The Times Poll : Dukakis Gains Victory Without Split in Party

Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis’ victory in the California primary was especially sweet because he attained it without leaving behind bitter feelings that might have been hard to soothe in November, the Los Angeles Times Poll found.

Unlike the last two presidential elections, when the state Democratic Party was deeply split by fierce fights between Walter F. Mondale and Sen. Gary Hart (1984) and President Jimmy Carter and Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (1980), the comparatively civil contest between Dukakis and the Rev. Jesse Jackson left only relatively superficial wounds.

Favorable View of Dukakis

This time, even those who did not vote for Dukakis held him in relatively high regard. Of Jackson’s supporters, for example, less than one-third said they had an unfavorable impression of Dukakis. Even among Republicans, nearly as many voters regarded the Massachusetts governor favorably as unfavorably.

But, although Dukakis will not face the task of trying to overcome a negative image in a state that political experts agree he must carry to win the presidency, he is confronted by the delicate dilemma--illustrated clearly once again in Tuesday’s primary--that California voters are leery of anybody or anything they feel may be linked to big spending and taxes. And Vice President George Bush’s strategy will be to tag Dukakis as a “tax and spender.”

Voters told the Times Poll after casting their ballots on Tuesday that they considered “the budget deficit” to be “the most important issue.” This was especially true of Republicans, but Democrats also ranked it atop their list, alongside “drugs.”

Voters’ worries about budget deficits, however, did not mean that they were unconcerned about other problems that could require big bucks to resolve. They were selective. For example, Democrats and Republicans alike placed “education” near the top of their list of “most important issues.” By contrast, “traffic” was near the bottom.

Ten years after the anti-tax revolt led to overwhelming voter approval of Proposition 13--the landmark ballot measure that substantially reduced property taxes--Californians indicated that they still were not willing to give politicians carte blanche access to their tax dollars.

By 2 to 1, voters subscribed to the general statement that “with the state treasury a billion dollars short, this is no time to be borrowing more bond money for new programs.” People who thought this way voted 3 to 2 against Gov. George Deukmejian’s proposed $1-billion bond issue for transportation projects, Proposition 74. However, picking and choosing, about half of these same voters sided with the $776-million parks bond issue (Proposition 70) and with the $800-million school bond issue (Proposition 75).

By 3 to 1, voters thought California “should continue to finance highway construction on a pay-as-you-go basis with gasoline taxes--and not by borrowing money that costs interest.” But this feeling was not always reflected in the vote on Proposition 74, because roughly 4 in 10 voters who preferred gasoline taxes voted for the proposed bonds also.

And, nine years after voters placed a government spending limit in the California Constitution, they exhibited a reluctance to tinker with it. By 2 to 1, Tuesday’s voters agreed with the statement that “once they raise the state spending limit, they’ll use the money for whatever they want.”

4,705 Voters Interviewed

The Times poll, directed by I. A. Lewis, interviewed 4,705 voters, including 2,999 Democrats, after they had cast ballots throughout California. The margin of error was 2 percentage points for all those surveyed and 3 percentage points for the Democrats.

Democrats had a high regard for Dukakis, the poll showed. More than two-thirds--69%--said their impression was favorable; only 16% said it was unfavorable. Even Jackson’s voters had a basically favorable impression of their candidate’s opponent--36% to 32%, with 32% neutral--indicating a willingness by most to close ranks in November.

By contrast, a majority of California Democrats who voted for Hart in the 1984 primary left the balloting booths with an unfavorable impression of Mondale, the ultimate nominee. And in 1980, more than three-fourths of Kennedy’s supporters walked away with an unfavorable impression of Carter.

Among Republicans on Tuesday, the view of Dukakis was 4 to 3 negative, with almost one-third expressing no opinion. By contrast, in the 1980 primary, Republican voters’ impression of Carter was 5 to 1 negative.

Negative About Jackson

Dukakis’ voters, however, had a negative view of Jackson--only 27% favorable to 48% unfavorable--indicating that the Democratic nominee potentially could lose some of his supporters to Bush if he were suspected of catering too much to the civil rights leader.

Four out of 10 Dukakis supporters on Tuesday said they had voted for President Reagan in 1984. Dukakis’ supporters also had an overwhelmingly negative impression of Bush, by about 3 to 1.

As in every other primary this year, Anglos voted for Dukakis and blacks voted for Jackson. And Anglos outnumbered blacks among the California Democratic electorate by nearly 4 to 1 (Anglos 61%, blacks 16%).

But Jackson’s showing among Anglos in California was among his best of any primary this year. He drew 22% of the Anglo vote here--three times more than he did in the 1984 California primary. Anglos who described themselves as “very liberal” voted for Jackson by 5 to 4. And about one-fifth of Jews voted for Jackson, despite accusations by many Jewish leaders dating back to 1984 that some of his statements and positions have been anti-Semitic.

Among blacks, 95% went for Jackson. And the majority of them did so believing he “was the best man for the job.” This was also the phrase picked most often by Jackson’s Anglo voters, but not nearly as frequently as by blacks.

Dukakis got 59% of the Latino vote and 73% of the support of Anglos. (Five percent of Anglos voted for other candidates on the ballot). Latinos and Anglos both felt primarily that Dukakis was “the best man for the job.”

This was the first time in 24 years that the party’s “Establishment” candidate has won the Democratic presidential primary in California. Beginning in 1968, Californians deserted the national party Establishment and voted for Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, Sen. George S. McGovern, Gov. Edmund G. Brown Jr., Sen. Edward M. Kennedy and Sen. Gary Hart. On Tuesday, in fact, among the phrases picked most often by Democratic voters to describe Dukakis was that “he represents the party Establishment.”

HOW CALIFORNIA DEMOCRATS VOTED

Dukakis Jackson By region North 64% 33% South 56% 39% By ethnic group Anglo 73% 22% Latino 59% 36% Black 4% 95% Asian 50% 46% American Indian 80% 17% By political outlook Very liberal 31% 67% Somewhat liberal 57% 39% Middle of road 72% 24% Somewhat conservative 67% 24% Very conservative 57% 38% By sex Male 57% 37% Female 63% 34% By 1984 vote Reagan 75% 16% for President Mondale 57% 41% By education level Not a high school graduate 65% 34% High school graduate 69% 27% Some college 56% 38% Undergraduate degree 61% 35% Some graduate school 46% 51% Graduate degree 49% 45% By age 18-30 51% 47% 31-45 50% 46% 46-64 66% 28% 65 or older 78% 18% By household Less than $20,000 60% 38% income 59% 36% More than $40,000 61% 34% By religion Protestant 62% 34% Catholic 69% 27% Jewish 73% 20% Other 34% 63%

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll