L.A. Schools May See Enrollment Decline This Year

In contrast to previous years, enrollment in the mammoth Los Angeles Unified School District may hold even or decline in the fall, according to new estimates released Thursday.

A decline in enrollment would mean less district income from the state and could result in cutbacks in programs or personnel. Officials said a drop-off also could influence future board deliberations over the need for districtwide year-round schooling to ease overcrowding.

Last fall, the 587,000-student district experienced a substantially lower-than-expected rise in enrollment--receiving only 2,000 new students instead of the projected 12,000. At the time, officials viewed the slowdown in growth as temporary and believed that it was caused by uncertainty among immigrant families about the amnesty law.

Immigration Law Influence

The immigration law may still be influencing immigrant families’ decisions about whether or where to send their children to school, and it contributes to “the strong possibility that there will be no (enrollment) growth in 1988-89 and that . . . there may even be a decline,” district Budget Director Henry Jones said Thursday.

District officials said other factors contributing to the enrollment slowdown are an increase in dropouts, private school enrollment and general economic conditions.

Officials did not give exact figures for the size of a possible drop-off in enrollment.

But Jones said that because of an increase in births in Los Angeles County in 1983 and 1984, the enrollment slump will be “a short-lived phenomenon” and that the numbers of pupils will begin to surge again next year.

He said the county recorded 140,354 live births in 1983 and 144,071 in 1984. In 1986, the number rose to an estimated 160,577. Figures indicate that about 34% of youngsters born in the county in 1983 will enter district kindergartens this fall.

“You can see that the birthrate alone will continue to cause an increase in enrollment. We will have increased enrollment even if in- and out-migration stabilize,” Jones said.

‘Minimal’ Impact

If enrollment stays the same this fall, the budgetary impact would be minimal, he added. The district has put funds to cover the costs of 3,000 additional students into a reserve account, so no programs would suffer cutbacks if those students do not show up.

Board member Rita Walters said she would welcome a lull in the enrollment because it “would give us a little room to breathe” and allow the district to relieve crowded conditions in many neighborhood schools that either are operating year-round or busing excess students to less-crowded campuses.

Board member Jackie Goldberg agreed but said the projected enrollment slowdown would not “change the reality of where we are right now,” which is not being able to build new classrooms fast enough to stop busing or take about 130,000 students off year-round schedules. She said any idea that the enrollment forecast might lead to rejection of districtwide year-round schooling is “wishful thinking.”

‘Obvious’ Effect

However, board President Roberta Weintraub said one effect of a second straight year of little or no growth in enrollment is that “we don’t need to go year-round” districtwide. “That seems obvious. I don’t think we can count kids who don’t exist.”

She also said she had “no confidence that the numbers will start to rise” in 1989 because of the inaccuracy of projections over the last few years.

Another board member, Julie Korenstein, who like Weintraub strongly opposes expansion of year-round schooling, said she hopes that projections for this year turn out to be accurate because the shortfall in last year’s enrollment caused numerous disruptions, particularly for teachers who had to be transferred because too few students enrolled. She agreed with Weintraub that this year’s projections suggest at the very least that the district should not “rush to judgment” on the year-round issue, which the board is due to take up again this fall.

Year-Round Issue

District staff initially proposed putting all schools on year-round schedules three years ago, when the district experienced a record enrollment jump of 13,000 students. At the time, the district was projecting that enrollment would climb by 12,000 to 14,000 students annually.