As Panama Unrest Grows, Philippine Parallels Emerge

In the midst of Panama’s political turmoil not long ago, Gen. Manuel A. Noriega, the nation’s strongman-under-siege, gave the following reply to a question that is on the lips of many people here:

“This is not the Philippines, and I am not Ferdinand Marcos,” Noriega told an interviewer from a Mexico City newspaper.

The notion that Noriega might go the way of exiled Philippine President Ferdinand E. Marcos crops up because of evident parallels between the two men and situations.

In Panama, the waving of white handkerchiefs and flags by street demonstrators recalls the yellow banners that became the trademark of Marcos’ foes before his ouster last year.

Noriega’s problems began in much the same way those of Marcos did--with charges of complicity in the assassination of an outspoken political opponent and of electoral fraud and corruption.

But opponents and supporters of Noriega alike say that a quick exit for Noriega, who heads the country’s Defense Forces and who is the power behind the elected civilian government, is not yet likely. Despite a month of almost continuous protests, many of the elements that might force Noriega into exile have yet to fall into place.

Like Marcos, Noriega is a high-profile target for protest. Former government officials assert that he has amassed a fortune worth more than $100 million during his four years in power, not including homes and other real estate he owns in Panama and France. As head of the Defense Forces, which until 1983 was called the National Guard, Noriega makes a yearly salary of $40,000.

Former Noriega associates allege that other income comes from fees paid at the duty-free port of Colon, Panama, as well as from businesses owned by the military, including a television station, liquor stores and about 60 other enterprises.

U.S. officials and Panamanian sources have asserted that Noriega has ties to drug trafficking and to activities that help Cuba circumvent the U.S. embargo on trade with that Communist-led island.

Noriega, 49, also appears to have Marcos-like tastes. His large home in the fashionable Altos De Golf section of Panama City features expensive art and rare tropical birds. He drives an imported West German automobile and favors imported whiskey.

For his daughter’s wedding last week, Noriega sent out invitations in the form of 3,000 personalized bottles of champagne and a pair of crystal champagne glasses.

He has also displayed symptoms of Marcos-style megalomania. For a time, posters bearing Noriega’s portrait with a dove drawn in the background were hung all over Panama City. “Blessed is he who brings peace,” the slogan on the poster said.

During a wave of unrest last week, pictures of Noriega being hugged by admiring supporters filled government-owned newspapers. No pictures of the elected, civilian titular head of state, President Eric A. Delvalle, appeared in those newspapers.

Such self-promotion has earned Noriega ridicule in Panama. Many citizens refer to him as “Pineapple Face,” a reference to his rough complexion, and protesters often parade with pineapples held aloft by machetes.

However, resemblances to Marcos’ style do not necessarily point to a Marcos-style exit. Many of the kinds of forces that came into play in the Philippines are not at full strength here.

The attitude of the United States, which has important stakes in Panama’s stability, is ambiguous. The United States helps train the Defense Forces and maintains military bases near the Panama Canal, which has been under Panamanian sovereignty since 1979. Washington is committed by treaty to turn full operational control of the canal and its defenses over to Panama in the year 2000.

Recent strong talk from Washington about the need to restore democracy to Panama has led many Panamanians to think that the United States is prepared to pressure Noriega out of power.

In a speech last month, Elliott Abrams, assistant secretary of state for inter-American affairs, said that in Panama, “the foremost public issue today is quite simply democracy.”

But Abrams did not go so far as to suggest jettisoning Noriega, which is the principal opposition demand in Panama. Abrams also praised the Defense Forces for making “substantial progress” in supporting civilian rule and preparing to defend the Panama Canal.

In private, State Department officials made clear that Noriega’s ouster is not part of U.S. policy toward Panama.

“The U.S. supports a dialogue of all the parties in Panama, but we cannot set preconditions such as the exclusion of Gen. Noriega from the dialogue,” a State Department official recently told The Times in Washington.

During the past week, U.S. officials here have served as go-betweens, passing messages from Noriega to opposition leaders. On Tuesday, the American Embassy’s deputy chief of mission delivered an invitation from Noriega to the opposition for talks. On Thursday, U.S. Ambassador Arthur Davis cautioned protest leaders that the Defense Forces had told him to expect violence during Friday’s anti-government demonstration.

Violence did take place when the Defense Forces prevented protesters from holding a large planned rally by dispersing marchers with tear gas, clubs and birdshot.

The opposition itself, although growing, has not yet become strong enough to topple Noriega. The visible activist opposition is made up of more than 100 professional and business organizations grouped in the self-described National Civic Crusade. Demonstrations led by the crusade have kept the country unsettled for more than a month.

However, since the early days of the protests, the crusade has been unable to rally support from Panama’s working-class poor. The poor, crusade leaders say, are more vulnerable to attacks from the Defense Forces than the well-scrubbed students and middle- and upper-class citizens who have been doing most of the public protesting.

“On us, the soldiers use birdshot,” said Gilberto Mallol, one of the crusade leaders. “On the poor, they use real bullets.”

The crusade’s strongest weapon would seem to be the disruption of Panama’s economy, but there is some question about the willingness of opposition businessmen to use such a weapon fully by calling for prolonged commercial closures and slowdowns.

“These things are a problem for businessmen,” one local banker said. “They count the costs in dollars and are not sure they want to pay.”

Nonetheless, the turbulence has the potential for frightening businesses and bank accounts away from Panama, which is a major international banking center.

Foreign observers speculate that a deteriorating economy, with its potential to reduce government revenues, could encourage Noriega’s colleagues within the military to seek his expulsion.

But hopes that the military might act are purely speculative. So far, no one here sees signs of a split in the military, something many Panamanians think would have to happen for Noriega to be forced out.

For the moment, Noriega also counts on the support of Panama’s political left. Leftists and Marxists hold important positions in the military-backed Democratic Revolutionary Party, which controls the nation’s legislature.

In return for their support, leftist members of the party are pressing Noriega to relieve austerity measures that were imposed on the country to clean up Panama’s finances and win new terms for its heavy foreign debt.

Other left-leaning Noriega backers say they support his rule because they believe Panama forms part of a diplomatic shield against U.S. policy toward Nicaragua.

Panama belongs to the so-called Contadora Group of four Latin American nations that have been trying for several years to negotiate a settlement to various Central American conflicts, especially the U.S.-backed revolt of the contras against the Marxist-led Sandinista government in Nicaragua.

“We don’t like Noriega, but his foreign policy protects Nicaragua,” said Enrique Martinez, a prominent Marxist in the Democratic Revolutionary Party. The governments of both Cuba and Nicaragua have announced support for Noriega and blame his troubles on U.S. intervention.

All sides seem to agree that efforts to oust Noriega will continue. The Civic Crusade has rejected all talks with the government or the military until Noriega steps down.

“We will speak to lower-ranking officers in the Defense Forces only when Noriega is gone,” crusade leader Mallol said.