Bush on a Polish Tightrope

President Bush, who leaves for Poland on Sunday, will arrive at a time of great hope and great frustration: great hope for Poland’s tantalizing new promise of democracy, great frustration because both Poles and Americans think he can make their dreams come true. He can’t.

Poland faces twin crises: one economic, the other political. Poland owes $39 billion to foreign creditors, and its economy is further weakened by serious structural flaws. The Polish political system is struggling to shed its authoritarian cast and find a way to accommodate the new and awkward alliance between the Communist Party and the labor union Solidarity. Both situations are in flux.

No matter who is in charge, Poland faces severe austerity in the years ahead. And neither Solidarity nor the Communist Party wants to prescribe that bitter medicine. The Polish people hope that Bush will bring a miracle cure for their ills, preferably in the form of cold cash or debt forgiveness. He cannot and should not. Instead, he should go ahead with his plan to offer a moderate, sensible package of debt rescheduling and trade incentives, including most-favored-nation status.

On the political front, Bush will have to tread carefully, deferring both to the ruling party and Solidarity. Although American values and sympathies necessarily side with the trade union, Solidarity is not yet willing or able to take over the government completely. Its best bet is to keep cooperating with the current government, allowing the old order to take the blame for the coming austerity. Bush should not try to interfere in relations between Solidarity and the Communist Party or seem to favor one side at the expense of the other. Poland’s best hope lies in their cooperation; Bush should simply bestow an American blessing on the still-fragile partnership.

Finally, the President should not give in to the temptation to take advantage of Poland’s new stirrings of democracy, either by gloating over the decline in communism or by grandly welcoming Poland to the West. Neither Poland’s conservatives nor the Soviets are ready for political grandstanding, as Gorbachev openly warned this week. Stability in Europe, ironically, now rests on the stability of the Warsaw Pact.

Fortunately, the Bush Administration seems to understand these dangers and is actively seeking to lower public expectations for the visit, especially in Poland. Unfortunately, sweet assurances offer poor comfort to the hungry and the anxious.