Who’ll Rock Into 21st-Century Hall of Fame?

Everybody knows the 40 or so remaining names from the ‘60s who will be inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame as soon as they become eligible: the Rolling Stones, Jimi Hendrix, the Who, Stevie Wonder, Janis Joplin and. . . . Well, just fill in blanks.

It’s easy to look back and see who were our most inspired and inspiring artists.

But what about the future?

Which of today’s stars are likely to be chosen by the Hall of Fame judges in the 21st Century? And we are talking 21st Century in many cases.

Under the Hall of Fame guidelines, an artist doesn’t become eligible for induction until 25 years after his/her recording debut. A band like R.E.M., which released its first single in 1981, won’t be eligible until 2006. A group that makes its debut this year can’t be inducted until 2013.

That’s a long time in the fickle world of rock, but a look at how the Hall of Fame judges have chosen their first 30 inductees offers a clue to future selections.

In most cases, the judges (chiefly recording executives, musicians and critics) have favored critically admired artists rather than simply best sellers.

That’s why rockabilly star Carl Perkins--who had only one Top 20 hit--and R & B singer Clyde McPhatter--who registered only four as a solo artist--have been voted into the Hall of Fame over ‘50s hit makers like Pat Boone and Paul Anka (with 26 and 21 Top 20 singles, respectively).

These examples aren’t meant to be a self-serving salute to the power of critics. The point isn’t even that the Hall of Fame judges follow critics closely, but that they--as serious students of rock--apply many of the same standards to recording artists. They prize artists with the originality and vision to shape music, not those who merely recycle what has already proven successful.

There was no rock criticism, for all practical purposes, in the ‘50s, but over the last two decades a critical consensus has grown up around ‘50s artists, and a similar consensus exists for artists of the ‘60s and ‘70s, and for some artists of the ‘80s.

The danger in forecasting what might happen two decades from now is that reputations can suddenly rise (the odds on John Cougar Mellencamp’s getting into the Hall of Fame were around 2% before the “Scarecrow” album) or suddenly fall (Boy George’s early projections, based on the impact of his first two LPs with Culture Club, may have been as high as 35%).

Yet it is clear that some artists, through originality of stance or simply expanse of talent, have had such a profound influence on pop music that they are virtually guaranteed a place in the Hall of Fame regardless of what happens later in their careers. Current examples: Michael Jackson and Prince.

The hardest part of evaluating the chances of contemporary artists is the matter of influence. Taking the Carl Perkins example again, it’s easy to look back and see his influence. The Beatles recorded three of his songs, and various other Hall of Fame cinches, including John Fogerty and Eric Clapton, have cited his influence.

But how could you tell at the time that Perkins or another modest ‘50s seller like Eddie Cochran would inspire future generations of rockers? Once again, the matters of originality and vision come into play. Regardless of how their records sold, artists like Perkins, Cochran and Gene Vincent were widely admired by aspiring young musicians and the fledgling crop of rock ‘n’ roll producers.

In other words, Perkins and Cochran were leaders from the beginning in rock. Few who followed rock religiously in the ‘50s were surprised when these artists were voted into the Hall of Fame over the Boones, Ankas and Avalons.

This history suggests that today’s most influential or respected artists will also be the ones who will stand the test of time.

Here’s an estimate of the Hall of Fame chances of a cross-section of more than three dozen of today’s pop heroes. On the never-say-never theory, the scale runs from 1% (you must be dreaming) to 99% (a virtual cinch). An asterisk is placed by the scores of certain new artists as a reminder that the score could go up or down 20 points depending on the quality of the next album.

The list centers on artists who have registered their main commercial and/or artistic impact in the ‘80s--a factor that rules out many contemporary stars who laid a strong case for Hall of Fame membership through their work in the ‘60s or ‘70s. Among the latter: David Bowie, Elton John, Van Morrison, Stevie Wonder, Fleetwood Mac, Al Green, Randy Newman and Tom Waits.

The Candidates:

Bryan Adams--Has a feather of support, but appears too much in the shadow of Springsteen, Mellencamp, Seger, et al. 12%

Bangles--The Go-Go’s probably lost their chance for the Hall of Fame when the band broke up after just three albums. So that leaves the Bangles as the front-runners to fill the slot reserved for the first important female band. But the L.A. quartet still needs to show it deserves that spot. 15%*

Pat Benatar--Not much critical support for her, but she may be remembered as a breakthrough for female rockers. Biggest problem: the fact that Chrissie Hynde is ever so much more compelling. 20%

Boy George--The bottom appears to have fallen out. 5%.

Kate Bush--Needs more exposure in the United States, but a magnificent talent. 40%

Bon Jovi--Massively popular, distressingly insignificant--so far. 18%

Elvis Costello--Though never a big seller, he is perhaps the most respected rock songwriter of the post-punk era. 90%

Duran Duran--The band’s photos may have been on the walls of more girls than any other band of the ‘80s, but a lot of those photos are now in the garbage. 5%

Eurythmics--Classy record-makers and performers, but need to cement their reputation with a couple of anthems that overcome the impression that Lennox and Stewart are more master strategists than passionate artists. 40%

Peter Gabriel--He and Phil Collins will be inducted as members of Genesis, but Gabriel has risen to a whole new level on his own. Collins, too, has a shot at being voted in as a solo artist, but far less chance than Gabriel. (Under Hall of Fame rules, an artist can be elected for his solo work even if he has already been inducted as a member of a group.) 85%

Hall & Oates--They had some highly regarded hits, but the duo’s music doesn’t seem to be wearing well. 25%

Heart--The Wilson sisters’ music isn’t likely to win them a spot, but their influence as women rockers could win them a few votes. 7%

Don Henley--He’ll win a place as a member of the Eagles, but he is already off to a commanding start in qualifying as a solo artist. 85%

Whitney Houston--She’s got too great a voice and too many years left to discount her, but she has exhibited so little artistic vision and deals in too colorless a pop style. The Rock Hall of Fame isn’t limited to rock performers (see the Supremes), but it helps to have some blues, country, gospel or R&B; ties--rather than straight pop. 22%*

Billy Idol--Good performer with traditional rock instincts and a flash of artistic ambition in his last album. More progress, however, is needed. 35%

INXS--Certainly racking up the hits, but suffers from lack of individuality and the feeling that no one is all that passionate about them. 10%*

Janet Jackson--The last album was a smash, but can she do it again? 10%*

Michael Jackson--He’ll be inducted twice, first as a member of the Jackson 5, then as the solo artist who may have achieved more international popularity in rock than anyone since Presley. 99%

The Jesus and Mary Chain--Another long shot, but a touch of greatness. 20*

Billy Joel--Despite his personal identification with rock and his vast backlog of hits, there is a softness at the core of his music that may work against him. Still, he’ll have lots of support. 70%

Huey Lewis & the News--Not enough sizzle. 20%

Los Lobos--The “La Bamba” success finally brought this great band a mainstream following, but the heart of their case rests with their own endearing material. Just need a bit more longevity to make their selection certain. 55%

John Cougar Mellencamp--Has made believers out of a lot of suspicious critics in recent years as he has become a spokesman for honest American rock, but he still needs a couple more strong albums. 65%

George Michael--Initially dismissed as a simply a teen heartthrob, Michael earned some respect (and the cover of Rolling Stone magazine) for his new solo album--which shows signs of artistic life. Big question mark. 25%*

Madonna--She has not only opened a door for women and dance-oriented music, but won the respect of critics and the industry. Only possible threat is turning voters off through too much emphasis on celebrity-hood rather than achievements. 80%

Tom Petty & the Heartbreakers--The songs alone should be enough. 80%

Pretenders--The continuing shifts in personnel may confuse the judges, but one way or another Chrissie Hynde will be inducted. 85%

Prince--A revolutionary talent whose impact has been felt on stage, screen and record. Count on it. 99%

R.E.M.--The most influential American rock band of the ‘80s, but requires more inroads into the rock mainstream to guarantee induction. 61%

Replacements--Like Husker Du, this band enjoys enormous critical respect, but needs to rise out of the underground to improve chances. 35%*

Lionel Richie--A shoo-in for the Pop Hall of Fame, but--like Streisand--may be too far removed from rock for judges to give him a nod. 45%

Run-D.M.C.--These rappers are still young and have made great strides in welding together the rock and rap audiences, but could be hurt if rap burns itself out. 50%

Bob Seger--A classic rocker and respected songwriter. 85%

The Smiths--This English band had a chance, but it probably broke up before it established enough of a presence in this country. 15%

Bruce Springsteen--He’ll be inducted in 1998. 99%

Sting--He’ll be inducted with the Police, but, like Gabriel, he is operating on a whole different plane since going solo. 85%

Talking Heads--Massive critical respect and still paying dividends. 90%

Tiffany--Lots of time, but no evidence of lots of talent. 1%*

Twisted Sister--Does the band still have a record contract? 1%

U2--The paramount band of the ‘80s. If the band stopped today, ironically, it would be a cinch. The band members, however, are still younger than 30 and if they fail to live up to expectations over the next decade, the band could slip in stature. 95%

Van Halen--Defined good-time hard-rock. 60%