College Basketball : Finishing First Usually Takes Having a Good Second Wind These Days

An important factor in figuring who might win a race is understanding how the race is run.

College basketball’s long season doesn’t always go to the swiftest or strongest. More often, in fact, it goes to the team that gains a second wind--the good team that becomes a better one later in the season.

Kansas caught a second wind last season, thanks to a string of mishaps. Injuries, academic troubles and other problems flushed the Jayhawks of several players at mid-year, but left a sound group that banded around superstar Danny Manning. It’s doubtful Kansas would have found its second wind without the forced personnel changes.

Indiana two years ago got its second wind from the development of junior-college transfers Dean Garrett and Keith Smart. Once they became acclimated and confident, a good team grew into a champion.

Louisville, Georgetown and North Carolina State are three other recent champions that discovered themselves in the stretch.

The second-wind concept has been vital this decade, not only in determining the champion but most Final Four teams.

There are a few exceptions. Arizona last season was steady from start to finish. But very few No. 1s in December and January sustain the lead.

College basketball’s parity has magnified the importance of having a second wind. With so many teams capable of a good run, the ones that find a way to improve as the season wears are the ones with the best chances to win.

Under that guideline, the 1988-89 college season contains many possibilities. Several top teams have makeups for improvement at the most appropriate time.

One thing is sure, though, for the 16th straight season a team will not repeat as national champion. On Nov. 1, Kansas was placed on three years’ probation.

The chase to succeed Kansas brings a diverse field, one sure to be swayed by any team finding its stride late in the season.

Georgetown, Syracuse, Oklahoma, Arizona, Iowa and Georgia Tech are examples of teams mixing solid veterans with promising newcomers. If the mesh comes together at the right time, the teams might surge.

Louisville, Michigan, Missouri, Villanova and Stanford are teams that have made only minimal changes from a year ago. Each lost one starter. Their second wind is partly dependent upon not trying to rush their expectations. Experienced clubs with high expectations often sizzle early and fizzle late.

Illinos, Duke and Florida are teams whose recent styles are likely to change because of personnel. Illinois isn’t quite as big, Duke and Florida now are among the country’s biggest teams.

Then there are teams that undergo significant and unexpected changes, such as what happened to Kansas last season. North Carolina already belongs to that category with star forward J.R. Reid out until January with a foot injury.

Before Reid’s injury, the Tar Heels were considered an elite team based on the return of five starters and eight of the top nine players from last season. But the Heels appeared to be a team with little chance of changing during the season. Thus, little chance for a second wind.

Reid’s injury, however, means North Carolina will make a significant change in midseason when he returns. Whether it will be a good one remains to be seen, but the Heels are a team to watch closely at tournament time.

The four to count on are Georgetown, Michigan, Arizona and Duke. Their makeups are perfect to benefit from a second wind next March.

Georgetown’s situation almost mirrors what the Hoyas faced in 1982. The Hoyas then were adding freshmen center Patrick Ewing to a talented and experienced guard-oriented team. The Hoyas this year are adding freshman center Alonzo Mourning, a Ewing clone, to established guards Charles Smith, Mark Tillmon and Jaren Jackson.

The Hoyas of ’82 played for the national championship, and it won’t be surprising if this year’s Hoyas do the same.

Michigan has been among the better teams over the last few years not to reach the Final Four. That could be corrected this season.

The Wolverines lost star guard Gary Grant, but Rumeal Robinson will prove a better leader and clutch player. The frontcourt has NBA-like skills and there is more depth than a year ago. Robinson’s competitiveness will be pivotal down the stretch.

Arizona will have more size and athletic skill than last season’s Final Four team, and a stronger Pacific-10 will toughen these younger Wildcats. Sean Elliott’s scoring can carry Arizona until the youngsters are comfortable.

Duke looks strongest to start the season. The Blue Devils return All-America Danny Ferry and several other veterans, and have established an ability to win at tournament time with two Final Four showings in the last three years.

This season represents a significant change, however. Recent Duke teams relied on outstanding perimeter defense keyed by Tommy Amaker and Billy King, winners of the past two Henry Iba awards as the country’s top defensive player. This year’s Devils will emphasize size with three 6-foot-10 players among the team’s top seven.

Duke’s new look should produce a second wind, and could bring the Devils a national title in spring.