Confusion Reigns in Japanese Politics as Ruling Party Seeks Successor to Uno

Japanese politics were plunged into confusion Monday as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party began a desperate search for a suitable successor to Prime Minister Sosuke Uno, who announced that he will resign to take responsibility for his party’s devastating losses in Sunday’s election for the upper house of Parliament.

Indications are that the crisis in leadership that has plagued the conservative party for the last year will continue for some time, resulting in serious political instability and possibly harming Japan’s ability to cope with international trade disputes and shoulder its foreign policy obligations.

As final results of the election came in Monday evening--showing the Liberal Democrats with only 36 seats compared to 90 for the opposition, including 46 for the ascendant Japan Socialist Party--it was painfully apparent that the ruling party has no immediate candidates for the important task of succeeding Uno and rebuilding the party.

Politicians Stunned

Although it had been widely predicted that the Liberal Democrats would lose their majority in the upper house, where half the seats were at issue in Sunday’s election, the extent of the setback exceeded the party’s most pessimistic scenario and stunned veteran politicians.

Uno himself had been a compromise nominee for the post of prime minister, which he assumed June 2 after more than a month of internal party wrangling over a replacement for Noboru Takeshita. The latter was forced to resign because of his role in the Recruit Corp. influence-peddling scandal.

Attention was focused Monday on whether officials will abandon a self-imposed ban on choosing any leader linked to the Recruit scandal, which touched nearly everyone in the upper echelon of the party after disclosures of unethical stock payoffs and questionable political donations began last July.

Uno, a former foreign minister, was one of the few party stalwarts who did not have ties to Recruit. He was picked only after the leading candidate to succeed Takeshita, Masayoshi Ito, demanded a drastic purge of the party leadership as a condition for becoming prime minister.

Money-for-Sex Scandal

Uno was quickly embroiled in a money-for-sex scandal that undoubtedly contributed to Sunday’s defeat, along with public rancor over a new consumption tax and agricultural import liberalization.

“At this time, we need to chose a real prime minister and party leader, not someone who is going to be temporary relief,” said Kiichi Miyazawa, a former finance minister. “That should be the basis for starting over again. It should be someone who speaks clearly.”

Miyazawa was at one time a leading candidate to succeed Takeshita before he resigned in disgrace over his own role in the Recruit scandal last December. The ruling party announced Monday that it is forming an election committee to oversee election of a new party president, who would be expected to become prime minister by virtue of the Liberal Democrats’ solid majority in the lower house.

However, a party primary followed by a parliamentary caucus election--requiring three to four weeks of preparation--would be a clumsy mechanism to respond to the urgent leadership crisis, political analysts said.

Extraordinary Session

The newly elected upper house, now controlled by the opposition, must be convened for an extraordinary session within 30 days. The ruling party’s succession troubles have been complicated by strident opposition demands that the lower house be dissolved for yet another electoral test of confidence in the conservative regime that has ruled Japan since 1955.

The alternative to a formal election by the party--or hand-picking a successor in a back room, as both Uno and Takeshita were chosen--would be an election by the full membership of both houses of Parliament. With the opposition majority in the upper chamber, however, Takako Doi, chairwoman of the Socialist Party, stands a fair chance of gaining the symbolic endorsement of an opposition coalition in a challenge that could hasten dissolution of the lower house.

In any event, there are no prominent Liberal Democratic candidates for prime minister immediately in sight.

Two Unattractive Choices

If the Liberal Democrats stop short of rehabilitating their core of machine politicians--all tainted by Recruit but wielding formidable power in the ruling party’s factional structure--they will have to turn to a relatively inexperienced younger generation or draft one of their old-guard elders. Neither prospect appears acceptable in light of the rigid protocol and bitter rivalries that characterize the party.

Yet, some of the ruling party’s most loyal supporters are expressing irritation and impatience after seeing Sunday’s election results.

“We got a solid taste of how strong the people’s mistrust of the Liberal Democatic Party really was,” Rokuro Ishikawa, chairman of the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, told a news conference. “The party must make a fresh start after choosing a new leader . . . with true capabilities.”

Ironically, financial markets reacted coolly to the news of Sunday’s humiliating defeat for the pro-business Liberal Democrats.

The Japanese currency dipped in early trading but ultimately rose in value against the dollar in Tokyo on Monday, closing at 141.95, up 0.20 yen from Friday’s close. At the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei Stock Index gained 193.9 points to finish the day at 34,090.33.

It was not clear whether traders had already discounted negative results in the upper house election, saw the repudiation of the Liberal Democrats as a low-tide mark to be followed by increased political stability or were merely uninterested.

In an editorial based on early returns Monday, the newspaper Asahi scolded the ruling party, saying: “The severe judgment the public passed on the LDP was only to be expected. During the 30-odd years of its virtual single-party rule, the party had grown arrogant. . . .”