Bush, Dukakis Victors in N.H. : Vice President Defeats Dole in Crucial Test

Vice President George Bush, bouncing back from his third-place finish in the Iowa caucuses, put his presidential campaign back on track Tuesday with a convincing victory over Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole of Kansas and three other candidates in the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary.

With 100% of the state’s precincts reporting, Bush had polled 38% to the senator’s 29%. New York Rep. Jack Kemp clung to third place with 13%, followed by former Delaware Gov. Pierre S. (Pete) du Pont IV with 10% and former religious broadcaster Pat Robertson, who finished second in Iowa, with 9%.

Could Have Been Crippled

The victory here was considered crucial for the vice president, whose campaign could have been crippled by a second consecutive defeat. A loss here, many analysts agreed, would have eroded his strength in his Southern base and raised questions about whether he could survive Super Tuesday, March 8, when 20 states, including 14 in the South, hold primaries or caucuses.

The outcome, which left Dole bitter and charging that Bush had lied about Dole’s record, virtually guarantees a long, hard-fought battle through the summer for the Republican presidential nomination. It remains a two-man race, with Kemp, Robertson and Du Pont battling among themselves to become the conservative alternative if Bush or Dole were to fade.

Dole, who had defeated Bush 2 to 1 in Iowa, had expressed confidence that he would win the primary even as voters were going to the polls Tuesday. But with exit polls showing Bush a winner, the senator conceded defeat almost an hour before all polls had closed.

But he vowed to “move on to the next state” and declared: “We can’t win them all. But we will be the Republican nominee when it is all over.”

Bush aides attributed his victory partly to his change in campaign style, which saw him go from “staying above the fray” in Iowa to attacking Dole in New Hampshire for his position on taxes and an oil import fee.

Blames Bush Ads

Dole, who did not disagree with that analysis, blamed his loss on Bush television and radio ads that suggested that Dole would raise taxes and favored the oil import fee. “I think that we should have answered those charges,” he said. “I think you can be too kind to your opponent, and we were.”

He said he did not attack Bush because he wanted to keep his campaign “positive,” but he declared: “I’m going to straighten out my record. It’s not going to take long.”

Dole’s strong comments, which were televised in Manchester, brought smiles from several Bush campaign aides, who suggested that the vice president had gotten under the senator’s skin and managed to bring out what they called “the old Dole,” who in years past had been known as a vituperative campaigner.

Still Steaming

Later, several hours after the polls had closed, Dole was still steaming about what he charged were deliberate distortions of his record. “You can stop lying about my record,” Dole declared when NBC anchor Tom Brokaw asked if he had anything to say to the vice president. The senator, who was watching the telecast on a monitor at his headquarters here while Bush was at the NBC studio in Manchester, scowled and stared directly at the vice president as he spoke.

Rich Bond, one of the Bush aides, said the campaign will get rougher from here on out. He said the March 5 primary in South Carolina, where Bush and Dole will be confronting a heavily organized Robertson campaign, will be “all-out war.” Iowa and New Hampshire, Bond said, will be “bean bags” by comparison.

Bond attributed Bush’s victory to his change in campaign style and “delineation of his views with those of Dole.”

Superior Organization

Other analysts said Bush’s superior campaign organization, headed by Gov. John H. Sununu, also was a principal factor.

The New Hampshire primary had been widely considered a last stand for both Kemp and Du Pont, with each needing to make a significant showing to be considered a conservative alternative to the two front-runners.

Even though neither made strong showings, Kemp vowed to remain in the race and declared that his third-place finish meant he had become the conservative alternative to Bush and Dole, both of whom he said represent the “Establishment” or “liberal-conservative” wing of the GOP.

Du Pont, who had banked most of his campaign on Iowa and New Hampshire and had said he needed a strong finish here to remain in the race, still had made no decision on his future plans late Tuesday night.

Robertson to Continue

But Robertson left no doubt that he will continue campaigning despite his disappointing last-place finish. The test for him after his surprising second-place finish in Iowa was whether he could expand on his Christian evangelical base, and he did not. Moreover, exit polls showed that among all the candidates, he drew his strongest support among the most extreme conservatives.

Robertson, who has a highly organized, well-financed campaign, appeared downcast upon learning of his last-place finish, but he vowed to carry his fight to the Republican convention.

“We played in Iowa in Bob Dole’s back yard and I beat George Bush there,” Robertson told his supporters Tuesday night. “We played in New Hampshire, which George Bush said is his back yard, and he won there. Ladies and gentlemen, tomorrow morning we go into the South and they’re going to be playing in my back yard.”

Exit polls by The Times showed that Bush drew heavy support from Republicans who believe “the country is headed in the right direction.” Bush has tied his campaign closely to President Reagan’s policies and the President remains popular in New Hampshire.

Dole had counted heavily on winning a majority of independent voters, but polls showed that they voted in nearly equal numbers for him and Bush.

Greet Early Voters

With so much at stake, the Republican candidates were out campaigning shortly after the polls opened at 6 a.m., greeting voters as they arrived to cast ballots.

After Bush’s stinging defeat in the Iowa caucuses, his well-staffed campaign in New Hampshire, leaving nothing to chance, blanketed the state with circulars and made telephone calls to prospective voters during the past week. They launched a sizable get-out-the-vote drive Tuesday.

Ron Kaufman, New England coordinator of the Bush campaign, said that after the campaign’s efforts, there was “not a household in this state we will not have touched.”

Rep. Robert K. Dornan (R-Garden Grove), who arrived in Manchester on Tuesday after a six-state campaign swing through the South in Bush’s behalf, said a victory here was crucial to the vice president’s chances of maintaining Southern support and winning the nomination.

Cites Bush Organization

“Bush has got tremendous support and organization in the South,” Dornan said, “and the other Republican candidates have very little organization.” But a loss here, Dornan said, would have been “a rejection of the vice president” that could have crippled his candidacy in the South.

Bush, who had watched a 20-point lead in New Hampshire evaporate after Iowa, changed his campaign style and approach and followed a hectic schedule during the past week as he struggled desperately to turn things around.

In Iowa, he campaigned as a vice president, traveling in a limousine, surrounded by Secret Service agents, making speeches under tightly controlled conditions, aloof from the average voter and generally inaccessible to the press. After a harsh attack on Dole by one of his campaign officials in Iowa, Bush also tried to “stay above the fray,” as he put it, and generally refrained from attacking Dole.

Attacks Dole Record

But in New Hampshire, Bush campaigned as a candidate, donned a ski parka, met with voters in the countryside, drove a forklift truck and held press conferences. And he began attacking Dole’s record as Senate Republican leader and declared that the senator’s proposed spending freeze was a “cop-out.”

And he and his television ads portrayed Dole as a candidate who advocated an oil import fee and might succumb to pressures for a tax increase to lower the budget deficit.

Bush also campaigned with former Boston Red Sox star Ted Williams and brought in former Sen. Barry Goldwater (R-Ariz.), the 1964 Republican presidential nominee, for a last-minute endorsement and joint appearance in a television ad on the eve of the primary.

And, showing a new sense of humility, Bush invoked the words of Abraham Lincoln as he pleaded for voters to support his comeback effort. “Here I stand, warts and all,” he said, explaining that he was not very articulate but declaring he felt deeply about issues.

By Tuesday, Bush appeared to be confident that his new approach had paid off. “I think we (took) a hit coming out of Iowa,” he said, “that’s been turned around now.”

Dole also was optimistic before the polls closed, declaring: “It feels good, like it did in Iowa last Monday.”

THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VOTE Republicans

298 of 298 precincts reporting.

23 convention delegates at stake.

Vote Pct. Delegates Bush 58,656 38 11 Dole 44,361 29 7 Kemp 19,757 13 3 Du Pont 15,608 10 2 Robertson 14,557 9 0 Haig* 545 0 0

* (withdrew) Democrats 294 of 298 precincts reporting.

18 convention delegates at stake (excluding 4 officially non committed delegates).

Vote Pct. Delegates Dukakis 43,350 36 6 Gephardt 24,139 20 6 Simon 20,697 17 3 Jackson 9,580 8 0 Gore 8,219 7 0 Babbitt 5,559 5 0 Hart 4,797 4 0