‘It’s the Veep Disease’ : Vice Presidency: Bush’s Advantage or Liability?

From appearances alone, the odds could hardly be better for George Bush.

He sweeps through the Republican primaries, propelled steadily toward a convention coronation. One by one, most of his opponents have drawn into his fold, pledging their support. As Democratic candidates muddle through divisive battles, the vice president’s team can watch confidently from the sidelines.

But still lurking, according to both Democratic and Republican analysts, are fundamental problems for Bush’s general election candidacy, troubles that have been obscured only temporarily by his stunning performance in the early contests.

At the confluence of the concerns is the vice presidency itself, Bush’s biggest attribute or, depending on the nation’s mood in November, potentially his biggest liability. Although the post has given Bush an enormous stature advantage over the years, it has also emphasized qualities that can prove damaging to candidates in general and Bush in specific, analysts say.

“It’s the veep disease,” said Mitchell Daniels, former White House political director under President Reagan and now president of the Indianapolis-based Hudson Institute.

Facing Bush now is the toughest sell of his campaign: persuading a broad spectrum of American voters that he stands for something beyond assent to Reagan’s dictums.

“He’s still got a difficult assignment: to turn himself inside out and be the leader he hasn’t been,” said Democratic consultant Greg Schneiders.

Even his critics, however, are loath to underestimate Bush. He startled many with the discipline and shrewd tactics honed as the campaign progressed. As he drew closer to the nomination, his public performances improved markedly. His experience and what friends call the “decency factor” apparently played well to voters.

Bush’s general blandness, the very trait that some say threatens him, is lauded by other observers as a potential benefit.

“He’s safe, he’s moderate, he’s like an old shoe,” Schneiders said. “I don’t think anyone thinks he’s a very exciting candidate or would be as President, but they also don’t think he’s going to blow the world up.”

Fleshing Out His Views

Aides say that Bush will begin shortly to flesh out his views to appeal beyond his relatively narrow GOP primary audience. But thus far, driven by an overriding need to keep all segments of the Republican Party happy, Bush has shown little potential for daring moves that could engender wider enthusiasm.

“One of the things people want in a President is a degree of safeness and stability and calmness,” said Robert Teeter, a Bush pollster and strategist.

But the flip side of “safeness” can be a discomfiting refusal to take a stand.

Bush, for example, has called for a high standard of ethics in government, saying he was “tired of being embarrassed” by conflicts of interest and other ethical problems. But he has refused to air publicly his views on the controversy swirling around Atty. Gen. Edwin Meese III, except to say that the defection of top Meese aides “troubles” him.

Supports Reagan Veto

Bush likewise has publicly supported the President in his veto last month of a major civil rights bill, despite his private disagreement with the President’s actions and a record of moderation in civil rights matters.

And beyond his steady support of Reagan, Bush has spent seven years as vice president without seeming to champion directly any substantive policies. On the campaign trail, for example, he continually advises voters that he wants “to be the education President.”

But when recently asked in Greenville, S. C., which specific education policies he had backed in the Administration, he replied: “General support for the whole concept of educational excellence.

“I’ve been the executive vice president,” he said, “but I can’t say I identify with any specific educational goal.”

The unknown nature of his views is cited by many as a potential trouble spot when voters look at the party nominees.

“It isn’t that he stands for the wrong things,” said David Keene, a former top strategist for Bush’s challenger, Kansas Sen. Bob Dole. “It’s that they (voters) don’t know what he stands for.

“The lurking question in their minds is: ‘Who is this guy?’ ”

Visibility vs. Limitations

Part of the problem is most certainly the role of vice president. Fred Greenstein, a Princeton University professor who studies presidential politics, says the job poses “a paradox between the major visibility it puts on you and the limitations.”

Vice presidents, several analysts noted, are forced to be subservient lest they offend the President and the voters. In recent history, Greenstein and other analysts point out, vice presidential experience did not help Hubert H. Humphrey or Walter F. Mondale assume the presidency. Nor did it persuade voters in 1960 to side with Richard M. Nixon.

Lacks Reagan Connections

Bush, moreover, is perceived to appeal with less intensity to a more limited constituency than Reagan, lacking the strong connection with a wide range of Americans on which Reagan rode to the White House.

Most analysts believe that Bush will be able to unify Republicans, partly because they have no alternative and partly because he has enough lead time before the nomination to ease any strains.

The biggest unity problem facing Bush, many say, will be maintaining Reagan’s hold on blue-collar voters, independents and Democrats.

“The Reagan strength was to be able to reach in to blue-collar (voters) and craft a message,” said former Dole aide Keene. “Bush doesn’t have such a message, and he comes from a different class. He has to make an overt and active effort to get out with those people.”

Shucks Formalities

Bush did that, with some success, after his Iowa caucus defeat when he shucked his formal campaign and took to traveling around in 18-wheel rigs and glad-handing with construction workers at a variety of sites. The danger is that such antics can, if played out wrong, serve only to emphasize Bush’s patrician background.

“Bush is most comfortable in country clubs and cotillions and with his own kind of people,” said Democratic consultant Schneiders. “He’s got to try to expand beyond that cultural base.”

Bush aides, however, offer the vice president’s 1980 presidential primary victories in Michigan and Pennsylvania as evidence that he can attract blue-collar votes.

While Republicans and Democrats alike agree that Bush has to broaden his appeal and develop a more specific agenda as the general election approaches, there is much less unity of thought about the threat posed by lingering Reagan Administration controversies.

The debate over the future of Meese and the continuing discussion of the Iran-Contra scandal can divert attention away from what Bush seeks to emphasize, but few believe now that they have the potential to wreck his candidacy unless new evidence emerges.

In contrast, Reagan’s continuing popularity bodes well for Bush, because Reagan supporters have formed the backbone of the vice president’s voters.

“Anything that raises Ronald Reagan’s stature is going to help George Bush,” said William Schneider, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington and a consultant to The Times. “If Ronald Reagan is brilliant in Moscow (at the upcoming U.S.-Soviet summit), that will help George Bush.”

The lengthy jousting between Bush and his Republican challengers has strengthened the vice president’s standing for the general election, most believe, because of the command shown by his campaign staff and the overwhelming size of his victories.

Seen as Much Stronger

“He was stronger than anyone thought he was,” said Don Devine, a former Dole strategist.

“Not too many people dislike him,” added Keene. “I don’t think it’s easy to find people who live in fear of a Bush presidency.”

The “decency factor” that Bush associates refer to as a tough-to-measure--but helpful--weapon is but one component of what the vice president’s campaign contends is a major source of strength.

“Ronald Reagan has survived a lot of what’s happened because no one doubts his strength of character, his honesty, integrity. Same with George Bush,” said one Bush strategist who believes the vice president’s personality will wear well over the long general election campaign.

“What is sometimes perceived as weakness, sometimes perceived as wimp, turns out to be a positive.”

Even the element of Bush’s approach most often criticized--his reluctance to step out from under Reagan’s mantle and establish firm positions of his own--is portrayed by Bush allies as a necessary evil if he is to be considered as strong in character.

“There are several issues he could have separated himself (from Reagan) and picked up political support,” a Bush campaign aide said. “It would get him support--but it won’t get him support in the long term. That really is a break in the strength of character.”

Vaguely Perceived as Leader

Bush officials say the vice president has two basic issues--character and leadership--but polls taken throughout the political season indicate that voters, although they may buy the first, are reluctant to characterize Bush as possessing the latter.

According to polls by the Los Angeles Times, voters cast ballots for Bush because of his experience. “Leadership” was cited by fewer than one-third of the Bush voters, while “experience” was cited by nearly twice as many voters. Dole, in contrast, was more likely to win votes for “leadership.”

That finding could foreshadow problems for Bush should the Democrats center their general election race on the issue of leadership. At this early stage, polls show Bush nearly in a dead heat when placed in a hypothetical race against Democrat Michael S. Dukakis. Against the Rev. Jesse Jackson, Bush fares much better.

The potential closeness of a Dukakis-Bush race raises concerns among some who fear that the early conclusion of Bush’s primary season will work against him.

“There’s some question that because the opposition faltered he wasn’t tested,” said Keene. “The development of a candidate and the honing of a message are best accomplished under fire.”

But others suggest that the comparatively leisurely pace that Bush can now set will prove a bonus, giving him time to pull his agenda together and work to build alliances. What he needs to do, Democrats and Republicans alike suggest, is develop his own set of priorities, reaching beyond those of the Reagan Administration.

‘Desire for Change’

“His weakness is (that) there is a widespread desire for change and . . . Bush doesn’t look like the candidate able to offer change,” said Schneider of the American Enterprise Institute.

“They (the voters) don’t want to erase what Ronald Reagan is credited with--having lowered inflation and a greater sense of military strength. They do want what he hasn’t achieved--the deficit, the way policies are made, sleaze,” Schneider said.

Bush has already touched on approaches to ethics and the budget deficit in campaign speeches, and aides said he will expand on those themes and others in coming months. During a three-day New York campaign swing this week, Bush is expected to outline his programs for urban revitalization.

Bush also has expressed an interest in defining Republican programs to deal with environmental concerns, education, aid to the handicapped and programs to assist AIDS victims--although he has yet to provide many specifics on any of those topics.

“What he has said up to now provides somewhat of a base,” said Bush pollster and strategist Teeter. “You broaden it, deepen it, extend it.”