Yes, Virginia, There Will Be a Summer Next Year!

The horrible thought occurred that if the strike continues, as it’s been continuing and continuing, will we have anything to see next summer?

Not to worry . . . that much.

“It’s basically a television strike,” insists Jeff Sagansky, Tri-Stars’s president of film production.

Sagansky’s assessment (and the production blueprints at most Hollywood studios) indicates that the effect of the now-20-week-old Writers Guild strike has been limited to date. While he concedes that a prolonged strike would have an impact, the next 18 months will see no product shortage. Already, summer 1989 is shaping up as the battle of the numbers at the box office and on the marquee.

A survey of releases for next summer revealed such revisited titles as “The Exorcist III” (Weintraub), “Fletch II” (Universal), “The Fly II (Fox), “Star Trek V” (Paramount), “Ghostbusters II” and “Karate Kid III” (Columbia) and “Dirty Dancing II” (Vestron).

A sample of the things to come:

* Disney: A studio spokeswoman said the company had nothing set in stone. However, she stated that the Woody Allen-Francis Coppola-Martin Scorsese “New York Stories” appeared like a probable candidate for that period. Also a strong candidate is “Grounded,” the story of a group of youngsters shrunk to miniature scale who encounter amazing “Incredible Shrinking Man”-style adventures on their journey home across a suburban lawn. Plus there are plans for “Three Men and a Little Lady,” the sequel to “Three Men and a Baby,” but it now seems more a likely bet for Christmas ’89.

* Columbia: The new regime at the studio will send off the summer with “Casualties of War,” the Michael J. Fox--Sean Penn Vietnam combat film directed by Brian DePalma. It’s currently filming in Thailand. Plus the studio hopes to have the long-awaited “Ghostbusters II” and “Karate Kid III,” according to a spokesman, but those depend on final scripts pending the end of the strike and just when the stars are available.

* MGM: The studio has water on the brain. “Leviathan,” currently filming in Rome, is an underwater exploration yarn complete with creatures from the deep. Peter Weller stars for director George Cosmatos. “Blue Lightning,” the story of drug smuggling in high-speed boats, is “strike bound.” It began pre-production in Miami on the eve of the strike. Second unit material was filmed but the production was abandoned when script rewrites couldn’t be completed before principal photography. MGM hopes filming can resume to meet the planned summer release.

* Orion Pictures: A studio spokesman stated that the company probably would be looking seriously at Terry Jones’ Nordic spoof “Erik the Viking” and Milos Forman’s “Valmont,” a variation on the book “Les Liaisons Dangeureuses,” for summer runs. Additionally, with the success of “Bull Durham,” the studio might be looking at Rodney Dangerfield’s baseball comedy “The Scout” to pack the popcorn bleachers.

* Paramount Pictures: Unquestionably the big-number studio with “Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade” (a.k.a. “Indie III”) and “Star Trek V.” “Jones” is currently in production and “Star Trek V,” which has a completed script, will start filming in October when Leonard Nimoy completes his directing duties on Disney’s “The Good Mother” and dons his pointy ears. William Shatner will do double duty on the bridge and behind the camera as director. Additionally, an as-yet-unnamed Eddie Murphy film is being considered for the hot months.

* Tri-Star Pictures: “We’re too young to have a sequel,” quipped a Tri-Star spokesman. So, even if some of its mid-1989 product looks familiar, none is an official re-working or continuation. Planned for next year is a zany re-teaming (remember “Silver Streak”?) of Gene Wilder and Richard Pryor with director Arthur Hiller. Titled “See No Evil, Hear No Evil,” it’s a comic adventure involving a deaf man (Wilder) and his blind buddy (Pryor). Also up for laughs: Mel Brooks will direct “I Love You to Death,” a black comedy based on the true story of a woman attempting to kill her husband after she discovers his philandering ways.

Matthew Broderick will play a young corporate executive in Sidney Lumet’s “Family Business” who discovers from his eccentric grandfather Sean Connery that he’s the scion of robber barons. And more: Tri-Star plans to release “The Bear,” the maiden effort of the Frank Price company. It’s the story of an orphaned cub adopted by an older bear and taught essential survival techniques.

* 20th Century Fox: There’s a strong likelihood of horrible consequences from Fox in the form of “Fly II: The Insect Awakes” and James Cameron’s “The Abyss.” The latter, set to shoot shortly in South Carolina, is a futuristic romantic-thriller set on an oil rigger at sea. Another possibility, pending the end of the writers’ strike, is “Dick Tracy,” with Warren Beatty to direct and star as the comic cop in 1930s Chicago.

* United Artists: No hesitation here, it’s James Bond in his 15th outing for the studio. Timothy Dalton returns in “Licensed Revoked,” which begins filming in Mexico next month.

* Universal: Again, a studio strong on numbers. This time it’s “Back to the Future II” and Chevy Chase in “Fletch II.” When asked if “Dragnet II” was another possibility, a studio spokesman said talent availability would make that very impossible but, “You can never have too many twos.” Also scheduled for summer: the Spike Lee comedy currently filming in New York, “Do the Right Thing.”

* Warner Brothers: Or, the studio without a number. It hopes to launch “Batman” with Michael Keaton and Jack Nicholson on Memorial Day 1989 (going head-to-head with “Indie III”). The studio will also have ‘89’s Arnold Schwarzenegger movie in the form of “Sergeant Rock,” another comic book hero. A studio spokesman offered the possibility that two acquisitions from Lorimar--”Witches” and “Dead Bang”--could figure in the summer slate. “Witches” is a live-action fantasy from producer Jim Henson and “Bang” stars Don Johnson in a cross-country police thriller.

* Vestron is confident it’s “Dirty Dancing II” will clean the floor of all competition.

* Castle Rock plans its updated “Lord of the Flies,” to film in Jamaica in August.

Phil Garfinkle of Entertainment Data Inc., a Hollywood-based analysis and information company, concurred with Sagansky’s assessment of no immediate product shortage. But he added that most exhibitors would welcome fewer major releases during the summer to allow for longer playing time.

“This summer has had a lot of strong product which might have done even better if the studios hadn’t been releasing two or three major films every week that wound up displacing movies that had been playing well,” he stated. “I’m sure the exhibitors would welcome the prospect that the strike might mean a dozen fewer films in the marketplace next summer.”