Times Orange County Poll : Survey Shows Change in Cold War Thinking

Soviet Leader Mikhail Gorbachev is rated more favorably than President Bush in largely Republican Orange County, which handed Bush and Ronald Reagan their greatest margins of victory of any county in the nation in the last three presidential elections.

In this bellwether conservative region, The Los Angeles Times Orange County Poll has found signs of new thinking on both foreign and domestic issues. Nearly half the people believe that the Cold War is coming to an end and that Japan and the Third World are greater threats to the United States’ future than the Soviet Union or China. Twice as many people favor decreasing the U.S. military presence overseas as favor an expanded role.

Leading Republican consultant Stu Spencer, a longtime Reagan adviser, sees such Orange County attitudes as part of a national trend: “The message is that Orange County is more in the mainstream of American thinking than the perception. Thinking on the Cold War undoubtedly is changing due to Ronald Reagan’s policies. His handling of the Soviets has an 80% national approval rate with only 8% negative.

“So a conservative leader’s accomplishments have affected conservatives at home,” said Spencer, whose office is in Irvine. “Sure there’s a shift. You can prove there’s a shift by the numbers--these numbers are in line with what I expected.”

The results of the Times poll underscore the dilemma Bush faces this week as he officially begins work in the Oval Office. Sunday, for example, Brent Scowcroft, the new President’s national security adviser, declared flatly that “the Cold War is not over” and he expressed skepticism about what he termed Gorbachev’s “peace offensive.”

If, as Spencer believes, national conservative thinking on the Soviets is shifting under the influence of Reagan’s policies, Bush may face as great a difficulty with this important domestic constituency as his Administration apparently believes that it does with the Western European allies. Scowcroft said Sunday that one of Bush’s first foreign policy priorities would be to persuade the Europeans not be be blinded by “wishful thinking” about Soviet intentions.

Responses among Orange County residents also suggest that Bush will have something less than overwhelming backing if he attempts to act on his conservative social agenda. On Monday, for example, the President telephoned a message of support to anti-abortion protesters rallying to mark the 16th anniversary of the Supreme Court’s historic ruling in Roe vs. Wade.

However, fully 60% of the Orange County residents polled oppose a Supreme Court ruling that would outlaw abortion. By an almost 3-1 margin, Orange County residents also reject further cuts in federal social and health programs as a means of reducing the national deficit.

In the realm of family values, a majority (56%) oppose a ban on the rental of X-rated videos in their community. And a stunning 82% favor educating adolescents in public schools about the use of condoms to control the spread of AIDS.

Differences With Leadership

“I am too young to be too conservative” is the way one of those polled, Alex Ball, explained his differences with the GOP’s leadership on the so-called social issues. Ball, a 28-year-old Republican, did volunteer work for Reagan in 1980 and 1984.

“I can understand Reagan’s views on moral values, but he’s 77 years old and a bit out of touch. It’s just not practical to ban abortions, and if they do, a lot of people will have regrets later,” remarked Ball, who said he voted for Bush “largely on the economic and foreign policy issues.”

On both domestic and foreign policy issues, there was not much difference in the attitudes of the county’s Republicans and Democrats. Gorbachev’s popularity was as high among Republicans (73%) as among Democrats (72%). Slightly more Republicans (47%) believe that the Cold War might be coming to an end as compared to Democrats (44%).

Margin of Error

The Times Orange County Poll of 600 adult residents was conducted Jan. 13-17 by Mark Baldassare & Associates of Irvine. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4%.

Top Republican pollster Richard B. Wirthlin, who conducted President Reagan’s public opinion research, said: “The findings of the Times poll reflect changes in the political and demographic makeup of Orange County. But more important, they are consistent with what I find nationally, which is a tremendous change in attitude.

“The Cold War generated a lot of worry and concern about the Soviet threat. It is dramatically lower than during any time in the past 20 years. During the Cold War period, the feeling that the Soviet threat was the most important problem facing the United States ranged between 25% and 50%. In my poll, which we’ve been conducing for 15 years, it is at an all-time low of 8%.”

A majority of Republicans (53%) said they oppose a ban on X-rated movies in their local community video store, favor teaching about condoms (76%) and oppose a new California law that requires schools to teach that abstinence is the only acceptable form of premarital birth control (55%).

“A lot of people here are liberal on top of their conservative foundation,” observed one of those polled, Irvine artist-designer Tom Kellog, a Republican who opposes a ban on abortions or X-rated videos.

In fact, Republican pollsters previously have documented a libertarian streak in conservative Republican ideology. They see this insistence on individual rights as a natural adjunct to the conservative belief in limited government intervention in all social spheres.

“The tendency has been for hard-core Republicans to look at things in a libertarian manner,” GOP consultant Spencer said.

“The perception of the Republican voters of Orange County has always been too simplistic. As the Times polling data shows, they are much more broad-minded in some areas then people give them credit.”

For instance, despite yearlong hearings conducted by Atty. Gen. Edwin Meese’s commission on the possible adverse social effects of pornography, 47% of those Orange County residents who labeled themselves conservatives oppose a ban on the rental of “adult X-rated movies” in their community, while 43% favor such a ban. And 50% of conservatives oppose the new state law requiring teaching abstinence as the only acceptable form of birth control. Conservatives are evenly split on the abortion issue, but 78% “favor educating adolescents in public schools about the use of condoms as a means of controlling the spread of AIDS.”

Fundamentalists Divided

The poll indicates that it would be simplistic to think of the religious fundamentalist community as being united on social issues. One-third of those interviewed identified themselves as religious fundamentalists, meaning “someone who takes the Bible literally on issues such as the creation of life.”

But in this group, 44% oppose the requirement on teaching abstinence and 44% approve, and 73% favor education about condoms in connection with AIDS. And 47% of the fundamentalists oppose a ban on X-rated video rentals, while 45% favor it.

On the issue of abortion, whereas non-fundamentalists strongly “oppose having the Supreme Court outlaw abortions except in the case of a threat to the mother’s life,” a majority of fundamentalists (52%) favor such a ban, while 41% of this group oppose such a prohibition.

‘Civil Liberties Orientation’

“Orange County residents have traditionally shown a civil liberties orientation about personal life-style issues,” said Baldassare, who is a UC Irvine professor. “But at the point at which civil liberty conflicts with a strong law and order (issue), as with the issue of drugs, their attitude swings toward stronger authority.”

A strong law-and-order stance on drugs coincides with residents’ belief that drugs are the biggest problem facing young people, although twice as many believe that alcohol abuse is a bigger problem than drugs for adults. The federal government’s so-called “zero-tolerance policy” of seizing boats and cars in which a small amount of marijuana is found was favored by 51%, with 42% opposed.

Gorbachev’s 70% favorable rating was accompanied by a low 15% unfavorable, even lower than Reagan’s at 18%. Bush had a 67% favorable rating, with 17% unfavorable. Reagan topped Gorbachev with 76% favorable and British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher won the sweepstakes with 79% favorable and 11% unfavorable.

Yitzhak Shamir, the Israeli prime minister, is less well known to Orange County residents, many of whom declined to state a view of him. Of those who did, 21% had a favorable impression and 35% unfavorable.

Republican candidates in each of the last three presidential elections have carried Orange County by the largest margin of any county nationwide. In 1980, Reagan’s margin over Jimmy Carter in the county was 353,000 votes. It rose to 428,000 over Walter F. Mondale in 1984. Bush defeated Michael S. Dukakis by 314,000 votes in the last election.

The Times Orange County Poll was conducted by Mark Baldassare & Associates of Irvine, with field work by Discovery Research Group.

The survey of 600 adult residents was conducted January 13-17 on weekend days and weekday nights, using a random sample of listed and unlisted telephone numbers. The margin of error due to chance variations in the sample is 4%.

Respondents were asked if they voted in the November election and which party they were registered with. They were also asked to describe themselves as Conservatives, Moderates or Liberals.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE TIMES ORANGE COUNTY POLL

World Leaders

“Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these world leaders?” Thatcher: 79% Reagan: 76% Gorbachev: 70% Bush: 67% Shamir: 21%

Favorable Unfavorable Don’t Know Margaret Thatcher 79% 11% 10% Ronald Reagan 76 18 6 Mikhail Gorbachev 70 15 15 George Bush 67 17 6 Yitzhak Shamir 21 35 44

Reps-Republicans; Dems-Democrats; Cons-Conservatives; Mods-Moderates; Libs-Liberals; U.S. Military A majority of all groups, except Liberals, prefer U.S. military presence overseas to remain the same. Across all groups, including Conservatives, there is more support for a decrease in military presence than for an increase.

“What is your view of the U.S. military presence overseas--should it be increased, or decreased or remain the same as it is today?”

Total Reps Dems Cons Mods Libs Increased 12% 13% 6% 15% 9% 10% Decreased 28 25 37 23 25 44 Same 53 57 52 58 59 40 Don’t know 7 5 5 4 7 6

The Cold War

“Do you think the Cold War conflict between the Soviet Union and the United States is coming to an end or not?”

Total Reps Dems Cons Mods Libs Yes 45% 47% 44% 41% 42% 56% No 44 45 41 47 45 35 Don’t know 11 8 15 12 13 9

Pornography

Across all groups, opposition exceeds support for a ban on X-rated videos.

“Do you favor or oppose a ban on the rental of adult X-rated movies in home video stores in your community?”

Total Reps Dems Cons Mods Libs Favor 35% 39% 34% 43% 32% 26% Oppose 56 53 57 47 61 64 Don’t know 9 8 9 10 7 10

Abortion

Except for Conservatives, Orange Countians oppose having the Supreme Court outlaw abortions. Conservatives are split on the issue.

“Do you favor or oppose having the Supreme Court outlaw abortions except in the case of a threat to the mother’s life?”

Total Reps Dems Cons Mods Libs Favor 34% 38% 33% 47% 27% 17% Oppose 60 55 61 48 65 75 Don’t know 6 7 6 5 8 8

AIDS and Condoms

Four of five Orange Countians favor public school education of the use of condoms.

“Do you favor or oppose educating adolescents in public schools about the use of condoms as a means of controlling the spread of AIDS?”

Total Reps Dems Cons Mods Libs Favor 82% 79% 90% 78% 80% 95% Oppose 14 17 8 18 15 4 Don’t know 4 4 2 4 5 1

Note: Some percentages may not equal 100% because of rounding.

Source: Times Orange County Poll