Democrats Waver in Poll for President : In Contrast, County Republicans Surveyed Support Bush by 38%

Like other members of their party nationwide, Orange County Democrats are decidedly undecided about who should be their next presidential candidate, according to the Orange County Annual Survey completed Sept. 20.

The Rev. Jesse Jackson led the field of candidates in the survey, with the support of 16% of the registered Democrats who were questioned. All other Democratic candidates received less than 10%, and 42% of the Democrats polled said they had not yet made a choice.

“If your name is ‘I don’t know,’ you stand a good chance of winning the Democratic presidential nomination in Orange County,” concluded Mark Baldassare, director of the Orange County Annual Survey and a professor of social ecology at UC Irvine.

Only 20% Undecided

In contrast, the survey indicated that only 20% of Orange County Republicans are undecided. Thirty-eight per cent favored Vice President George Bush as the nominee, closely following a recent nationwide Gallup poll that put Bush at 40%. Kansas Sen. Bob Dole was a distant second in the Orange County survey with 18%, and all other candidates, including Rep. Jack Kemp of New York, received less than 10%.

“This is surprising since Bush is more moderate and Orange County tends to vote on the conservative side,” Baldassare said. “But it’s probably best explained by the fact that Orange Countians want to maintain the political atmosphere of the Reagan Administration, which Bush has been a part of these last eight years.”

However, it is still early, and both Dole and Kemp are planning to wage active campaigns in the county.

Brandon Birtcher, Orange County chairman for Kemp’s campaign, likened a poll at this time to baseball statistics the week after the season has opened.

“It could tell you how a candidate has done in training camp, but it has little to do with what they’re going to experience on the way to the pennant,” he said.

The survey of 1,010 households also included questions about the quality of life in Orange County. It was conducted by phone, and only those who indicated that they were either registered Republicans or Democrats were polled.

2 Candidates Drop Out

Since the survey was concluded, two Democratic candidates have dropped out of the running--Delaware Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Colorado Rep. Patricia Schroeder. Those remaining are Jackson, Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis, Rep. Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri, former Arizona Gov. Bruce Babbitt, Illinois Sen. Paul Simon and Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr.

Baldassare said that Jackson, who ran for President in 1984, is the best-known Democratic candidate, and thus his support can be considered fairly solid. But it is not likely to increase as the campaign goes on and other candidates become better known, he said.

Baldassare said the survey indicates that unless the Democratic Party comes up with a candidate who is more appealing to Orange County Democrats, they are likely to end up supporting the Republican candidate, as many have in the last two presidential elections.

But Orange County Democratic Party Chairman John Hanna said that, although he agreed that most Democrats were “still shopping,” he does not see any indication of “a massive crossover as we saw in Orange County for Ronald Reagan.”

Hanna said the survey reflected mostly that voters were not that familiar with any of the candidates other than Jackson.

“In California, the campaigns have been much less toward the general public than toward the contributors,” Hanna said.

This is because California’s June 7 primary is among the last in the nation. To survive long enough to have a chance to campaign here, candidates must do well in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary in February, and the so-called “Super Tuesday” primaries in the South and other states on March 8.

Hart Called a Factor

The Orange County survey indicates that undecided Democrats appear to outnumber their fellow party members nationwide by about 9%. Baldassare attributes this to the strong support in Orange County for Gary Hart, who dropped out of the race in May after stories that he had spent a weekend with a Miami model.

“Hart had a lot of followers and supporters here,” Baldassare said. “With his departure from the race, no one else has taken his place.”

In all, 504 Republicans were polled, for a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5%, and 285 Democrats were questioned, for a margin of error of plus or minus 6%.

The Orange County Annual Survey, which is privately funded by three local sponsors and 34 subscribers, has been conducted at UC Irvine since 1982. Complete results of the survey, which also questions local residents’ views about the national and local economy, housing, transportation and general quality of life in Orange County, will be announced later this year.

HOW THE PARTIES DIVIDE THEIR VOTES

The Orange County Annual Survey finds Vice President George Bush to be the top choice for the 1988 GOP presidetial nomination among Orange County Republicans. On the Democratic side, Jesse Jackson is leading the field, but 42% of the voters say they are undecided. A total of 1,010 households were contacted by phone in the survey, conducted earlier this month. Only registered voter’ responses were tallied.

DEMOCRATS

Jackson 16 %

Dukakis 9%

Simon 4%

Gephardt 3%

Babbitt 2%

Gore 2%

Schroeder 4%*

Biden 6%*

Others 12%

Don’t Know 42% * Withdrew from consideration

REPUBLICANS

Bush 38%

Dole 18%

Kemp 8%

Haig 3%

Robertson 5%

Others 8%

Don’t Know 20%