Midwest Drought: To Bush Aides, It’s the Time to Show Compassion

His feet stubbing the stunted corn stalks in Raymond Poe’s dusty field, Vice President George Bush strode up a wilted hill here Saturday to confront the drought that is ravaging the Midwest and poses, as all things do this political season, the doubled edge of opportunity or threat to his presidential campaign.

He sat on hay bales and chatted with farmers as security agents stood guard over a farm landscape that was empty--except for two busloads of reporters and camera crews and a few invited neighbors. Behind Bush sat a green plow, an American flag waving from its cab.

After a half-hour of chitchat with farmers, Bush told why he had come.

“I’ve learned how serious this problem is of drought and the kind of suffering that it can cause,” Bush said.

‘Darn Good Formula’

“When agricultural America is hurting, of course we care,” he added. “We want to come and show just by being here the concern we feel--and you learn something, so it’s a pretty darn good formula.”

What Bush advisers hope is that his visit will demonstrate his compassion without making Bush a lightning rod for the frustrations of suffering farmers. In the Midwest, where Bush has never been politically strong, some advisers are concerned that a continuing drought could hurt his chances in November.

Some, certainly, sneer at that suggestion.

“Blame the drought on the vice president? I blame the drought on Dukakis,” snorted Illinois Gov. James R. Thompson, a key Bush ally here. “How do you like that? Doesn’t that make just as much sense?

“I don’t believe farmers are going to confuse the vice president with God,” Thompson added. “They don’t look anything alike.”

But few other politicians or farm officials are as certain as Thompson about the drought’s political repercussions. Most agree that the adverse conditions are likely to make political reactions volatile. And, if farmers become angry at the Administration’s response to the crisis, they say, Bush will likely suffer.

Psychological Impact

“The way droughts develop, which is slowly, has a torturing effect on the psychology of those affected,” said Rep. Jim Leach of Iowa, a strong Bush supporter concerned about the impact.

“It takes an enormously resilient spirit to come back, but it saps a great deal and it causes people to look to alternatives.”

Whether the drought wreaks havoc or actually benefits Bush’s campaign depends largely on the scope of the still-unfolding natural disaster.

Several agricultural officials and Midwestern politicians believe that if crops are severely damaged or destroyed altogether, Democrats will ride on the discontent.

“If there is a natural disaster like a drought, the party out of power and the party of (aid) programs benefits--and that would appear to be very Democratic,” Leach said.

But the vice president’s expected opponent, Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis, is not a natural heir to the farm constituency. Indeed, last year he drew titters from the farm community for suggesting that suffering Iowa corn and soybean farmers try planting flowers, Belgian endive and blueberries on their land. “Yuppie agriculture,” sniffed some farmers.

Sees Reticence on Subject

“He hasn’t shown any inclination to express himself agriculturally as far as I’ve seen,” said Donald E. Henderson, vice president of the Indiana Farm Bureau.

Henderson holds the same impression of Bush. In fact, neither man did well in their parties’ most important Farm Belt political contest, the Iowa caucuses. Bush finished third, behind Kansas Sen. Bob Dole and religious broadcaster Pat Robertson; Dukakis was beaten by Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt and Illinois Sen. Paul Simon.

Perhaps paradoxically, several farm and political officials argue that the drought could, if its scope is limited, prove a boon to Bush.

“Farmers will vote on their understanding of where the candidates stand on farm issues,” said Thompson, who accompanied Bush to the Poe farm Saturday.

“The Reagan-Bush Administration has done more than any Administration in the history of the United States to help farmers come back from the devastation of low prices,” he added, referring to programs enacted in the landmark 1985 farm bill.

Others agree, arguing that a drought-caused cutback in crop supplies would increase crop prices disproportionately, allowing some farmers to escape this year with few losses, and perhaps small gains, despite the drought.

“If you have across-the-board or in particular areas a 25% reduction of harvest and a 75% increase in prices, Republicans might look pretty good,” Leach said.

Assistance programs included in the 1985 farm bill that kick in during the drought will “underscore what the Administration has done,” said George Wittgraf, Bush’s Iowa campaign manager.

Henderson, of the Indiana Farm Bureau, said most farmers are “very pleased” with the farm bill’s provisions, and the Reagan Administration’s association with it could win Bush a “considerable” number of votes in the fall.

A Matter of Concern

A larger political payoff--and one over which Bush has considerably more control--will go to Bush if he can shake off his aloof image and convince farmers and other Americans that he is concerned about their problems.

Polls consistently have shown that voters think that Bush, with his patrician upbringing, has little feel for the lives of ordinary Americans. His campaign--which thus far has been heavy on sterile, technologically oriented events and light on human moments--has done little to dispel that perception.

The crisis, with its harsh images of stunted crops and suffering farmers, could give Bush or Dukakis a touching backdrop for a show of concern. Indeed, that seemed the point of Bush’s visit Saturday.

“It’s imperative,” said Leach, “that anyone serious about representing people understand (the need for) compassion and understanding to those in need--and that is a growing part of the Farm Belt.”

In any event, Bush has moved quickly to public view in the farm crisis. Last week, he invited photographers to the Agriculture Department in Washington to watch as he and Dole received a briefing on the Farm Belt’s woes. He added Saturday’s farm visit to his schedule late last week.

Little Help to Offer

But besides good wishes, Bush had little hard assistance to offer Saturday. When farmers asked him for a deferral of farm loan payments and for the opening of more federal lands for grazing, Bush was noncommittal.

He promised that Agriculture Secretary Richard E. Lyng would be “as flexible as possible” in dealing with the crisis. But, he added: “I don’t know of any real short-term answers . . . other than what the secretary’s already done.”

In the long run, messages of concern alone--by either candidate--will not engender fondness on the part of farmers, the Indiana Farm Bureau’s Henderson said.

“Anyone involved in being helpful to farmers has got to be able to push legislation through the Congress and the Administration that would be especially beneficial,” he said.

But the farmers Bush chatted with Saturday could not agree among themselves on one program they need above others.