The Times Poll : Tally Breaks Sharply Along Racial Lines

Climaxing the nastiest primary campaign of the year, New York whites--especially Jews--coalesced strongly behind Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis on Tuesday to overwhelm solid black support for the Rev. Jesse Jackson, the Los Angeles Times Poll found.

One indication of the deep schism between New York voter blocs was that 8 in 10 Jews interviewed in the poll asserted that Jackson is “anti-Semitic.” And among blacks, there was three times more “sympathy” for the Arab nations than for Israel, although 6 in 10 said they were neutral in this age-old Middle East conflict.

Eight in 10 blacks also contended that “there is an element of racism involved in the vote against Jackson.” And 6 in 10 white voters agreed.

In the end, three-fourths of the Jews--and two-thirds of all whites--voted for Dukakis. Jackson got 94% of the black vote. He got 14% of the white vote, as did Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr. Latinos voted 2 to 1 for Jackson over Dukakis.

Put another way, 90% of Dukakis’ support came from whites--with Jews providing one-third of his votes and Anglo Catholics more than one-third. Of Jackson’s voters, 60% were blacks, 11% were Latinos and 26% were Anglos.

Based on Times poll interviews with 3,623 Democratic voters after they had cast their ballots on Tuesday, 66% of the party’s electorate were Anglos, 24% were blacks, 7% were Latinos and 3% were Asians or American Indians. Grouped by religion, 22% of the voters were Jews--nearly approaching the number of blacks--and 26% were Anglo Catholics. Of Anglo Catholics, two-thirds voted for Dukakis.

White Factions Combine

The largest single faction backing a candidate was blacks for Jackson, composing 24% of the electorate. But in this kind of grouping, the next three largest factions were Anglo Catholics for Dukakis (18%), Jews for Dukakis (17%) and white Protestants for Dukakis (8%)--a coalition that outnumbered blacks for Jackson by nearly 2 to 1.

Times Poll Director I. A. Lewis said that in future primaries “Jackson may have trouble doing this well again, because New York was the last time he could count on this large a black constituency. He usually hasn’t been able to draw more than 15% of the white vote.”

William Schneider, a Times political analyst, said that “the rule throughout this year’s campaign has been that Jackson cannot win a primary in states where blacks do not make up a majority of the Democratic voters. He can win caucuses--as in Michigan, Delaware and Alaska--but not primaries.”

Schneider said, after examining the Times poll voter responses: “There was really only one issue in New York--Jesse Jackson.”

‘Qualities of Leadership’

People who voted for Jackson tended to think he “cares about people like me,” “has strong qualities of leadership” and “has strong convictions.” But those who voted for someone else generally pointed out that Jackson “has no experience in government.” Many also said: “I just don’t trust him,” “He can’t get elected,” and “He’s too extreme.”

Of Jackson’s voters, 9 in 10 rejected the idea that he is anti-Semitic. But among all other voters, 6 in 10 believed that he is anti-Semitic.

And in voter responses that illustrated not only a significant negative attitude toward Jackson, but also the lack of a passionate commitment to Dukakis, only 4 in 10 people who supported somebody other than Jackson said they did so mostly because their candidate “was the best man for the job.” Of Dukakis’ supporters, 6 in 10 said their votes essentially were cast for negative reasons--either “against another candidate,” to make some statement or to avoid “wasting” a ballot.

On the other hand, 6 in 10 of Jackson’s supporters believed that they had voted for “the best man.”

Statements From Koch

Voters undoubtedly were polarized to some degree by New York Mayor Edward I. Koch, who endorsed Gore and reminded Jews of Jackson’s previous ties to PLO leader Yasser Arafat, his former relationship with anti-Semite Black Muslim leader Louis Farrakhan and his “Hymietown” quip four years ago. Jews “have got to be crazy” to vote for Jackson, Koch declared. But 9% did anyway.

Through it all, Dukakis--characteristically cautious--managed to stay out of the line of fire between Koch, Gore and Jackson. The result was that on Election Day, although Jackson’s voters had a basically negative impression of Dukakis--3 to 2 unfavorable over favorable--their attitude toward Gore was much harsher. Jackson’s voters had a nearly 4-1 unfavorable impression of Gore.

Dukakis’ voters had a positive attitude toward Gore--nearly 2 to 1 favorable--but 4 in 10 said the Tennessee senator could not get elected President.

Gore’s supporters basically were neutral toward Dukakis. They regarded him largely as “too bland,” devoid of “a message” and knowing “very little about foreign affairs.”

‘A Lot of Experience’

Dukakis’ supporters, however, indicated that they were drawn to the Massachusetts governor because he has “a lot of experience in government.” They also said: “I trust him more than the others,” and “He has the best chance to win in November.”

The attitude toward Jackson by voters who supported Dukakis or Gore was highly negative--more than 2 to 1 unfavorable. And Jews held a nearly 3-1 unfavorable impression of the civil rights leader.

If New York Gov. Mario M. Cuomo had been on the ballot as a presidential candidate, he probably would have won, the Times survey indicated. Half of all Democratic voters said they would have supported Cuomo had he been a candidate.

This clearly would have hurt Dukakis the worst. Of the winner’s voters, two-thirds said they would have backed Cuomo. Half of Gore’s supporters said they also would have, as did one-third of Jackson’s.

Another indication of the voters’ lack of a strong commitment to Dukakis was that, of his backers, nearly two-thirds said their support was either just “fairly strong” or “only moderate.” By contrast, nearly 8 in 10 of Jackson’s voters said their support was “very strong.”

Opponents’ Views of Dukakis

The feeling about Dukakis by Jackson’s supporters--as with Gore’s--generally was: “He doesn’t have a message,” and “He’s too bland.”

Although Gore made a big pitch for the Jewish vote--critics accused him of “pandering”--only 14% of the Jews supported him. Put another way, however, nearly a third of Gore’s relatively meager vote came from Jews.

By far the “most important” issue to voters in New York--as it has been in virtually every other state this year--was the federal budget deficit. Roughly half the voters selected it from a list of nine issues as their top priority. And people who considered the deficit the “most important” issue voted for Dukakis by a 25-point margin over Jackson.

Only 7% of all Democrats--and 18% of Jews--cited “Palestinian disturbances in Israel” as an important factor in their voting decision.

Regarding the continuing conflict between Israelis and Arabs in the Middle East, half the voters said they supported neither side. But of those who did support a side, Israel was backed by 2 1/2 to 1. Jackson’s voters were an exception, however, siding with the Arab nations by 5 to 3.

The margin of error for the poll is 2%.

NEW YORK DEMOCRATS’ VIEWS OF JESSE JACKSON Percent of voters agreeing with the following statements:

Jewish Black Latino When you vote for Albert Gore, you take a vote away from Michael Dukakis and help Jesse Jackson. 68% 45% 50% If Jesse Jackson wins the most delegates, he should be nominated even if that means the Democrats would lose in November. 52 74 54 Jesse Jackson cannot be elected President of the United States. 74 13 29 There is an element of racism involved in the vote against Jackson. 56 84 64 Jesse Jackson is anti-Semitic. 78 5 20

Anglo Anglo Catholic Protestant Other Total When you vote for Albert Gore, you take a vote away from Michael Dukakis and help Jesse Jackson. 53% 54% 46% 54% If Jesse Jackson wins the most delegates, he should be nominated even if that means the Democrats would lose in November. 53 56 46 59 Jesse Jackson cannot be elected President of the United States. 51 54 55 45 There is an element of racism involved in the vote against Jackson. 64 54 67 66 Jesse Jackson is anti-Semitic. 43 40 41 39

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll