GATT Sees Record World Trade in 1989
World trade grew at its fastest rate in four years in 1988 and looks set for record growth this year, the GATT trade body said today.
Merchandise trade rose 8.5% last year, equaling the record registered in the boom year of 1984 and surpassing the most optimistic forecasts, the secretariat of the 96-nation General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade said. The rate, which compares with a 5.5% increase in 1987, is the fourth consecutive year of accelerating trade growth, GATT said in a preliminary report.
It forecast another record year of growth in 1989, provided that governments keep world markets open and control a modest spurt of inflation in some industrialized states, including the United States, Britain, France and West Germany.
“The current expansionist phase in the world economy has become more vigorous than the previous one. The volume of world merchandise trade is up nearly 40% and world output up 25% from their 1982 recession levels,” the report said.
The value of world merchandise trade in 1988 was estimated at $2.84 trillion, a 14% increase over the 1987 figure, the report said.
Greater trade volume accounted for most of the rise, but inflation and a further moderate depreciation of the dollar exchange rate also contributed, the report said.
Predictions for 1989 were that inflation in consumer prices in advanced countries could reach 4%, “with some risks on the up-side.”
Trade growth in 1988 was spread over a wide range of countries, in particular industrialized nations and leading Third World traders. This contrasted with the 1984 trade boom, which was triggered largely by U.S. import demand.
West Germany and the United States were virtually level at the top of the table of the world’s leading exporters, with shares of 11.4% and 11.3% respectively of 1988 world exports. Japan followed with 9.3%, ahead of France’s 5.9% and Britain at 5.1%.
The United States remained by far the world’s biggest importer, with a share of 15.6%, followed by West Germany, 8.4%, Britain, 6.4%, Japan, 6.3%, and France, 5.9%.
