International : Despite rising prices, 6.6 million visitors are due in Europe in ’89.

Although prices continue to rise overseas, American tourists, it appears, will be off and running in record numbers again in 1989.

In an annual Times Travel survey, Europe emerges as the front-runner, with expectations for the busiest year in the Continent’s history.

Last year 6.5 million Americans visited Europe, tying an

all-time high set in 1985 before tourism declined abruptly following the hijacking of a U.S. airliner, the Achille Lauro incident and massacres at airports in Italy and Austria.

Even the recent explosion of a Pan Am jet, in which 270 persons lost their lives in Scotland, has had little affect on airline bookings. According to Don Ford, who heads the 23-nation European Travel Commission, Europe has set its sights on 6.6 million visitors during ’89.

Ford describes reservations from Southern California as “excellent.” At the same time he cautions Americans to make advance purchases of vacation packages--rail travel, hotels and other travel-related expenditures--in an effort to avoid the low dollar exchange in Europe.

Voit Gilmore, president of the American Society of Travel Agents, forecasts a “bullish year” for the U.S. travel industry. Director of the U.S. Travel & Tourism Administration under former President John F. Kennedy, Gilmore looks for Western Europe to remain the top destination of American travelers. At the same time he foresees a growing interest in Eastern Europe and the Pacific Basin: “All signals are good for travel in 1989.”

An increase in travel among all age groups is forecast by Tommaso Zanzotto, president of Travel Services for American Express, whose company is offering a “totally unrestricted” guarantee of prices, even in the event of European currency fluctuations. In 1988 sales by American Express leaped ahead 20%. A similar increase is anticipated this year.

Eric Friedheim, publisher of Travel Agent magazine, describes as “positive” the outlook for travel to Europe, basing his forecast on new airline promotional fares and “tour operators struggling to hold the line on prices.”

Recalling Pan Am’s crash in Scotland, Martin B. Deutsch, publisher of OAG Magazines, described the American traveler as becoming “inured” to such crises. “Grotesque as this bombing was, I don’t feel it will result in any major impact on travel.” Deutsch believes only a series of such events would deter the expected stampede to Europe.

His feelings are shared by Alan Fredericks, editor-in-chief of the bible of the industry, Travel Weekly. Fears of political turmoil or a weakening dollar could inhibit travelers, Fredericks said. Otherwise, he forecasts “a strong international year in travel, with a good deal of momentum under way in Europe, Asia and the Pacific in particular” (although at least one major tour operator disagrees on the Pacific issue).

Industry leaders made these other observations:

--Travel to Hawaii by mainlanders has softened.

--China is an enigma, with pros and cons over its popularity as a “single” destination.

--The U.S.S.R. and Eastern Europe are experiencing record bookings.

--After several lean years, bookings to Egypt are surprisingly high.

--Caribbean countries look to a modest increase in tourism.

--Records are being shattered by the cruise industry.

--The South Pacific will outperform the Far East in growth during ’89 (with Australia and New Zealand on top of the heap).

--Hong Kong remains the hottest spot in the Orient.

--Mexico is anticipating a 10% to 15% increase in tourism this year. (Carlos Hempe, regional director of the Mexican Government Tourism Office in Beverly Hills, predicts his country’s tourist industry will double within 10 years.)

--France will welcome record numbers of visitors due to its bicentennial observance of the French Revolution.

--Canada is looking forward to a 10% rise in tourism.

--After a disastrous 1988, Israel will recover. (Ari Sommer, director of the Israel Government Tourist Office in Los Angeles, is forecasting a 12% increase from the West Coast.)

An unprecedented interest in Russia and Eastern Europe is credited to Mikhail S. Gorbachev, whose reforms and winning personality appear responsible for record bookings to the Soviet Union.

Paul Albrecht of Globus-Gateway tells how “space to the U.S.S.R. is limited only due to the number of hotels that are available.” With bookings made up to a year in advance, Albrecht said, “We’re having to pamper Intourist (the official Soviet tour agency) for space.”

No Room at Inn

James Murphy of Brendan Tours describes travel to the Soviet Union as “enormous.” Murphy expects tours to the U.S.S.R. to be sold out by the end of April.

As a result, an industry spokesperson said, the Soviets are hiking prices. Still, costs in some cases are surprisingly low. Murphy is selling a 15-day tour (Moscow, Yalta, Kiev, Leningrad) for $3,187, including round-trip air from Los Angeles, hotels, meals, theater performances and sightseeing. Everything but a peck on the cheek from Gorbachev himself.

“The impact of the Soviet Union is nothing short of amazing,” said Lars Eric Lindblad, whose company, Lindblad Travel, is scheduling a series of cruises in the U.S.S.R. Sharing Lindblad’s views, Ron Harris of Hemphill Harris Travel Corp. sums up the American traveler’s interest in Russia: “Unbelievable.”

Eastern Europe is leaping ahead for at least two reasons: Americans feel safe from terrorists and prices are well below those of Western Europe.

Susan Kaplan, president of the Southern California chapter of ASTA, points to Hungary and Yugoslavia as top contenders for the U.S. travel dollar.

Prepaid Tour Growth

“It’s simple,” she says. “They aren’t gouging the tourist,” which she says is occurring in certain Western European countries. “If you go on a non-package tour to England, Germany, Italy or France, you might end up paying $15 to $18 for a simple continental breakfast. These countries are taking advantage of Europe’s popularity, and they’re going to gouge until they have empty rooms.”

As a result, Kaplan says, more Americans are signing up for prepaid group tours because “even first-class hotels (not deluxe) are costing up to $200 a night, so Americans are looking for different avenues.”

Those avenues lead to package tours with the knowledge that the bills are prepaid. Although Kaplan complains that England is expensive, a representative of the British Travel Assn. argues to the contrary. While major hotels in London may be costly, he said, smaller hotels are reasonable and travel elsewhere in the U.K. remains affordable.

In keeping with Kaplan’s suggestion for prepaid tours, American Express is scheduling a 15-day swing through England, France, Switzerland, Austria, Germany and Holland (sightseeing, hotels, a travel insurance policy and several evening meals) for $1,065, which breaks down to $71 a day.

At the same time, American Express is guaranteeing its prices against currency fluctuations that otherwise could drive tour costs up. American Express anticipates a whopping 15% to 20% increase in its bookings over ’88 travel figures.

Low-Price Packages

One of Cosmos’ low-price packages, an eight-day tour from Athens to Delphi, Patras, Olympia, Mycenae and Corinth--with a return to Athens--sells for a thrifty $217--sightseeing, hotels, breakfasts and dinners included. The tour (the Greek Odyssey) figures out to about $27 a day.

In the off-season, Cosmos is conducting $35-a-day tours of Spain that include a room with private bath and two meals. The price is hiked to $50 during the peak season.

Albrecht of Globus-Gateway tells of a 19-day grand tour of England, Belgium, Holland, Germany, Austria, Italy, Switzerland and France by air-conditioned motor coach (including a Rhine cruise) that breaks down to $48.50 a day. Traveling first-class on an identical tour runs the cost up to about $60 a day off-season and $71.50 during peak months.

In short, Americans are disregarding scare stories concerning high prices and are opting instead to buy prepaid packages or else traveling independently, using small inns and bed-and-breakfasts as opposed to expensive hotels in the major cities.

Travel Weekly’s Fredericks points out that Americans are becoming “sophisticated” about travel and are “learning to live the way the Europeans live.” This means more humble accommodations and often a little daring on the part of the U.S. traveler who, not many years ago, sensed an uneasiness about “winging it” overseas.

‘Amazing Growth Market’

The Times Travel Section survey reveals continued growth in the South Pacific, Mexico and Canada, with an anticipated increase in the Caribbean due to the burgeoning cruise market.

ASTA’s Kaplan sees cruising as an “amazing growth market.” At the same time, Kaplan urges U.S. travelers to “awaken to the advantages of South America,” where a “fabulous hotel room in Rio costs a little over $100 a day.”

South America remains the neglected continent, she said, due primarily to a lack of promotional skills. One of South America’s biggest pluses, besides its scenery, adventure and excitement, said Kaplan, is its people. “They like Americans. In South America you feel wanted.”

New growth continues in the South Pacific, especially to Australia and New Zealand, which provides the safety and security Americans are looking for--huge pluses at a time when the fear of terrorism inhibits travelers everywhere.

Jerry Picolla of the Pacific Travel Assn. describes Pacific Rim countries as “booming,” and tells how the South Pacific is outperforming the Far East in percentage growth.

Traffic to Hawaii, on the other hand, is “soft,” Picolla said, with tourists from Japan taking up the slack. Other industry leaders say that Hawaii threatens to out-price itself among mainlanders.

A New Generation

Still, for every American who abandons Hawaii, two Japanese step into the picture. “With the yen strong and the dollar weak,” Picolla said, “the Japanese are happy to pay the prices.” Japan, he said, is spawning a new generation of travelers.

“The growth of the outbound Japanese tourist market is simply phenomenal,” Picolla said. A 15% increase among Japanese tourists is forecast for ‘89, which would drive the figure close to the 10-million mark. Their destinations besides Hawaii: Asia, Europe and the South Pacific.

Hong Kong and Singapore are overrun with travelers; in Bali it is nearly impossible to obtain a hotel room, and in Thailand, Americans are competing with Japanese and Australians for accommodations.

Tyler Tanaka of Japan & Orient Tours names Hong Kong as the “hottest spot” in the Orient and says even Japan is experiencing new traffic (although it remains shockingly expensive).

Ed Hogan, president of Pleasant Hawaiian Holidays, is concerned about the softening of the Hawaii travel market, even though his own bookings are rising.

Europe, he said, drained away travelers from the Hawaii market last year. As a result, Hogan has launched a multimillion-dollar campaign to lure travelers back to Hawaii.

Shorter Vacations

Mainlanders, it appears, are taking shorter and more frequent vacations. Hogan answers this with a $319 Hawaii package that includes the round-trip jet hop, a lei greeting and a hotel for two nights. Another package prices out to $379 for one week.

In a sense--even with the weakened dollar--it is a buyer’s year. The European Travel Commission is conducting a lively campaign aimed at the American consumer, pointing to attractive packages as a major lure.

In Van Nuys, Brendan Tours alone was responsible for sending more than 10,000 Americans to Ireland last year. A 14-day tour of the Emerald Isle is pegged at $1,048 in the off-season, and a grand tour of the Continent (16 days) figures out to about $74 daily.

Brendan’s Murphy said: “The Irish don’t have to have a ‘Be Nice to Visitors Week.’ By nature they are friendly people. Besides, almost every Irishman has a relative living in America.”

In Europe, Americans opposed to packaged tours are hitting the B&B; circuit and using public transportation more frequently. With a number of tour operators guaranteeing their prices even in the face of rising costs, U.S. travelers are responding en masse.

Said one tour operator: “Ask your travel agent to quote prices that won’t bruise you. Argue a little.”