Peronist ‘Reformers’ Keep the Focus on Democracy

The setback suffered by President Raul Alfonsin’s party in Sunday’s elections and the unexpected strength of a revamped Peronist movement are a mixed blessing for Argentina’s struggle to maintain a viable democracy. The election of Peronist governors in 16 of 22 provinces and the Radical Party’s lost hopes for a majority in the lower house of Congress reaffirmed the health of the pluralist system. On the other hand, the lack of one dominant party will make it difficult for Alfonsin to implement a coherent and effective economic program and to deal with the continued unrest within the military.

Anyone who remembers the euphoria of Alfonsin’s historic victory in the 1983 presidential elections has to wonder: How could he and his party have lost so much ground in such a short time?

First, the circumstances of Sunday’s election varied dramatically from those of the previous two elections. In 1983 Alfonsin was perceived as the only candidate who was capable of besting the old guard that was still in charge of the Peronist movement; a vote for Alfonsin was as much a vote against violence and anarchy associated with the legacy of Juan Peron as it was a vote for his candidacy. The congressional elections of November, 1985, took place in the wake of an economic overhaul that seemed to be bringing down inflation. At the same time, trials were under way for members of the military juntas that ruled during the “dirty war” of 1976-83. Both events enhanced Alfonsin’s personal stature and Argentina’s prestige, which was duly reflected at the polls.

The situation during the past several months, however, has been significantly different. The monthly inflation rate reached double-digit figures in July, and problems with the management of the country’s estimated $54-billion debt have increased. Although Alfonsin initially capitalized on the Easter Week uprising of dissidents within the military, his support from the center-left began to erode as news leaked out concerning behind-the-scenes deals. The left’s support disintegrated with the passage of government-sponsored legislation granting what was in effect an amnesty for hundreds of lower-ranking officials who had been accused of human-rights violations during the military rule. As the impression of a government with no clear or coherent economic and political policy grew, so did voter disenchantment, which in the end not even Alfonsin’s personal popularity was able to overcome.

The damage spread to Alfonsin’s Radical Party when he chose a powerful Peronist union leader, Carlos Alderete, as his labor minister. While Alderete was able to prevent politically damaging strikes, he did so by caving in to the wage demands of a number of Argentina’s larger unions, which served to further fuel the rapidly accelerating inflation rate. Many Radical supporters on the center-right saw this as contrary to the government’s previously articulated policies of reining in the unions and cutting the public deficit.

Argentines also were growing impatient with the Radicals’ tendency to brand any criticism of the government’s policy as anti-democratic or “destabilizing,” as if the party were the sole repository of Argentine democracy.

Finally, the Peronists themselves made great strides in shedding that movement’s traditional fascist and authoritarian image. Led by Antonio Cafiero, the governor-elect of the province of Buenos Aires, the Renovadores (reformers) wrested control of the movement from the old-line bosses, implemented sweeping internal reforms and turned the Peronists’ political ideology further to the left--but they did publicly reject political support that was offered by the Montoneros, Argentina’s former guerrilla organization.

The Peronist reformers based their movement on appealing to a middle-class increasingly disillusioned with the failure of government economic policies. A pillar of their campaign platform was the radicalization of Argentina’s position toward its international creditors and the International Monetary Fund, including the suspension of all payments on the country’s foreign debt. Fears of the pressure that the Peronists might exercise to bring that about had already led to a sharp drop in the Argentine stock market and a run on the country’s currency, the austral.

The Peronists’ strong performance also has put Alfonsin’s political future in doubt. In a country where the concept of the leader, of el caudillo , remains strong, many in the Radical Party are pushing for a constitutional reform to implement a parliamentary system of government. Many opponents, however, see the proposal as a means of keeping the Radical Party’s leader in power beyond 1989, when, under the provisions of the current constitution, he will be forced to step down without the possibility of seeking reelection. It can be expected that the Peronists also will oppose the proposed change, simply to have Alfonsin out of the running for 1989.

There is, however, another Radical who appears to be capable of thwarting the Peronists’ presidential ambition: Eduardo Angeloz, the governor of Cordoba, whose appeal among center-right voters was demonstrated in his reelection Sunday.

Despite the uncertainty generated by Sunday’s outcome, solace can be found in Argentina’s latest attempt at consolidating democracy: The political discourse there continues to focus on the next election and not on the next military coup.