Despite a Plausible Scenario, Robertson Is Not a Threat

They no longer laugh when Republican presidential aspirant Pat Robertson sits down to play the piano. Indeed, political pros and media pundits have swung from not taking him seriously enough to seeing him as a born-again threat to the Republic.

The concern is probably excessive. His chances of winning the GOP nomination, much less the election, are virtually nil.

It is possible that the Robertson forces will go to the convention with enough delegates to dictate the Republican platform and to impose demands on whoever does get the nomination--resulting in a split party and a lost election in November. But even that outcome presupposes a level of support for Robertson that may not exist.

Robertson does have impressive assets.

To begin with, he hardly fits the stereotype of the backwoods, born-again evangelist. He is the son of a U.S. senator, and is a graduate of Yale Law School and a New York theological seminary.

He has name recognition. There are said to be 35 million fundamentalists in the country, and his Christian Broadcasting Network reached most of them.

From this pool has emerged the formidable campaign organization composed of zealous, committed followers who are especially effective in caucuses and primaries where voter turnout is typically light.

The former television evangelist, in addition, has a message that reaches beyond his constituency among born-again Christians.

When Robertson talks about “moral decay” in the country, the anti-family tilt of the tax laws and the need for “moral content in education,” he is voicing the deep anxieties of many ordinary Americans who see their world threatened by drugs, teen-age pregnancies, pornography and the general erosion of traditional values.

Reflecting the appeal of his anti-abortion stand, he carried Dubuque, Iowa’s most heavily Catholic urban area.

Robertson has parlayed his assets into victory in Hawaii and an impressive showing in Iowa, where he came in second ahead of Vice President George Bush. He bombed out in New Hampshire, but scored second in Maine, Minnesota and South Dakota. He predicts that he will lead the pack after March 8, the Super Tuesday on which 20 mostly Southern states will vote.

In the South, the Virginian says, “They will be playing in my ball park.” On the surface it’s true. One survey indicates that nearly 40% of Southern Republicans consider themselves born-again Christians.

So it’s easy to concoct a scenario in which the religious right, led by Robertson, gains a dominating position within the Republican Party even if he falls short of nomination.

That prospect alarms the economic conservatives who make up the traditional wing of the party. They fear a possible split that could turn the White House over to the Democrats for years to come.

But will it really happen?.

Fundamentalist Christians are not monolithic. Their fractionation into a multitude of denominations and sects reflects an independence of mind. It is insulting to assume that born-again Christians, given a reasonable alternative, will troop to the polls and vote en masse for Robertson.

In fact, one Gallup poll found that Robertson was the first choice of only 10% of the evangelical Christians. Another poll shows that, among Republicans who plan to vote on March 8, Robertson comes in a poor third--with 9% of the projected vote.

The greater dedication of Robertson supporters could tip the scales--but may not. The more the voters learn about Robertson, the less likely they will be to vote for him.

The church-and-state issue is one factor, but only one. Robertson testily declares that “I am not running for chief pastor, I’m running for chief executive officer” of the U.S. government.

If elected, he doesn’t foresee a conflict between his religious views and his presidential responsibilities. But if one arose, he insists that he would resign.

Be that as it may, he is an ordained minister who claims to have talked with both God and the Devil, and who plainly sees himself as God’s chosen instrument to lead “God’s chosen nation.”

Most Americans, Christian and otherwise, are uncomfortable with such talk from an aspiring President.

The religious issue aside, Robertson’s bizarre views on a range of subjects will turn off voters as they become better known. Among other things, he has called for the abolition of Halloween, charged that credit cards are the mark of the beast in biblical terms and suggested that Planned Parenthood wanted to create a master race.

Robertson sees no possibility of accommodation with the Soviets, and pledges to “roll ‘em back on their heels” if elected. In the next breath he calls for a $30-billion cut in defense spending .

To solve the federal deficit, he talks glibly of cutting $100 million from the budget. To deal with the problems of poverty and privilege, he has cited a biblical precedent for the total redistribution of wealth every 50 years.

All of which sounds a bit flaky. And there is no reason to think that Americans want a flake running the country.