Support Drops for Orange County Slow-Growth Measure, Poll Shows

Support for Orange County’s slow-growth initiative has plunged sharply over the last four months, casting doubt about its chances for approval in the June 7 election, according to a poll conducted for The Times’ Orange County Edition.

The poll found that support for the initiative dropped from 73% last February to 54% today, with almost a quarter of the voters undecided. Many voters apparently no longer see the slow-growth measure as the answer to traffic congestion and smog and are increasingly worried that it could adversely affect the local economy.

The poll results seemed to reflect the effectiveness of the anti-initiative forces, which have launched an extensive campaign to defeat the measure through strategically placed highway billboards, pamphlets mailed to homeowners and personal phone calls to voters.

Campaign Message

The campaign carries the message, disputed by measure proponents, that instead of helping matters, the slow-growth initiative actually would make traffic worse by jeopardizing the completion of three new, planned transportation corridors.

The measure, known as the Citizens’ Sensible Growth and Traffic Control Initiative, would condition growth in Orange County on the ability of local roads and public services to keep pace with a growing population. It will appear as “Measure A” on the ballot.

The Orange County Poll, conducted for The Times by Mark Baldassare & Associates, provides a detailed look at voter attitudes in the days before the June 7 vote.

Compared to the last Orange County poll conducted for The Times in February, awareness of the slow-growth initiative rose 26 points to more than 75%.

But as awareness rose, support for the measure declined, dropping around 20 percentage points over the last four months. Twenty-two percent of those surveyed now oppose the measure, with 24% undecided, up from 14% in February.

Too Many Undecideds

“I don’t know if the initiative will pass,” Baldassare said last week. “Supporters outnumber opponents 2 to 1 but there are just too many undecideds. The closer you get to a vote, people start asking more questions. At that point it is up to the messengers to say this is how it’s going to help, or how it’s going to hurt.”

The survey of 600 registered voters was conducted May 11-14. The margin of error is plus or minus 4% at the 95% confidence level. That means it is 95% certain that the results are within four percentage points of what they would be if every registered voter in Orange County were interviewed.