Baseball Scouting Is Often More Miss Than Hit

This scout remains too embarrassed to use his name. But recently, over a drink, he chuckled over a judgment he made on a young player 28 years ago.

The young man was playing for Geneva of the New York-Penn League, which was then in Class D. This is what the scout -- then a rival manager -- thought of him: A second baseman, and not a very good one. Five-ten, 160 pounds. Below average arm. Break down his tools and there’s not much there. Evaluation: “Might hustle his way to Double A.”

The player’s name was Pete Rose.

You might wonder how it could happen. How could anyone be so wrong? But scouts have been miscalculating for years, and this season they’ve no doubt done it again. Every team likes to think it has covered everyone but, three or four summers from now, a player will reach major-league stardom even though he received little respect in this year’s June 1-3 draft.

Ben Hines, a Dodgers hitting instructor, tells a story about begging his friends to sign a player. Hines was coaching at LaVerne College in Los Angeles County in the 1970s. His squad included Nick Leyva, drafted by the Cardinals and now their third base coach; Dan Graham, who played for the Twins and Orioles, and John Verhoeven, who pitched for the Angels and Twins.

However, Hines knew another member of his team deserved a shot. He offered him to one scout, who hesitated. He tried elsewhere, with the same result. Finally, he called Kansas City scout Rosey Gilhousen.

“I can remember his exact words,” Hines said. “He said, ‘Ben, send him over and I’ll give him $500.”’

And so for $500, Dan Quisenberry became a Kansas City Royal.

Scouts can’t let such miscalculations bother them. They must see dozens of players in all regions of the country. Between 5 a.m. wakeup calls and rides over strange roads, they must try to grade a 17-year-old shortstop in Delaware against a 19-year-old pitcher from Oregon. You never know, after all, when a team must chose between the two.

A scout may not see a player at his best. He may not see him at all. Then there’s the matter of “projecting.” Everyone can tell you what a player looks like today. The trick is deciding what he’ll look like five years from now. And you’ve got to use time and energy wisely. Some teams won’t bother double-checking someone if they think they have no chance to get him.

It’s not an easy process and, when a scout starts second-guessing himself, it’s time to hang up the stopwatch and notepad.

The Yankees, for example, may shudder to think about 1979. They let 18 rounds of the free agent draft pass before selecting a first baseman named Don Mattingly. Like Rose, Mattingly has earned a reputation as a hard worker. Dodgers personnel man Fred Claire confirms the work ethic helps explain the difference between raw material and finished product.

“There are cases of players far surpassing expectations,” Claire said. “Those players were driven players. I hear a lot of people say in scouting that after the first rounds there is no talent there. After that, the makeup of the individual comes into the equation.”

San Diego General Manager Jack McKeon recalls watching a player in the Tampa area years ago. Some scouts thought the young man was too thick in the legs and would lack range. McKeon jokes about it now. He didn’t get the young man back in the late 1960s, but “we got him 15 years later.” In 1984, Steve Garvey helped the San Diego Padres win the National League pennant.

Longtime scout Eddie Lopat recalls that two former Montreal Expos failed to inspire awe on draft day. On June 4, 1975, the Expos waited until the 11th round to select Andre Dawson. Two years later, the Expos picked Tim Raines in the fifth round.

Mistakes can extend to the major-league level as well. Frank Cashen, who built the Mets into 1986 World Series winners, recalls that not all of his trades went well. On May 29, 1981, he sent reliever Jeff Reardon and outfielder Dan Norman to Montreal for outfielder Ellis Valentine.

Norman never amounted to much but Reardon remains in the game even today. Last fall he helped Minnesota win the World Series. As for Valentine, he played only 159 total games for the Mets, before his career peetered out in California and Texas.

“I needed power, and I made a mistake,” Cashen said, adding philosophically, “you make good drafts and bad drafts.”