Poll Shows First-Term Senator No Longer a Shoo-In : Wilson May Find Himself in a Race

A few months ago, Republican U.S. Sen. Pete Wilson looked unbeatable in 1988 to most California political professionals--and with good reason.

Wilson, elected in 1982, has avoided “the big mistake” that all politicians fear, the kind of gaffe or event that drives up voters’ negative opinions. He has worked hard in Washington and spent hundreds of hours meeting with constituents in California. And, more than a year before his election, he is sitting on a $2-million campaign war chest.

But now it looks as if a race is shaping up for the Wilson seat.

“It appears that Wilson is more vulnerable than we had thought in January,” said Mark DiCamillo, managing director of the independent California Poll, which just did a survey on the Wilson race that had some bad news for the senator.

In that poll, Wilson got less than 50% of the vote when matched up with two potential Democratic opponents.

Against Secretary of State March Fong Eu, Wilson won the match-up 45% to 39% with 16% undecided. Against Lt. Gov. Leo T. McCarthy, Wilson won 47% to 37% with 16% undecided.

“Any time an incumbent is under 50% you’ve got potential problems,” said San Francisco Democratic consultant Clinton Reilly, who also said he thought Wilson would still be tough to beat because of the money he will probably have available for television commercials.

California Poll founder Mervin Field said there was another “cause for worry for Wilson in our latest survey. Any incumbent should be well ahead of potential rivals 15 months from the election--the norm in my mind is 20%.”

Beyond the poll--which is a rough measure at best this far from the election--there is the fact that there has been a shift in the public’s mood after seven years of the Reagan presidency, a presidency Wilson has staunchly supported. Not only has Reagan’s own popularity dipped because of the Iran- contra affair, but poll after poll shows the public longing for a more compassionate, activist government.

So, Wilson may have to buck a Democratic trend in 1988.

More specific to Wilson, however, is the problem he may have created for himself by being so low-key in his first Senate term.

“Pete is unique in that I don’t know of any other statewide officeholder who, after five years in office, still does not have a well-defined image,” Field said.

The California Poll has consistently found that a third of the public does not know enough about Wilson to have an opinion--an unusually high number for a senator. The good news for Wilson is that among those who do have an opinion, the appraisal is overwhelmingly favorable.

To the latter group, DiCamillo said, Wilson comes across as “straightforward” and “probably doing a good job.” But few could mention anything specific.

DiCamillo added that “the leading unfavorable thing that was said about Wilson (by poll respondents) is that they don’t know where he stands.”

That could mean trouble for Wilson because Democratic political consultants have become the leaders in their profession at defining opponents before they can define themselves. This strong-attack technique worked extremely well for the Democrats when they recaptured the Senate from the Republicans in 1986.

Know Where They Stand

“Two of the most successful politicians in California history are Ronald Reagan and Alan Cranston,” said media consultant Kam Kuwata, who helped get Cranston elected to a fourth Senate term in 1986. “In both cases, you may not always agree with them, but you know where they stand. You cannot say the same for Pete Wilson.”

Two things probably account for this.

First, when Wilson defeated former Gov. Edmund G. Brown Jr. in 1982, he concluded that Californians had grown tired of controversial officeholders such as Brown--and former Sens. S. I. Hayakawa, a Republican, and John V. Tunney, a Democrat, both of whom once held Wilson’s Senate seat.

So Wilson went off to Washington vowing to become a workhorse rather than a show horse and to focus his first term on California problems rather than trying to grab headlines on national issues.

But the result has been press releases with headlines such as “Wilson Succeeds in Amending Farm Trade Legislation to Update Wine Equity Act”--not the sort of thing that generates a lot of publicity.

Balancing Act

Second, Wilson has had to perform a delicate balancing act in the California Republican Party because his views on social issues and the environment are more liberal than those of conservative party members.

He has managed to keep the right happy by strongly supporting the Reagan Administration’s fiscal policy, the Strategic Defense Initiative and the Nicaraguan contras.

The strategy has apparently worked, because he has no apparent challenger for next June’s primary election. But the image that has emerged from this high-wire walk has been somewhat muddled.

Otto Bos, Wilson’s top adviser, acknowledged this week that the senator faces a struggle. “We have always said this would be a fierce fight. I would be kidding you if I didn’t say (losing) is possible. But I don’t think it’s probable.”

Bos added: “We are in better shape than any of the incumbents in this seat in the last 20 years. By this time they were facing major primary fights. We do not. And we have more resources (money).”

Has Been Underestimated

Bos and others who have watched Wilson’s career also note that he has been underestimated ever since he ran for the state Assembly and won in 1966. Later, when he ran for mayor of San Diego, some failed to take him seriously at first, but he won that, too, and kept the job 12 years.

One key Wilson supporter, Gordon Luce, chairman and chief executive officer of Great American First Savings Bank in San Diego, admitted in an interview during the 1982 Senate race that Wilson’s friends sometimes worried about his low-key style and felt as if they had to “help him along.”

But Luce said this week he believes that Wilson has proved himself after five years in the Senate.

“Pete has grown a great deal . . . and he is now a man in charge of his own destiny,” Luce said.

And that may be the crucial factor in 1988, according to Field.

“In 1982, people were voting up or down on Jerry Brown,” Field said. This time around, he said, Wilson has to make it a positive vote for Pete Wilson.