Planners Predict Faster Growth for Santa Clarita

The population of the Santa Clarita Valley is growing at a much faster pace than previously believed and could reach as high as 358,000 by 2010, according to a Los Angeles County Regional Planning Commission report released Monday.

The new estimate is based on housing developments pending before the commission. The previous population estimate for 2010 was 270,000, adopted in December as part of the Santa Clarita Valley general plan.

The new report was prepared by Planning Director Norman Murdoch and his staff in response to a request from commissioners concerned by the potential growth and its effects on public services.

Commissioners on Monday asked county planners to provide more details on the effects of the growth on public services. If the development is found to be detrimental, they could adopt measures to curtail growth.

The higher estimate was brought about by an increase in development applications filed with the county in the last year, when developers were anticipating voter approval of a school tax on new housing and creation of the city of Santa Clarita. The estimate adopted in December was based on figures from the beginning of 1987.

Santa Clarita City Council members, who have pledged to slow growth, said they are not surprised by the higher estimates.

“We told them the figure would be greater when they approved the 270,000 population,” said Councilwoman Jan Heidt. “But they wouldn’t listen.”

Mayor Asks Involvement

Mayor Howard P. (Buck) McKeon said he hopes the county “would involve us in what they’re doing.”

Although the report was discussed by the commission Monday, McKeon, Heidt and other Santa Clarita leaders had not seen it.

According to the report, the valley could have as many as 123,900 residences--housing about 358,000 people--by 2010. The general plan estimate is for 93,400 dwelling units. As of January, 1987, county planners estimated that the valley had 37,500 residential units and a population of 120,000.

Planners emphasized that figures contained in the report represented a worst-case scenario and assumed that “all pending projects might be approved as requested and that all vacant parcels designated for urban use actually develop.”

“It is not likely that all of the pending cases would be approved, . . .” the report said. The applications pending before the commission would require changing the land use designation on 8,492 acres from rural or hillside to urban zoning, according to county planners.

Past experience indicates that about 88% of the units will be built, according to the report. Even at that rate, the report states, a total of 115,700 residential units could exist in the Santa Clarita Valley in 2010 based on the number of projects pending.

‘Avoid Potential Problem’

“While a limited overage of units may be legally defensible, it would be prudent to avoid the potential problem of approving a surplus of dwelling units,” the report concluded.

Murdoch said many of the pending applications were submitted to the Planning Department even though actual construction is not anticipated for as many as 15 to 20 years.

This was done, he said, so that developers could obtain “vested rights” to build their projects, avoiding possible controls on growth and larger assessments for such public services as roads, sewers and schools. A large number of the projects, many with more than 1,000 residential units each, were submitted in 1986 and 1987.

Building permits also rose during that time, the report said.

“A total of 5,265 permits were issued in 1987, representing a historic high for the Santa Clarita Valley,” the report said. The average from 1980 through 1986 was 2,409.

In reaction to the higher estimates, the county planning staff was asked for “alternative approaches” for processing projects requiring zoning amendments to the general plan.

Murdoch said he favors retaining the present procedure of approving projects on a first-come basis, with some modifications and more frequent updating of the Santa Clarita Valley Local Plan. Updating the plan more frequently would require additional funding from the Board of Supervisors.

More Details Asked

He said he does not recommend various growth-control systems adopted by other areas, such as setting a certain percentage for annual growth or developing a point system that would allow a project to qualify for development.

Commissioners asked for more detailed information on the effects of the new growth projections from various county departments, including public works, recreation and parks, sheriff and fire. They also instructed that copies of the report be circulated to Santa Clarita officials and residents.

Planning commissioners will receive written comments on the report until May 16. They will continue discussion of the document at their June 2 meeting.