Stakes High for GOP in South Carolina

Not much is certain about the 1988 presidental election. But there is the certainty of this: History will look back on today in South Carolina and record that this is where Republicans upped the ante.

The election calendar, geography and the strategies of the four remaining GOP national contenders all collided head-on here.

Nobody ducked; nobody could retreat. Nobody seemed ready to hear excuses. Nobody, it seems, could afford any of this in an election that occurs just a few days before the giant, Southern-dominated Super Tuesday round of 17 GOP primaries and caucuses.

“It’s Derby Day!” said Barbara Pardue, campaign press secretary for Vice President George Bush.

New Set of Odds

Out of this portal to Tuesday’s Big One will surely come a new and perhaps permanently rearranged set of odds in the Republican race.

“If I’m successful in South Carolina, I think you’ll be able to say the next President of the United States was here in your school,” Bush confidently told 850 students here Friday as he stormed across the state from rally to rally.

Opinion polls of Republican voters in South Carolina--there is no Democratic contest until March 12--continued to show Bush a strong favorite.

But Sen. Bob Dole of Kansas has come to challenge the front-runner with hard-hitting local appeals on behalf of trade protection for textile workers. For Pat Robertson, where else but here in the middle of the Bible Belt could he expect to prove the strength and seriousness of his campaign of moral righteousness? And Rep. Jack Kemp of New York is desperately wondering if he can reach hard-line conservatives before it is too late--too late for him.

“You’re seeing the last true multi-candidate contest of the 1988 sweepstakes,” predicted Lee Atwater, the South Carolina native who is national campaign manager for Bush.

Wyoming Holds Caucuses

In the shadow of this Republican primary, voters of both parties hold preference caucuses today in Wyoming. But interest in them has no way approached the intensity of the campaign here in South Carolina.

As the heavy favorite, particularly since his victory in New Hampshire Feb. 16, Bush campaigned for South Carolina in a position that was both commanding and precarious: commanding, because a solid victory would sap opponents and probably cement Bush’s claim as the Southern candidate of choice for Tuesday’s voting in 17 other states; but precarious because all his challengers await just the slightest sign of weakness to exploit.

“Bush is laying it all on the line--the 20-year career of a political professional is at stake here,” said Don Hayes, a Columbia, S.C., media consultant working for Robertson.

As if granting the point, Bush pulled out of contests in South Dakota and Minnesota two weeks ago, conceding them to Dole, in order to concentrate on South Carolina and the South.

“If we lose here, it’s bad news for the Bears,” acknowledged Atwater.

Connected to Reagan

One of Bush’s biggest assets in the campaign is a commodity that has hurt him in other states, notably Iowa. This is his association with the Reagan Administration.

Reagan remains popular in the South. And Bush has played this hard. Part of his television advertising campaign shows a ringing telephone and reminds viewers that when Reagan needed to call on someone, “he called on George Bush” to be vice president.

The other part of Bush’s television advertising strategy is to keep pressure on Dole, suggesting that the senator is soft on taxes.

And Dole, for the first time, is striking back in kind, making the same charge against Bush.

The titles of their two “negative” commercials tell just how much alike they are in conception and aim. Bush calls his attack on Dole the “straddle” ad; Dole’s return parry against Bush is labeled “waffle.”

Muddiest Campaign

The result is that South Carolina has become the muddiest and most personal GOP campaign of the election season so far as these two political veterans deride the pragmatic sides of each other’s long records.

Dole originally seemed of a mind to sidestep South Carolina, figuring it was an impenetrable Bush stronghold.

But two late-breaking factors seemed to change his mind. One of them was the surprise endorsement of Sen. Strom Thurmond, the conservative patriarch of South Carolina. The other was the hope that a serious campaign effort, in conjunction with the all-out anti-Bush campaign of Robertson, might derail the front-runner here and open up the race.

Dole has hit hardest on bread-and-butter jobs issues of local concern here, with a heavy emphasis on textiles. By one count, 126 textile plants have closed over the years in South Carolina as imports claimed a bigger share of U.S. fabric markets.

The Kansas senator has come out strongly in support of pending federal legislation to restrict the growth in market share of imported textiles. Bush remains aligned with the Reagan Administration and opposes the legislation as protectionist.

In the Robertson camp, there appeared at week’s end to be considerable apprehension.

Displays Bravado

After his disappointing fifth-place finish in New Hampshire, the former religious broadcaster flew here and let loose with more bravado than anyone expected.

“I want to throw down the gauntlet for the big state, the one that’s really important,” he said. “There isn’t question about it. If I lose this one, I’m in trouble.”

As recently as Monday, Robertson press spokesman Kerry Moody was saying confidently that Robertson did not have to worry about reaching old-line voters because Robertson’s evangelical base amounted to 40% of the South Carolina electorate.

But after two days of traversing the state by bus caravan, attracting generally small, unenthusiastic crowds, and reading a steady diet of gloomy polls, Robertson campaign strategists were trying to rearrange the stakes on Friday.

Marc Nuttle, national campaign director, said Robertson could claim some success if he wins as few as six to nine of South Carolina’s 37 national conventional delegates (1,139 are required for nomination).

Robertson paid $75,000 for a half-hour of statewide television time Thursday night to try to reach voters with a personal appeal. Speaking from behind a desk, he defended himself against controversies that have engulfed him recently, saying he was the victim of an “anti-Christian, anti-Southern” news media bias and “incredible cases of unfair reporting, misquotation and distortion of the facts.”

Americans ‘Waking Up’

In a less defensive tone, Robertson said that a “moral alarm clock” was sounding in the South, and that “by the thousands, Americans are waking up to the need for strong moral leadership.”

Perhaps nobody has as much on the line in today’s election as Kemp, who has been an insiginificant factor in the campaign so far.

For him, it may very well be do or die. The congressman has vowed to press on no matter what here--and polls show him struggling in last place. But Kemp is desperately short of campaign funds.

“We need to be somebody after this, that’s for sure. We need to finish second or third,” said Scott Reed, a top Kemp operative.

Among other things, his commercials feature a pledge that he would not relinquish the Panama Canal until the government of Panama is reformed. And Kemp is directly taking on Robertson for the first time in competition for “moral leadership” of conservatives.

“Jack Kemp can relate to the average guy here, the football player, Joe Sixpack--not only by what he says but by who he is,” said Reed.

Times staff writers Cathleen Decker and Bob Secter contributed to this article.