THE TIMES POLL : Van de Kamp, Wilson Even in Governor Race

Roughly a year before Californians choose their next governor, Republican Sen. Pete Wilson and Democratic state Atty. Gen. John K. Van de Kamp are running even, with neither gubernatorial candidate holding an advantage on the issues voters say concern them most, The Times Poll has found.

A third candidate, former San Francisco Mayor Dianne Feinstein, is trailing Van de Kamp in early jockeying for the Democratic nomination. And she lags far behind Wilson in a simulated November runoff.

The poll found registered voters at this preliminary stage of the campaign to be equally dividing their support between Van de Kamp and Wilson (34% each), with 32% holding no opinion. In a Feinstein-Wilson contest, the early results favor Wilson, 44% to 30%, with 26% not sure.

Looking toward the primary election next June, Democratic voters now tentatively support Van de Kamp over Feinstein for their party’s nomination by 37% to 25%, with 38% not sure. Wilson so far has no major opposition for the GOP nomination.

“Many voters have not yet seriously thought about any of these candidates--let alone committed to one--so the contests will remain highly volatile for some time to come,” Times Poll Director I.A. Lewis noted.

The Times Poll interviewed 1,393 California adults--1,056 of them registered voters--by telephone from Oct. 7 to 10.

The margin of error for a survey of this size is three percentage points in either direction. The error margin for just the registered voters is four points. Among the voters interviewed, 493 were Democrats and 428 were Republicans, with each group having an error margin of five points.

One slight early advantage Feinstein enjoys over Van de Kamp is that she has a higher proportion of strongly committed supporters, the survey showed. Strong commitments can mean fewer defections along the campaign trail and a better turnout on Election Day.

But there is a “gender gap” in the gubernatorial contest. The survey found that in the Van de Kamp-Feinstein race, the attorney general is running 16 points better among men than among women. Looked at another way, 54% of Van de Kamp’s total support comes from men; conversely, 56% of Feinstein’s support is from women.

Similarly, in a Wilson-Feinstein match-up, the senator runs 14 points better among men than among women.

Since neither Wilson nor Van de Kamp is especially charismatic in the style of Govs. Ronald Reagan or Jerry Brown, issues could play a bigger-than-usual role in determining the next governor.

“Crime and drugs” ranks atop the voters’ list of most important issues. And the survey showed that Democratic voters think that Van de Kamp would be a better crime-fighter than Feinstein. But in a match-up with Wilson among all registered voters, Van de Kamp enjoys no advantage on this issue. The two candidates run virtually even among people whose biggest concern is crime and drugs.

Likewise, people especially worried about education, which ranks second on the voters’ list of most important issues, are almost equally divided between Van de Kamp and Wilson. The two also split votes relatively evenly among people particularly concerned about the environment and abortion.

Van de Kamp runs better than Wilson among people worried about health care, a traditionally Democratic issue. But Wilson fares better among voters concerned about transportation and government ethics.

Against Feinstein, Van de Kamp also runs especially well among Democrats whose principal concerns are automobile insurance and transportation.

Two more reasons given by Van de Kamp’s supporters for backing him over Feinstein are his “experience” and “political philosophy.”

Van de Kamp has held statewide office as attorney general for nearly seven years and was the Los Angeles city attorney before that. Since beginning to run for governor, he has been highly visible, expounding on such issues as crime, drugs, automobile insurance, the environment, legislative ethics and abortion.

Feinstein served nearly a decade as San Francisco mayor, but this is her first bid for statewide office. And she has not been as aggressive a campaigner as Van de Kamp.

Van de Kamp’s main vehicle on the campaign trail has been his sponsorship of three ballot initiatives--one on crime and drugs, another on legislative ethics and a third on environmental preservation. This is an unprecedented number of initiative sponsorships for a political candidate, and Van de Kamp may be running the risk of a voter backlash, the survey indicated.

A majority of voters--Democrats and Republicans alike--say too many propositions have been creeping onto California’s ballots. But the voters are about equally divided in blaming the “powerful interests (trying) to get around state government” or themselves for “using propositions to force needed reforms.”

The voters do endorse, by better than 2 to 1, one idea being pushed by Van de Kamp in an initiative: A 12-year limit on the amount of time state officials are allowed to spend in any single office. This proposal has angered many of Van de Kamp’s fellow Democratic officeholders, especially legislators.

Another controversial ballot initiative--this one being pushed by Wilson--is designed to speed up criminal trials and ease the burdens of victims. Van de Kamp opposes the measure, contending it would unintentionally weaken privacy laws that protect abortion rights; he is offering his own alternative.

But voters interviewed by The Times support the Wilson-backed proposal 3 to 1, apparently feeling its “speedy trial” and “victims’ rights” features outweigh any threats to abortion.

Looking at the various gubernatorial match-ups by geographical region, Southern California Democrats are supporting Van de Kamp over Feinstein 2 to 1. But the two are running about evenly in Northern California.

Among all voters, Wilson and Van de Kamp are running relatively evenly throughout the state. Wilson has a big lead on Feinstein in Southern California, trails her in the Bay Area and runs even in the rest of the north.

The voters have highly favorable impressions of both Wilson and Van de Kamp. Feinstein is less well known, except in the Bay Area, and her impression rating is not as high as the other two candidates.

The Times survey also found that:

* Gov. George Deukmejian’s job rating has slipped dramatically in the last year from 59% approval last October to 43% in the latest poll. Currently, 23% disapprove of Deukmejian’s job performance and 34% say they don’t know enough about him to say, even though he has been in office for nearly seven years. Men approve of the lame-duck governor much more than women do.

* Voters who have an opinion on the subject believe, by 3 to 1, that California should move up its presidential primary from June to March to give the state more clout in the presidential nominating process. But nearly half the voters have no opinion. The state Senate last month blocked such legislation.

* Very few voters are paying attention to the races for lesser state offices, such as lieutenant governor, treasurer and attorney general.

The most striking example is the campaign for the Republican nomination for lieutenant governor between two Orange County state senators, Marian Bergeson of Newport Beach and John Seymour of Anaheim. Ninety percent of the GOP voters have no opinion about the contest. The rest are split about equally between the two contenders.

In a mythical runoff with Democratic incumbent Leo T. McCarthy, neither potential GOP nominee comes close. But half the voters, again, have no opinion.

In the Republican race for the treasurer nomination, incumbent Tom Hayes is leading former U.S. Treasurer Angela (Bay) Buchanan by roughly 2 to 1. But 7 in 10 GOP voters have no opinion. The survey found both candidates with a slight lead over the expected Democratic nominee, Kathleen Brown, who has held local office in Los Angeles and is the sister of former Gov. Edmund G. Brown Jr. But a majority of voters have no opinion.

Similarly, Los Angeles Dist. Atty. Ira Reiner has a 2 to 1 lead over San Francisco Dist. Atty. Arlo Smith in the contest for the Democratic nomination for attorney general. But well over half the Democratic rank and file has no opinion. The likely Republican nominee, former U.S. Rep. Dan Lungren of Long Beach, trails Reiner but runs slightly ahead of Smith.

VOTER PREFERENCES If the general election for governor were being held today, for whom would you vote? (Among registered voters.)

CANDIDATES: Van de Kamp vs. Wilson PERCENT State Atty. Gen. John Van de Kamp 34% U.S. Sen. Pete Wilson 34% Someone else 1% No opinion 31% CANDIDATES: Feinstein vs. Wilson PERCENT Former San Francisco Mayor Dianne Feinstein 30% U.S. Sen. Pete Wilson 44% Someone else 1% No opinion 25%

If the Democratic primary election were being held today, for whom would you vote? (Among registered Democrats.) GOVERNOR’S RACE

CANDIDATES: Feinstein vs. Van de Kamp PERCENT Former San Francisco Mayor Dianne Feinstein 25% State Atty. Gen. John Van de Kamp 37% Someone else 1% No opinion 37%

ATTORNEY GENERAL’S RACE

CANDIDATES: Reiner vs. Smith PERCENT L.A. County Dist. Atty. Ira Reiner 28% San Francisco Dist. Atty. Arlo Smith 14% Someone else 2% No opinion 56%

If the Republican primary election were being held today, for whom would you vote? (Among registered Republicans.) LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR’S RACE

CANDIDATES: Bergeson vs. Seymour PERCENT State Sen. Marian Bergeson 4% State Sen. John Seymour 6% No opinion 90%

TREASURER’S RACE

CANDIDATES: Buchanan vs. Hayes PERCENT Former U.S. Treasurer Angela ‘Bay’ Buchanan 9% State Treasurer Tom Hayes 20% Someone else 1% No opinion 70%

SOURCE: The Los Angeles Times Poll