Robertson May Be the One for the Frustrated Right

So far there have been two tests of strength in the race for the 1988 Republican presidential nomination. And Marion G. (Pat) Robertson has won them both.

Last year the Robertson forces scored an upset in the Michigan Republican precinct caucuses by electing about the same number of delegates as were picked for Vice President George Bush. Then, earlier this month, Robertson came in first in a straw poll sponsored by the Iowa Republican Party in which more than 3,800 partisans participated.

But this doesn’t mean that Robertson has suddenly caught on with Republican voters. In fact, the Virginia minister and religious broadcaster continues to draw exceptionally high negative responses from the party rank-and-file. Nor does it mean that front-runner Bush is collapsing in the polls. The Gallup Organization’s latest poll of Republicans puts Bush’s support at 40%, which is twice the support of his leading rival, Sen. Bob Dole of Kansas (19%), and far ahead of Rep. Jack F. Kemp of New York (9%) and Robertson (8%).

It also doesn’t mean that the evangelical movement has rallied to the Robertson cause. Born-again white Christians, who are about 15% of the national electorate, remain deeply divided in both religion and politics. According to the polls, only a minority of evangelicals are Republicans, and most remain skeptical of the Robertson candidacy.

Robertson’s early success signifies restiveness on the Right. Religious conservatives and New Right activists remain disappointed in President Reagan’s record and frustrated by the Administration’s apparent sell-out to the Establishment in the wake of the Iran- contra scandal. Last month they were angered by Reagan’s endorsement of a Central American peace plan. Now they are nervous about the pending arms-control agreement with the Soviet Union.

While conservatives hope that Robert H. Bork may give them their long-awaited majority on the Supreme Court, they are uneasy about his apparent “confirmation conversion” during the Senate Judiciary Committee hearings. After waiting seven years for action on the social agenda, conservatives were discouraged to hear Bork say that as a Supreme Court justice he would not be guided by a “desire to set the social agenda for the nation.”

Moreover, neither Bush nor Dole is entirely trusted by the Right. The two leading Republicans are relatively recent converts to the conservative faith, and both retain strong ties to the party Establishment. Kemp’s campaign has so far failed to take off, possibly because his message of confidence and optimism fails to connect with the prevailing mood on the Right.

Which leaves Robertson as the one authentic voice of conservative frustration. His early success means that his candidacy must be taken seriously, even if he is not.

The same thing happens every time Republicans are in power. After six years in office, the party experiences a serious electoral setback and conservative hopes are dashed. It happened during the Eisenhower Administration after the disastrous losses in the 1958 midterm elections. Conservatives felt angry, embittered, frustrated and betrayed. During the 1960 presidential campaign they were outraged by the “Pact of Fifth Avenue” between Richard M. Nixon and Nelson A. Rockefeller. In the view of many conservatives the GOP, in losing the presidential election that year, was punished for its sins and cleansed of its impurities. The Right then picked up the pieces and nominated Barry Goldwater in 1964.

The cycle repeated during the Nixon-Ford Administrations, and when President Ford lost in 1976 the conservatives were there to pick up the pieces and nominate Reagan in 1980.

After six years of Reagan came the loss of the Senate in 1986 and then the Iran-contra affair. As the Administration scrambled to regain the Establishment’s confidence, the cycle of frustration and bitterness began again. If the party nominates Bush in 1988, the conservatives expect that the party will be punished and cleansed. And they will be there to pick up the pieces four years later.

Meanwhile, Robertson is the candidate who comes closest to expressing what conservatives really feel--disillusionment and resentment. But he also has very high negative ratings among Republicans who have heard of him, according to an August poll for Time magazine.

So far the main effect of Robertson’s success has been to embarrass Bush. And that is precisely why Kemp and Dole have encouraged the Robertson movement and sought alliances with it.

What would energize the religious Right and make Robertson a real threat to the GOP? A Senate rejection of Bork would probably do very nicely.