’t be competitive anywhere,” Robb warns. The big Southern vote, Robb contends, is a chance for the party to appeal to a broad electorate and avoid the influence of special-interest groups and their “litmus tests,” which Robb contends are characteristic of the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. Those events precede the Super Tuesday contests.

To exploit that opportunity, the DLC has developed the Super Tuesday Education Project, which calls for candidate forums, voter registration drives and a year-end issues conference at which the DLC will propose plans for the national party platform. “SWAT teams” of prominent Democrats will also meet with local officials around the South.

But the success of such efforts ultimately depends on the Democrats’ offering a candidate or candidates able to appeal to the moderate votes that the DLC seeks to reach. Initially, some Democrats hoped for a Southern “Mr. Right” to fill that gap. But party professionals say that the sole white Southerner in the race, Tennessee’s Gore, has yet to stir much enthusiasm outside his home state.

Robb also has been trying to persuade Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn to enter the race, but Nunn so far has been reluctant to take the plunge. Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton is another possible Southern entrant some feel would have more vitality and appeal than Gore.

But the problem facing Gore, Nunn and Clinton is that they might have great difficulty doing well in the South unless they first demonstrate the credibility of their campaigns by performing respectably in Iowa and New Hampshire, thus adding to the importance of the two states Robb and his allies have been trying to reduce.

Jackson Seen Benefiting

Under the circumstances, some analysts believe that the net result of Super Tuesday will be to benefit Jackson’s candidacy and assure that he will be a powerful factor for Democrats to reckon with at their convention.

Robb vigorously disputes this theory. Though he acknowledges that Jackson will do well in the South no matter who else runs, Robb contends that the scope of the Super Tuesday challenge will undercut Jackson’s greatest strength--”his personal presence and magnetism.” Says Robb: “This time he has to go the wholesale route, which involves money and organization,” factors that are not considered Jackson’s strong points.

Stresses Party Building

Jackson himself, in keeping with the more moderate and statesmanlike image he is trying to create, avoids playing up his potential and instead stresses the need for party building. “The key to Democratic victory is expanded white support,” he says. “Our challenge is to create a common-ground agenda for both black and white voters.”

Meanwhile, the other Democratic contenders are struggling to build good will and an organizational structure in the South--assets they can rely on after Iowa and New Hampshire.

Candidates’ Quandary

“It’s a real dilemma,” says Bill Carrick, campaign manager for Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt. “If you don’t do well in Iowa and New Hampshire you may never make it to Super Tuesday. But if you don’t spend time in the South, you just confirm the view of some that you’re just an early state candidate.”

So far, Gephardt has resolved the dilemma better than most, helped by his relentless energy, his early start and the support of numerous House colleagues around the South.

Biden’s regional coordinator for the South, Pat Baskette, contends that many Southern Democrats are mindful of the impact of Iowa and New Hampshire on the Super Tuesday battle. “Down South, they want to hear how your candidate is doing in Iowa and New Hampshire,” Baskette says. “They want to make sure they can get behind somebody who can win.”

Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis, currently considered to be one of the leading Democratic contenders because of his strength in neighboring New Hampshire and his early success in fund-raising, is little known in the South except as governor of a state whose reputation as a liberal stronghold offends some Southern sensibilities. As part of an effort to overcome such problems and demonstrate his concern with the South, Dukakis has assigned his son, John, a 29-year-old former television and film actor, to man his Southern regional office in Atlanta.

Babbitt to Stress Texas

Former Arizona Gov. Bruce Babbitt, who has particularly limited resources, is going to focus his Super Tuesday efforts on Texas, where he claims a special advantage because of his ties to the Latino community in his home state and in selected spots elsewhere in the region. “The resources to compete are so huge, we think there are going to be multiple winners,” Babbitt campaign manager Fred Duval said.

Illinois Sen. Paul Simon, who is striving in the North to present himself as the natural legatee to the Democratic Party’s past traditions, will try the same tactic in the South. “Jobs, education and long-term health care will play well anywhere in the country,” contends Simon’s press secretary, Jim Killpatrick.

On the Republican side, Bush’s strategists are so confident of the advantage he has gained with his superior resources that they speak of the South as sort of an insurance policy for the vice president’s candidacy. “It gives him a chance to get back in the game” even if he fares poorly in Iowa or New Hampshire, says Bush campaign manager Lee Atwater.

But Bush’s rivals insist that the front-runner cannot escape the effect of a poor showing up North. “You can’t build a fortress in politics,” says Dole adviser Devine, who suggests his candidate may decide to concentrate his efforts in some of the bigger Southern states. “I’m not sure you have to have a full field force in every state,” Devine says.

Kemp adviser John Buckley contends that the ex-football star, who stresses economic growth as a way to broaden the GOP base, has a better opportunity for exploiting a bigger GOP turnout than does Bush. “There is no way Democrats are going to feel motivated to vote for the candidate of the GOP Establishment, George Bush,” Buckley argues.

Robertson Called Wild Card

The Republicans have a wild card in their Super Tuesday deck in the person of television evangelist Pat Robertson. With his own natural constituency among the South’s numerous Christian evangelicals, Robertson is unwilling to concede any ground to anyone, including Bush.

“It is essential that I win in the South or a good portion of it,” Robertson told a press conference here after addressing the U.S. Conference of Mayors. “I am going to be targeting every single state. I am going to have an all-out campaign in every single state.”

Other candidates, such as former Delaware Gov. Pierre S. (Pete) Du Pont IV, without the assets of Bush or Robertson, are going to have to depend mainly on a strong showing in the contests before Super Tuesday.

“My campaign is based on the simple strategy of finishing third in Iowa and better than that in New Hampshire,” Du Pont says. “If we do that, we will be the alternative to whoever is the candidate ahead of us.”