The Times Poll : Americans Look More Favorably on Soviets

Americans no longer think of the Soviet Union as an “evil empire,” and they strongly support the treaty banning ground-launched intermediate-range nuclear missiles, but they are not starry-eyed about an improved relationship between Washington and Moscow, The Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

Politically, President Reagan’s personal popularity received a significant boost from his summit meeting Dec. 7-10 with Soviet leader Mikhail S. Gorbachev, reaching heights he has not enjoyed since the Iran-Contra scandal erupted 13 months ago, the nationwide survey showed.

And the popularity of the arms control treaty Reagan and Gorbachev signed was demonstrated when nearly one in four Republicans and independents said that if conservative GOP senators block ratification of the pact, “this issue alone would be enough” to cause them to vote for the Democratic presidential candidate in 1988.

Additionally, Republicans by an 8 to 1 ratio and Democrats by 15 to 1 said they would be “more likely” rather than “less likely” to vote for a presidential candidate who supports the treaty. This public sentiment may have been in the mind of Senate Republican Leader Bob Dole, a candidate for the GOP nomination, when on Thursday, after a long delay, he enthusiastically endorsed the pact with Reagan standing at his side.

However, Vice President George Bush is the only Republican candidate to have unequivocally endorsed the agreement. Dole said he would seek some minor changes, and the other four GOP contenders have expressed opposition to the treaty in its present form. All the Democratic presidential candidates, on the other hand, support the pact.

People in this poll overwhelmingly said the treaty should be ratified--72% to 11%, with 17% undecided.

The Times Poll interviewed 1,826 American adults for five nights beginning Dec. 10, making the first telephone calls about the time Gorbachev was leaving Washington after the summit had ended. The margin of error is 3% in either direction.

“People seem to be prepared to enter a new era in Soviet-American relations, but they have not put out of their minds the many real conflicts that have to be resolved in order for this to happen,” Times Poll Director I. A. Lewis said. “There are a number of specific problems that this new ‘feel-good’ foreign policy is not going to sweep under the carpet.”

Guardedly Optimistic

Evidence of a new, guardedly optimistic era in American public opinion about the Soviet Union was found in answers to the question, “Do you believe the Soviet Union is an evil empire that threatens our moral and religious values?” A clear majority of people--57%--answered that they do not, with just 32% saying they do. This relatively upbeat attitude toward Moscow was expressed by Democrats and Republicans alike.

It was the other way around three years ago when people told The Times Poll, by 55% to 38%, that they considered the Soviet Union to be an “evil empire.” And just before the first Reagan-Gorbachev summit, in November, 1985, Americans still regarded the Soviet Union as “evil,” although by a narrower margin of 49% to 43%. It was Reagan in March, 1983, who initially denounced the Soviet Union as “an evil empire” and its Communist regime as “the focus of evil in the modern world.”

There also were other signs in this survey of improved feelings toward Moscow: While half the people described U.S.-Soviet relations as “unfriendly,” two-thirds of them did two years ago. And fewer than a third in this poll believed that “someday we’ll have to fight the Russians in order to stop communism,” but two years ago half thought so.

The summit drew high marks from the public, with 72% calling it a success and only 8% considering it a failure.

Gorbachev likewise scored big, with 58% of the people voicing a favorable impression of him, against only 16% unfavorable. By contrast, sentiment toward the Soviet leader immediately prior to the first summit two years ago was 33% favorable and 18% unfavorable, with 49% not sure.

Strong Strain of Pragmatism

But Americans clearly are not Pollyannaish when it comes to assessing U.S.-Soviet relations. There may be some euphoria, but there also is a strong strain of pragmatism.

For example, when people were asked whether they believed “the United States will be able to verify with any accuracy whether the Russians are complying” with the treaty, more people thought the treaty could be verified than thought it could not--but by just five percentage points.

And people also were of two minds when asked to what extent they “would be willing to give the Russians the benefit of the doubt about complying with a nuclear weapons agreement.” Nearly half said they would want to be “100% certain” that the Kremlin was complying, but almost as many were willing to accept far less certainty in exchange for obtaining a treaty.

By 3 to 1, however, people said that in order to assure compliance with the pact they would favor “more extensive on-site inspections,” by both Soviets inside the United States and Americans inside the Soviet Union.

A majority of people (52%) theorized that eliminating nuclear arms would “lead to peace,” regardless of the argument that these frightening weapons have “kept the peace” for the last four decades because of the fear that their use could destroy civilization. Only 17% believed their elimination ultimately would lead to war.

‘Promising Experiment’

And 61% characterized the elimination of ground-launched intermediate-range nuclear missiles as “a promising experiment.”

Nevertheless, more people than not (47% to 36%) thought Reagan should “have insisted that the Russians reduce their conventional military forces in Europe” before signing the agreement eliminating the intermediate-range nuclear weapons.

Likewise, they tended to believe (43% to 38%) that Reagan should have insisted that the Soviets withdraw from conflicts in Afghanistan, Angola, Cambodia, Ethiopia and Nicaragua before signing the pact. But even if Soviet troops were pulled out of Afghanistan, two-thirds of the people said, they could not be trusted to leave behind anything but “a puppet government.”

At the end of the summit, Reagan and Gorbachev also reported making significant progress toward an agreement on a treaty slashing in half the superpowers’ awesome arsenals of long-range nuclear weapons, their most powerful arms. Americans know much less about this proposed pact, according to The Times’ survey. Three-fourths of those interviewed (74%) had no opinion about it; of those who did, the proposal was favored roughly 3 to 1.

But two-thirds of the people (65%) favored continual development of Reagan’s controversial Strategic Defense Initiative, commonly called “Star Wars.” Only one in five (21%) thought the proposed missile defense system should be abandoned.

‘Star Wars’ Bargaining

People were much more divided, however, on whether “when the time is ripe, ‘Star Wars’ should be used as a bargaining chip to win further concessions from the Russians.” The bargaining chip approach was favored by 45% and opposed by 38%. Reagan has said that “Star Wars” is not negotiable.

Some right-wing conservatives have accused Reagan of selling out to the Kremlin and becoming an apologist for Gorbachev, but rank-and-file Republicans apparently disagree emphatically. Asked whether Reagan “has betrayed his earliest supporters” by signing the arms pact, Republicans replied “no” by 11 to 1 (78% to 7%).

Neither did Republicans think that Reagan had “given up too much because he was too anxious to get an agreement from Gorbachev.” Only 23% agreed with that statement while 63% disagreed. Democrats and independents felt the same way, but not quite as overwhelmingly (29% to 53%).

Among all those surveyed, the vast majority said Reagan now “is deliberately trying to take advantage of an opportunity” to further reduce nuclear arms by achieving a landmark treaty on long-range weapons, rather than “launching recklessly into an agreement that could end up jeopardizing American national security” (58% to 19%).

A slim majority (51%) believed the 76-year-old President “was a match” for the Soviet leader when they met alone, while about a third (32%) believed “Gorbachev may have been too persuasive because of his forceful personality.”

Arms Familiarity

Three-fourths (76%) were confident that Reagan keeps himself “familiar” with the complexities of nuclear arms control.

The public’s overall impression of Reagan in this survey was 67% favorable, 28% unfavorable. By contrast, last July in a Times Poll, it was 58% favorable, 38% unfavorable.

Similarly, asked to assess how Reagan “is handling his job as President,” people approved by 60% to 31%. This is Reagan’s highest job rating, as measured by The Times Poll, in nearly two years. Just last month, his rating was 53% favorable, 37% unfavorable.

The public now tends to think that the GOP is the political party “which would do the best job of negotiating nuclear weapons control”--an issue that traditionally has helped Democratic candidates. In this poll, 39% gave the nod to the Republican Party and 22% to the Democrats, with 39% not sure.

VIEWS ON THE SUMMIT AND INTERMEDIATE NUCLEAR FORES TREATY

Do you think the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which scraps all intermediate-range nuclear weapons, leaves our NATO allies less protected in Europe or not?YES 35% NO 44% NO OPINION 21%

Before President Reagan signed the INF agreement, do you think he should have. . . . . .insisted that the Soviet Union withdraw from regional conflicts in Afghanistan, Angola, Cambodia, Ethiopia, and Nicaragua?YES 43% NO 38% NO OPINION 19%

. . . Insisted that the Soviets reduce their conventional military forces in Europe? YES 47% NO 36% NO OPINION 17%

Should the Senate ratify the agreement? YES 72% NO 11% NO OPINION 17%

?Which of the two leaders at the summit would you say is more seriously commited to nuclear arms control, President Reagan or General Secretary Mikhail S. Gorbachev? REAGAN 49% GORBACHEV 18% EQUALLY 18% NO OPINION 15%

Do you think President Reagan should be considered for the Nobel Peace Prize?YES 20% NO 69% NO OPINION 11%

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll