The Times Poll : Voters Indicate Quayle Hurts Bush’s Chances

Indiana Sen. Dan Quayle is a noticeable drag on George Bush’s presidential race, with roughly half the voters believing that he would not be qualified to take over the nation’s leadership if ever called upon, the Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

The survey also found some discouraging news for Democratic nominee Michael S. Dukakis: His “negatives” now are very high--slightly worse, in fact, than Quayle’s. The voters’ impression of Vice President Bush, however, is generally favorable.

People who watched last Wednesday night’s televised debate between Quayle and Texas Sen. Lloyd Bentsen felt overwhelmingly that Bentsen displayed the most knowledge, showed the strongest character, responded best under pressure, answered questions more directly--and just seemed the most “presidential.”

Alone, Bush Does Well

Clear evidence that Quayle hurts Bush politically was found when Times interviewers divided voters into two groups--asking half their preference between Bush and Dukakis, and asking the other half to choose between the Bush/Quayle and Dukakis/Bentsen tickets. Running alone, Bush was 9 points ahead of Dukakis. But when coupled with Quayle, Bush barely ran ahead of the Democratic governor.

Which result is closer to today’s campaign reality, of course, depends on how much weight each voter places on the vice presidential candidates in deciding whom they should support for President. And this poll showed that voters, at least for now, regard the running mates’ qualifications as important.

The Times poll, directed by I. A. Lewis, interviewed 893 registered voters for three days ending on Monday in an effort to learn their reactions to the Quayle-Bentsen debate and to measure the impact it might have on their choice for President. The margin of error was 4 percentage points in either direction, except when those surveyed were divided in half for the “whom would you vote for?” question. Then the error margin was 5 points.

In the Bush-Dukakis match-up, the result was Bush 48%, Dukakis 39%, “others” 1% and undecided 12%. This represented an appreciable improvement for Bush over three previous Times surveys beginning a month ago. In each of those polls, Bush and Dukakis ran virtually even.

But when the candidates’ running mates were mentioned to voters in this latest survey, the results again came out close to even: Bush/Quayle 44%, Dukakis/Bentsen 41%, “others” 1%, undecided 14%.

Quayle’s drag on Bush and, correspondingly, the weakness of Dukakis’ support both were illustrated when people were asked whether their vote was “mostly in favor” of one ticket or “mostly against” the other. Among Dukakis’ supporters, 40% said they were siding with the Democratic ticket “mostly” because they were against Bush/Quayle. Only 22% of Bush’s supporters felt that way about Dukakis/Bentsen.

Asked which running mate they thought “would do the best job if he were ever called upon to be President,” those interviewed said Bentsen by nearly 2 to 1.

Three-fourths of the voters regarded Bentsen as “qualified to take over the job of President.” Only 2 in 5 voters believed this about Quayle.

The overwhelming majority of voters--85%--said they regard the qualifications of running mates to be an important factor in their decision about whom to vote for, perhaps because four of the last eight presidents have first served as vice president. Voters even were inclined to think that, if anything, more emphasis should be placed on the running mates’ qualifications during the campaign.

Reflects on Judgment

And by 2 to 1, voters said Bush’s selection of Quayle as his running mate “reflects unfavorably on Bush’s judgment”--a message Dukakis has been trying to sell voters in television commercials and stump speeches.

But Dukakis has been having trouble selling himself, this survey showed. Voters were almost evenly divided in their impressions of the Democratic candidate--46% favorable and 45% unfavorable.

By contrast, in mid-July--before Bush launched an extensive series of negative ads and speeches aimed at portraying Dukakis as a “tax and spend,” “soft on crime” liberal--a Times survey found that the Democrat was benefitting from a highly positive impression rating of 66% favorable, 18% unfavorable.

In the latest survey, the voters’ impression of Quayle--though not very good for a national candidate--was even slightly better than Dukakis’: 44% favorable, 40% unfavorable.

Basically Positive

And Bush, who had suffered from “high negatives” earlier in the year, now enjoys a basically positive impression rating of 61% favorable and 33% unfavorable.

The voters’ attitude toward Bentsen was the most positive of any of the four candidates: 61% favorable, 22% unfavorable.

Two-thirds of those interviewed said they watched the Bentsen-Quayle debate. And voters scored it for Bentsen 42%, Quayle 13%, even 20%, not sure 25%.

People felt, by nearly 3 to 1, that Quayle’s answers were “more scripted” than Bentsen’s.

Fair Treatment

But they thought, also by nearly 3 to 1, that Quayle “treated his opponent more fairly.”

Voters did not think, however, that either candidate was any more “likable” or showed much more “warmth” than the other.

They regarded “the most important topic” raised during the debate as the federal budget deficit, followed by Social Security, the candidates’ own qualifications and the environment.

The most memorable line, by far, was Bentsen’s comment to Quayle: “ . . . Senator, you’re no Jack Kennedy.”

VOTERS’ IMPRESSIONS OF. . . . .

Favorable Unfavorable Vice President George Bush (R) 61% 33% Senator Lloyd Bentsen (D) 61 22 Governor Michael Dukakis (D) 46 45 Senator Dan Quayle (R) 44 40

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll