Simon Leading; Bush Sweeps On : Vice President Moves Closer to Nomination

Vice President George Bush appeared to move closer to clinching the Republican presidential nomination Tuesday, piling up a huge early lead over Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole in the Illinois primary.

Bush scored heavily in all areas of the state, according to exit polls, and was helped considerably by his close ties to President Reagan, who has an 80 % favorable rating among Illinois Republicans.

With 15% of the ballots counted in the non-binding statewide “beauty contest,” Bush had 59,506 votes or 59% of the GOP total; Dole had 33,830 or 34%, and Pat Robertson had 4,716 or 5%. A small number of other votes were divided among three candidates who have already withdrawn from the campaign, former New York Rep. Jack Kemp, former Delaware Gov. Pierre S. (Pete) du Pont IV, and former Secretary of State Alexander M. Haig Jr.

16-State Sweep

The vice president’s apparent victory, on the heels of his 16-state sweep in last week’s Super Tuesday primaries, should give him an almost insurmountable lead in the crucial delegate count.

Bush went into the Illinois primary with 705 of the 1,139 delegates needed for the nomination, and exit polls and early returns indicated he would receive a substantial majority of the 92 delegates at stake here.

The Bush margin was so decisive that CBS-TV projected a victory as soon as the polls closed at 7 p.m.

Earlier Tuesday, Bush declared that regardless of the outcome, he would not “let up one iota” in his drive to wrap up the nomination early.

Leaving nothing to chance, Bush later to Milwaukee for about four hours of campaigning, then returned to Chicago for a victory celebration.

The vice president, asked whether he thought Dole would now drop out of the race, said: “Not according to what he said. There can’t be enough delegates (in Illinois) to physically wrap it up. A lot depends on how well I do with the delegates.”

William E. Brock III, Dole’s campaign manager, said he gives Bush “credit for carrying Illinois, but I don’t think it’s anything like the margin he hoped for.”

The outcome in Illinois not only dashed Dole’s hopes for a comeback but put pressure on him to reconsider his candidacy in the name of party unity. Dole, who has been harshly critical of Bush and has repeatedly labeled him a loser to the Democrats in the fall, went into the Illinois primary with only 165 delegates.

Nevertheless, Dole campaigned in both Wisconsin and Connecticut on Tuesday and said he has no intention of withdrawing.

Dole, who earlier had said Super Tuesday was “a referendum on Ronald Reagan and Reagan won,” declared in Wisconsin: “This is a race you can’t inherit or shouldn’t inherit. You have to earn it the old-fashioned way.”

At another point, however, Dole, indicating some ambivalence about his plans, said he would discuss his situation with his wife, Elizabeth, and “make a judgment.” But he said: “It’s too early.”

Since his devastating Super Tuesday defeat, Dole has been back and forth about whether he would consider withdrawing. But several times he has held out hope that Bush’s campaign would come apart if voters would just “stop and think” and realize Bush would be a weak candidate against the Democrats in the fall.

Dole ‘Not Getting Out’

Addressing state legislators Tuesday in Madison, Wis., Dole declared: “I want you to know Bob Dole is alive and well and running for President. I’m not getting out.”

However, his Illinois defeat dims his chances in Wisconsin’s April 5 primary. And he apparently has little chance of scoring well in the March 29 primary in Connecticut, where Bush grew up and his father was a U.S. senator.

Former religious broadcaster Pat Robertson, the third candidate in the race, finished way back in the voting, and drew extremely high negative marks from the voters, according to Los Angeles Times exit polls.

But Robertson, who is short on campaign funds, said he will continue in the race, although at a much-reduced level.

“I have enough money to keep in the race through California and the convention,” he said. “But I don’t have enough to do telemarketing and television. . . . My own personal travel will continue, but as far as a full-blown media campaign, I can’t afford that any more.”

Bush’s decisive victory over Dole may have given the vice president a near-lock on the Republican nomination, but it also left him with a major problem of trying to unify the party for the fall campaign against the Democrats.

The vice president, not unaware of the problem he might face in bringing Dole and some of his supporters back into the fold, has refrained from criticizing the senator since the Super Tuesday blow-out and has said he intends to conduct himself in a manner that would “bring together all the Republicans.”

In fact, after his victory over Dole in the New Hampshire primary a month ago, Bush began moderating any criticism of the senator. But Dole, seething over what he considered an unfair attack by Bush in New Hampshire suggesting Dole might raise taxes as President, has grown more strident in his criticism of the vice president.

Dole, who insists that as minority leader he has done more to promote Reagan’s policies, has been especially bitter about the vice president’s success in identifying himself with the President.

Referring to a television commercial that shows Bush and Reagan together and the President putting an arm over Bush’s shoulder, Dole declared:

“I don’t have nearly as many pictures of Ronald Reagan as George Bush has. He must have a pile 6 feet deep. I can’t match him in photos. But I can match him in record.”

Bush’s problem of trying to unify the party was underscored by Dole’s vow to continue campaigning to the bitter end, and by exit polls that showed some anti-Bush sentiment among Dole supporters. The polls also suggested other potential Bush weaknesses that were not apparent in the vice president’s sweep in the Super Tuesday contests last week.

A Times poll of voters leaving the polls in Illinois on Tuesday showed that Dole voters generally had a negative impression of Bush, while Bush voters had a favorable impression of Dole.

A Potential Problem

The poll also pointed up another potential problem for Bush: Independent voters, who supported Bush on Super Tuesday, generally favored Dole in Illinois. To win in November, the Republican nominee will not only have to unify his minority party but win enough support among independents and Democrats to form a majority.

Moreover, people who said their vote was based on the candidate’s “leadership” or “strong convictions” or “ability to get things done” were more inclined to support Dole.

As in Bush’s other primary victories, his close ties to Reagan and his broad experience in government were major assets. A majority of Bush voters cited his experience as the principal reason for their vote and he was the clear favorite among the overwhelming majority of Republican voters--80% in Illinois--who approve of Reagan’s job performance.

Dole was a clear favorite of voters who disapprove of Reagan’s job performance but as the senator himself has noted, there are not many Republicans in that category.

In Illinois, the Iran-Contra affair didn’t do well as an issue for Dole, even though he hit it hard and media attention focused on it last week after Robert C. McFarlane, the former national security adviser, pleaded guilty to misleading Congress and agreed to cooperate with the independent counsel’s investigation of the affair.

Only a small percentage of voters surveyed in Times’ exit polls cited the Iran-Contra affair as an issue, although among those who did, Dole drew the most support.

Robertson was viewed highly unfavorably by a substantial majority of the voters, with supporters of both Bush and Dole giving him negative marks.