Politics 88 : Campaigns Offer Varied Cash Outlook : Dole Near Spending Cap; Gephardt Trails Simon in Fund Raising

For Sen. Bob Dole (R-Kan.), the latest presidential campaign financial reports provide mixed news: Dole raised substantially more money last month than Vice President George Bush, but his campaign has been spending so fast that he is in danger of hitting his legal spending limit long before the fight for the Republican presidential nomination is over.

On the Democratic side, meanwhile, Sen. Paul Simon of Illinois appears to be raising about 50% more money than Rep. Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri, despite Gephardt’s defeat of Simon in two successive contests. Gephardt plans intensive fund-raising efforts over the next two weeks to gain the $2 million he needs to contest the March 8 Super Tuesday primaries, his campaign spokesman said.

Others Have Money

Two other Democrats, Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis and Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr., appear to have all the money they need to meet their budgets for Super Tuesday, judging by their campaigns’ January spending and fund-raising reports, which were filed at the Federal Election Commission over the weekend.

Dukakis raised $804,000 in January and ended the month with $4 million in cash. Gore raised only $180,746 in January but reported $2 million in the bank. So far in February, his campaign has raised “well over $1 million,” including more than $700,000 at a Texas fund-raiser two weeks ago, according to spokesman Paul Risley.

Under federal law, no current candidate can spend more than $27.6 million in the quest for a presidential nomination. By the end of January, Dole already had spent well over half that amount--close to $16 million, including $4.5 million in January alone. The pattern of his spending indicates that by the time the Super Tuesday balloting is complete, Dole’s total spending will be within a few million of the overall limit.

Bush also has spent far more during the early days of the campaign than his advisers originally had anticipated. So far, he has spent close to $15 million. But for two reasons, the danger of hitting the ceiling appears to be more acute for Dole.

First, Bush has been spending money more slowly than Dole. In January, for example, his campaign spent about $3.4 million. Second, Bush has the lead so far in virtually all the Super Tuesday states. Dole will have to spend heavily to catch him.

“Dole has got to pull out all the stops for Super Tuesday,” said Times political consultant William Schneider. If he holds back worrying about the latter part of the race, he could be left with “money and a dead candidacy,” Schneider said.

Dole raised about $1.2 million in January. Bush raised $768,000. Overall, however, Bush continues to lead all other candidates in fund raising, having brought in $26 million, including federal matching funds. Dole has raised about $21 million, including matching funds.

On the Democratic side, Simon raised $534,259 in January and spokesman David Carle said that so far in February the campaign has brought in an additional $559,000.

Gephardt Receipts Increase

Gephardt, by contrast, raised only $212,702 in January. His victory in the Iowa caucuses Feb. 8 and second-place showing in New Hampshire a week later have increased receipts to about $400,000 so far this month, according to campaign press secretary Mark Johnson.

The disparity between the two is “a startling statistic,” said Duane B. Garrett, a longtime leading Democratic fund-raiser who was Bruce Babbitt’s national campaign chairman this year.

If Simon can “figure out some way to still be alive the day after Super Tuesday,” his ability to tap traditional liberal Democratic donors could keep his campaign going, Garrett said. Simon is hoping that a victory this week in Minnesota’s caucuses will revive his campaign and that he could then do well later in the season in Illinois, his home state, and in other Northern industrial states.

Gephardt, meanwhile, appears to be doing well in Southern polls, beating Gore, for example, in a poll of Texas voters published Sunday in the Houston Chronicle and Dallas Morning News. But he is short of funds to take advantage of that support.

Fund-Raising Events

Aides insist that Gephardt’s campaign will have the funds it needs for the March 8 contests. “We have a $2-million budget for Super Tuesday, a lot of that money is yet to be raised,” said Johnson, noting that Gephardt has 25 fund-raising events scheduled around the country for the next two weeks.

Gephardt’s financial picture would be worse were it not for more than $800,000 in bills that he had not yet paid as of the end of the month. Gephardt owed his direct mail firm, Progressive Direct Marketing, about $273,000, his media adviser $55,000 and a political consulting firm roughly $110,000, according to his financial report.

The only candidate showing a larger debt than Gephardt was Rep. Jack Kemp (R-N.Y.), who owed roughly $525,000 to creditors and had taken out $750,000 in loans. Much of Kemp’s debt has gone to fuel his huge, and expensive, direct mail fund-raising campaign. During January, Kemp raised about $1 million and spent nearly $3 million.

The Rev. Jesse Jackson and former religious broadcaster Pat Robertson had not yet filed their financial reports Sunday.