California May Gain Six House Seats, Study Shows

Population shifts will continue adding House seats to Sun Belt states such as California and Texas while districts now represented by blacks and Democrats suffer declines, a private study said today.

California could pick up as many as six House seats, with Texas adding four and Florida three, Election Data Services said, while New York could lose three seats and two apiece could be lost by Illinois, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Kimball Brace, president of the political consultant group, said the shifts were based on 1990 population estimates prepared by Temple University. They update estimates released just two weeks ago, which showed slightly less dramatic changes based on 1987 population estimates.

In addition to the shifts among the states, Brace said the current districts with the sharpest declines are generally those represented by blacks and Democrats.

Analysis of ’86 Estimates

His report was based on an analysis of 1986 congressional district population estimates from the Census Bureau.

Of the 50 districts with the largest population losses since the 1980 census, 44 are represented by Democrats, Brace said.

He added that of the 21 congressional districts with populations more than 40% black, 16 had population declines.

On the other hand, he said, of the 37 districts with 20% or more Latino populations, 33 gained population between 1980 and 1986.

Brace’s estimates of shifting seats are based on projections of what the state populations will be in 1990. The national census will be conducted April 1, 1990, with the count to be announced at the end of that year.

In Time for ’92 Elections

House seats will be divided among the states based on the new population figures, with state legislatures then drawing new district lines, probably in time for the 1992 elections.

Stressing that changes in the next few years could revise things markedly, Brace said these are the likely shifts in House seats after the 1990 census:

Gaining seats: California, 6; Texas, 4; Florida, 3; Arizona, 1; Georgia, 1; Virginia, 1.

Losing seats: New York, 3; Illinois, 2; Michigan, 2; Ohio, 2; Pennsylvania, 2; Iowa, 1; Kansas, 1; Massachusetts, 1; West Virginia, 1; Wisconsin, 1.