More AIDS Cases in Orange County, but Rate Slackens

Orange County has recorded 312 AIDS deaths since 1980, but the incidence of new cases has slowed slightly, health officials said Wednesday.

The county has logged 515 cases of acquired immune deficiency syndrome, 174 so far this year, in contrast with 161 in all of 1986, Orange County Health Care Agency records show.

Continuing a pattern that emerged in 1980, the county’s rate of AIDS cases is expected to double over the previous year, county epidemiologist Dr. Thomas J. Prendergast said.

Despite a recent slowing in the rate, he said: “I don’t think we can say we have peaked yet. . . . We are still increasing at the same incredible exponential rate we started off with (in 1980). . . . It’s horrible when you’re talking about people dying in every one of all these cases.”

Prendergast said he believes that the rate of AIDS cases has peaked in New York, San Francisco and nationally, but that in Orange County the rate will probably continue to climb for some time.

County health officials said they believe the reason AIDS is increasing more rapidly in Orange County than in cities like San Francisco is that AIDS has reached a saturation point among high-risk groups. Orange County, as a more conservative community, has been a few years behind the national trend from the beginning of the epidemic in the early 1980s, they said.

Orange County AIDS coordinator Penny C. Weismuller released the county’s latest figures on AIDS Wednesday afternoon, at the regular monthly meeting of ACTION (AIDS Coalition to Identify Orange County Needs). The 30-member group consists of AIDS educators, health professionals and individuals concerned about the spread of AIDS in Orange County.

Weismuller’s figures are part of the county’s official registry of cases involving Human Immunodeficiency Virus, the virus that causes AIDS.

The figures show that since 1980, Orange County has recorded 158 cases of people whose blood has tested positive for the HIV virus, but who have not developed AIDS or AIDS-related illnesses.

However, of those who tested positive, nine have died--some by suicide when they learned their test results, Weismuller said. Another four who tested positive have developed AIDS; six have developed AIDS-related symptoms, Weismuller said.

The registry offered a demographic breakdown of the 476 AIDS cases recorded through July 1.

Of those, 2.5% of cases reportedly involved heterosexuals, seven of them men and five women.

“In some of those (12) cases there may be skepticism concerning whether the virus may actually have been transmitted by homosexual contact or by intravenous drug use,” Prendergast said.

“But the bottom line is there’s no question the virus transmits occasionally in heterosexual contacts.”

Homosexual Rate Highest

Continuing early patterns for AIDS in Orange County, nearly 70%, or 331, of the cases tracked from 1980 through July 1 involved homosexuals, according to the registry.

Other Orange County figures through July 1 included:

- Ninety-eight cases, or 20.6%, reported among bisexuals.

- Eleven cases, or 2.3%, among intravenous drug users. Nine were men and two women.

- Eight cases, or 1.7%, among adult hemophiliacs.

- Another eight cases among adult blood transfusion recipients.

The registry recorded two categories of AIDS cases involving children. Children with hemophilia accounted for 0.2% of total AIDS cases since 1980, with just one such case recorded, involving a boy. Children who had received transfusions accounted for another 0.2%, with just one case recorded, this one involving a girl.

In another 1.3% of the adult cases, involving six men, the method of AIDS transmission was unknown, the registry reported.

The registry also reported county AIDS cases by ethnic group. In Orange County, 413 cases through July 1 or 86.8% involved white patients. Latinos were a distant second, with 48 cases. Blacks accounted for 10 cases; five cases were attributed to “other” ethnic groups.

The greatest number of cases occurred in the 30-to-39-year-old group, with 208 cases reported through July 1, or 43.7% of all county AIDS cases. The next largest group was in the 40-49-year bracket, which accounted for 107 cases, or 22.5%, of all AIDS cases through July 1.

Variations in Age Groups

Among adults ages 20-29, there were 98 cases, or 20.6% of the total cases, the registry reported.

In other age groups, the numbers were much smaller: 44 cases among patients 50-59 years old; 14 cases 60-69 years; two cases 70-79 years; one case 13-19 years; and two cases among children younger than 13.

In other reports involving AIDS cases from 1980 through Wednesday, the registry noted 219 cases of AIDS Related Complex (ARC). These are cases that meet a National Center for Disease Control definition of an AIDS-related illness. According to the CDC’s definition, Prendergast said, such patients must have at least two of these symptoms: prolonged diarrhea, weight loss of at least 15 pounds or recurring fever of 101 degrees or more. They also must test positive on at least two of six laboratory tests for AIDS-related disease, Prendergast said.

Of those with ARC, 11 Orange County patients have died since 1980, and another 85 have developed AIDS, Weismuller’s report said.

The registry also recorded 604 cases of patients with AIDS Related Findings--cases of patients who have some symptoms of ARC, but do not yet meet the official CDC definition for AIDS Related Complex, Prendergast said.

Of cases in the AIDS Related Findings category, 17 people have died since 1980; 50 have gone on to develop AIDS, nine have developed AIDS Related Complex, and one was ruled out as an AIDS-related disease, Weismuller said.

AIDS CASES ON RISE IN ORANGE COUNTY

Orange County officials say 515 AIDS cases have been reported since 1980; 312 patients have died. In that same period, 219 cases of ARC (AIDS related complex) have been reported; 11 of those patients have died and 85 have been reclassified as having AIDS. The number of AIDS cases have increased in the county over the past few months, peaking in May with 29.

AIDS transmission among adults Homosexual 69.5 % Bisexual 20.6% Heterosexual 2.5% IV drug user 2.3% Hemophiliac 1.7% Transfusion 1.7% Unknown/Pending 1.3% AIDS cases by ethnic group White 86.8% Latino 10.1% Black 2.1% Other 1.15 Source: Orange County HIV Case Registry