Analysis : Exit of Baja Governor Appears to Be Tale of a Sinking Political Star

The press and officialdom of the border state of Baja California dutifully trotted out their encomiums Wednesday for Gov. Xicotencatl Leyva Mortera, who stunned the political world here this week by announcing his resignation to assume a post with a Mexican government banking agency in Washington. His six-year term doesn’t expire for almost 10 months.

“An honor,” intoned the pro-government daily El Mexicano.

Behind the parting panegyrics, however, was a hard, cold reality that titillated opposition leaders but left loyalists shaking their heads in dismay, even if they had to remain publicly upbeat.

Leyva, most observers agree, is being dumped unceremoniously, at the age of 48, in a premeditated effort by Mexico’s ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party--known by its Spanish initials as the PRI--to clean up its image before next July’s gubernatorial elections here. (Leyva, like all of Mexico’s 32 governors, is a PRI member, hand-picked by the former president.) Mexican governors are promoted to cabinet posts, observers note dryly, not to newly created slots at relatively obscure bodies.

The brusque move, analysts say, had to have the approval of, and was likely orchestrated by, Mexican President Carlos Salinas de Gortari, who assumed office Dec. 1. Party leaders, according to observers, decided that Leyva’s sagging reputation would likely drag down the PRI’s gubernatorial candidate in Baja--a state whose booming tourism and assembly-plant industries are seen as critical sources of foreign capital, particularly at a time of prolonged fiscal crisis, despite its population of fewer than 3 million.

Observers say that Leyva’s continued presence as an easy target of opposition candidates--indeed, as a vivid symbol of stagnated PRI leadership--might cost the party its first-ever loss of a governorship, an especially significant prospect in a highly centralized system in which governors serve almost as viceroys for a near-imperial president.

There is also talk that Leyva wanted his candidate to succeed him, while Salinas is adamant about selecting someone closer to his reformist view of Mexican politics. It will be one of Salinas’ first opportunities to name a governor.

“This is Leyva’s political destierro (banishment),” said J. Jesus Blancornelas, editor of the combative weekly Zeta, which has attacked the governor relentlessly for his purported incompetence and tolerance of corruption and cronyism. “He’s not only being sent out of the state, they’re shipping him out of the country! Washington is Leyva’s Siberia.”

The move underscores the political winds of change that have swept over Mexico in the past year, a year that has seen the PRI face its most serious electoral challenge in its 60 years of rule in post-revolutionary Mexico.

For the PRI leadership, there had been ample trouble signs from Baja. During Leyva’s tenure, the party lost control of the municipal government of Ensenada, a city of more 200,000 residents south of Tijuana. Then, in last July’s presidential elections, Salinas lost Baja California to leftist-center candidate Cuauhtemoc Cardenas--a stunning defeat that caught analysts totally by surprise. Baja was one of only a handful of states, along with Mexico City, where Cardenas emerged victorious.

Many analysts put the blame on Leyva, who was unpopular with voters and was seen as having badly organized voters on Salinas’ behalf. Also likely hurting Leyva’s image in Mexico City was the fact that he openly backed another PRI candidate and not Salinas during the pre-election jockeying that serves as Mexico’s nomination process.

There were other, non-political liabilities. Charges of corruption by opponents and the press have dogged the Leyva administration. Critics saw Leyva as an ineffectual administrator who was manipulated by his father, himself a former governor, and was unable to control the activities of his brother, Edgardo, some of whose associations have raised eyebrows here.

Leyva’s image, such as it was, plummeted even further last September, when he was involved in two highly publicized incidents during the final informe , a kind of annual State of the Union speech, of outgoing President Miguel de la Madrid. First Leyva reportedly attempted to punch a prominent opposition legislator in the Chamber of Deputies in Mexico City, where the speech was given. And, after the speech, Leyva, in an apparent gesture of support, was seen running after the presidential limousine along with the security guards, an act that many saw as below the dignity of the governor.

The view that Leyva has been banished is widespread here--even among PRI insiders who publicly congratulate the governor on his supposed promotion. Such banishments are not uncommon in Mexico, where power is closely concentrated in Mexico City and distance from the capital is often seen as damaging to political careers.

Some party loyalists acknowledged privately that they agreed with the strategy. “It’s a brilliant strategic move by Salinas,” said one gleeful party insider. “The president has sent a message to the people: Things are not the same as before.”

But PRI opponents say it won’t be that easy. Leyva’s record in more than five years in office is certain to be a constant campaign theme. And the border area remains a historical area of opposition.

“The damage has been done,” said Eugenio Elorduy, an official with the opposition National Action Party, known by its Spanish initials as the PAN, which controls Ensenada.

Today, the state Congress is expected to name a successor to Leyva, a choice that most believe will be dictated from Mexico City. In late February or early March, the PRI and other parties are likely to name their gubernatorial candidates, and the real battle will begin.