Dukakis Easily Wins Wisconsin : Trounces Jackson; Gore Finishes Third in Primary and Simon Trails

Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis got his Democratic presidential candidacy back on track in Tuesday’s Wisconsin primary by trouncing his chief adversary, the Rev. Jesse Jackson.

Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr., who has not won a primary since his successes on Super Tuesday last month, finished third. Illinois Sen. Paul Simon brought up the rear once again, raising questions about whether he can continue in the race.

Vice President George Bush, whose only opponent was former religious broadcaster Pat Robertson, won easily on the Republican side. With 85% of the GOP ballots counted, Bush was carrying 84% of the vote.

On the Democratic side, with 84% of the vote counted, the results were Dukakis 47%, Jackson 29%, Gore 17% and Simon 5%.

“A great victory for us,” Dukakis said from New York, where he will campaign today for the primary there on April 19. “I hope it’s a sign of things to come.” The Massachusetts governor also celebrated a narrow victory in Monday’s Colorado caucuses, which were marked by a slow and controversial vote count.

‘Positive Campaign’

Jackson, campaigning in Arizona, said: “We ran a very measured and positive campaign, and Mike Dukakis ran a measured and very effective campaign.

“Our task is to offer an alternative to seven years of Reaganomics. So I’m pleased with the tenor of our campaign.”

Asked if his second place finishes in Wisconsin and Colorado would damage his claims to momentum, Jackson said: “I have gotten more delegates since Super Tuesday than Dukakis. I’ve gotten more of the popular vote since Super Tuesday. After 40 contests, if you come in first or second in 30, and you’ve got a quarter million-plus vote lead, you’ve got to feel good about that.”

At a reception in New York City, Gore pronounced himself “extremely pleased” with his showing in Wisconsin, the first time he has moved into double digits in a major primary since Super Tuesday.

“We had to have a result that would show people that we were generating strength and demonstrating momentum,” Gore said. “And we did that in Wisconsin.”

Simon’s campaign manager, Brian Lunde, said the senator was returning to Washington and would make a statement Thursday. He predicted Simon would remain a candidate but “more to the inactive.”

Pre-election polling and the assessments by rival campaigns had indicated that Dukakis and Jackson were battling to an extremely close finish. But the anticipated tightness of the race depended on Jackson getting better than 30% of the white vote, as some polls had indicated he would.

Takes 25% of White Vote

Instead, exit polls indicated that Jackson took only about 25% of the white vote, slightly higher than the figure he took in the Connecticut primary last week. But in this state, where blacks make up only a tiny percentage of the population, that figure was not nearly enough.

Meanwhile, Dukakis, according to CBS exit polls, was solving what has been one of his own most vexing problems by carrying large numbers of lower middle-class and working-class voters.

The CBS survey found 76% of the voters interviewed had a favorable view of him, while only about one in five viewed him negatively.

The CBS exit poll showed that Dukakis won three out of every four voters who wanted a candidate who could win the White House in November.

By contrast, an NBC survey of some 2,400 voters indicated that fewer than half of Jackson’s supporters think he would be the strongest Democrat standard bearer in November.

The NBC polling indicated that most voters regarded Dukakis as the leader of the pack despite the strong performance in recent primaries by Jackson, who has been leading in the national popular vote and running close behind Dukakis in the count of national convention delegates.

Believe Dukakis Strongest

About two-thirds of those interviewed, including about 40% of Jackson’s supporters, said they believe Dukakis will be the ultimate Democratic nominee and more than 6 in 10 think he would be the strongest Democrat to run against Bush in November.

On the other other hand, about 40% of Dukakis’ own supporters wish someone else was running, and only half think he cares about people like them.

And only about half of the Jackson supporters interviewed by NBC think the country is ready to elect a black President.

The Wisconsin primary took on added importance both because of what preceded it and what was to follow. The most significant event immediately leading up to the campaign here was the March 26 caucuses in Michigan, in which Jackson stunned the political world by defeating Dukakis 2 to 1 in the popular vote and also winning a majority of the 138 delegates at stake.

The Michigan results, coming on the heels of Dukakis’ third-place finish in the March 15 Illinois primary, seriously undermined claims of his supporters that his nomination was inevitable and raised pointed questions about his ability to get support from blue-collar voters.

For Jackson, Michigan, of course, had the opposite effect. It greatly enhanced respect for the overall strength of his campaign. And specifically the results indicated that he had improved his ability to attract white voters. Although there were no exit polls to measure Jackson’s appeal for whites precisely, estimates based on his showing in some white communities ranged as high as 30%.

Curtain-Raiser for N.Y.

Just as Wisconsin turned into a testing ground for the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates revealed by Michigan, it also served as a curtain-raiser for the primary in New York--the biggest state contest so far--in which 255 delegates will be at stake, better than 10% of the 2,082 needed for a nominating majority.

For not only Dukakis and Jackson, but also Gore and Simon, Wisconsin became a place to demonstrate their ability to compete effectively among the fractious groups that make up the Empire State’s Democratic electorate.

These overall strategic considerations, along with the specific circumstances in Wisconsin, shaped the tactics used by the competing candidates in this state.

Back on Track

For Dukakis, his first priority in Wisconsin was to get his campaign back on track after his Michigan defeat.

He got off to a slow start. Many labor leaders attending a state party fund-raising dinner here on the same night as the Michigan vote rated Dukakis last among the four Democratic candidates who spoke, according to Jack Reihl, president of the state AFL-CIO.

But then Dukakis helped his cause here by winning the Connecticut primary March 29 with 58% of the vote. Even though his first-place finish in the state bordering on his own Massachusetts was expected, the size of the victory margin eased some of the sting of Michigan. And according to Dukakis aides in this state, it slowed the gains Jackson was making here.

Alters His Tone

Immediately after Michigan, Dukakis said he would not change his candidacy because of his defeats there and in Illinois. But if he did not make substantive changes, he did alter his tone, apparently responding to criticism that his message lacked force and vitality.

For Jackson, Wisconsin offered a chance to demonstrate that his apparent success among white voters in Michigan was no fluke. Actually, he had little choice, because blacks make up only about 4% of the voting-age population here.

“We had no base that we could count on like we had in the South and Illinois,” said Steve Cobble, chief of Jackson’s delegate-hunting operations. “So we had to play the game like everyone else.”

For Gore, the expectations from his Wisconsin performance were more modest than for his front-running rivals. But he had invested a substantial sum in television ads and he was under some pressure to show that he could win at least some delegates in a state outside his native South.

Simon in some ways had the hardest task of all here because of his low standing in the race and because his hopes of taking advantage of the state’s liberal tradition were hurt by Jackson’s surge after Michigan.

Nevertheless, in his campaigning here, Simon sought to remind Wisconsin liberals of his philosophical kinship with them, at the same time differentiating himself from Jackson by pointing to his experience in international affairs gained through his role on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

THE WISCONSIN VOTE

Republicans 2,941 of 3,451 precincts reporting--85%.

47 convention delegates at stake.

Vote Pct. Delegates Bush 254,456 84 47 Robertson 21,560 7 0 Others 25,637 9 0

Democrats 2,883 of 3,451 precincts reporting--84%.

81 convention delegates at stake.

Vote Pct. Delegates Dukakis 409,572 47 44 Jackson 247,610 29 25 Gore 148,850 17 12 Simon 41,508 5 0 Others 18,433 2 00