The Lessons of San Francisco

Earthquakes happen when you least expect them. In the San Francisco Bay Area Tuesday evening, the world went topsy-turvy. Without warning, and in just 15 seconds, a region of 4.5 million people was shaken violently and then left stunned and bewildered. Even for veteran Californians, there is no terror quite like it.

But the Earth has been through several billions of years of grinding and scraping and is not about to rest for anything, much less a baseball game. Southern Californians grieve for the deaths, injuries and damage suffered by our Northern California neighbors. There are ways that we can help (see below). We also can use the event to advantage, to do everything we can to prepare for such a disaster of our own.

No one knows when the next one will come in Southern California, but it will. And when the quake comes, it could well be the feared big one, a shaker of about 8.0 magnitude, or 10 times as bad as Tuesday evening’s Bay Area rocker. Imagine: 10 times as bad, or 100 times as severe as the Whittier quake of two years ago. Picture the pancaked freeway and the squashed buildings of the Marina District and multiply by 10. Imagine freeway bridges collapsed throughout Southern California. Thousands dead. Fires raging. Electric power and natural gas out for several days or more. Hundreds of thousands separated from loved ones. Life at a shocked standstill. It could happen today or tomorrow.

Generally, state and local agencies were well-prepared for the San Francisco quake. Lt. Gov. Leo T. McCarthy, who was in charge as acting governor, said the response was betterthan in previous disasters, improved to a great degree by preparation and training instituted after the Sylmar quake, centered in the upper San Fernando Valley, in 1971. There are always glitches and unexpected happenings, of course. McCarthy wondered who would have imagined that the sturdy old Bay Bridge would be the one to suffer such damage? The Nimitz Freeway, scene of the majority of deaths, was built before earthquake standards were adopted in the wake of the Sylmar quake. Highway authorities said conventional methods of reinforcement undertaken in the 1970s could not be readily adapted to the Nimitz to prevent its collapse. An investigation is in order to find out why not, or what could have been done.

Officials remarked on the public-spirited reaction of the people of the Bay Area. After the first seconds of shock and the immediate tendency to panic, they pitched in to help one another, reponded to authorities’ requests and, on occasion, performed heroics. There is enormous human confusion in such a disaster, McCarthy said, but he added, “Some very marvelous things were done by individual citizens that were not in response to any emergency plans.” Motorists helped direct traffic in the absence of traffic signals. Others joined firemen in carrying hoses. Some participated in rescues, heedless of their own safety.

Once again, another area’s adversity offers Southern California an opportunity to examine its own ability to deal with an earthquake disaster. Southern Californians must keep practicing and improving both individual and collective disaster plans.

The Human Element

The human element in an earthquake disaster is critical. There may be no more helpless a feeling than experiencing violent ground movement, but Southern Californians need not feel defenseless even in the event of a giant quake. The one certainty is that individuals and families will be largely on their own for hours or days, until transportation, communications and utilities can be restored. Every family should have an emergency earthquake kit on hand at home, at the office and in the car.

The primary home kit should contain several days’ supplies of food and water, a portable radio with spare batteries, flashlights and batteries, matches, a source of heat such as acamp stove, extra clothing and an emergency supply of cash, since banking facilities probably will be interrupted. There should be a first-aid kit that includes spare medical prescriptions and eyeglasses or contact lenses. Paper plates and plastic utensils help conserve water. A wrench is necessary for shutting off natural gas supplies, but residents first have to know where the cutoff valve is, and how to turn it. The California Highway Patrol says emergency kits should be carried in auto trunks since motorists could be stranded on freeways for hours. Prepackaged kits are available in many surplus outlets and other stores ranging in price from $30 to $210.

Government Preparation

Generally, Southern California authorities believe the region now is well-prepared to deal with an earthquake disaster. Still, the city and state have failed to get substandard buildings up to earthquake codes, often because it is difficult or impossible to get financing, but also because some landlords simply refuse to do it. State legislation to provide assistance was vetoed this year. In Los Angeles, City Councilman Hal Bernson has proposed a special tax assessment and a revenue bond issue to provide reconstruction assistance for the 4,000 buildings in Los Angeles, housing more than 100,000 people, that do not meet standards.

Since the Whittier quake, about 2,800 volunteers in the city of Los Angeles have beentrained to provide assistance in neighborhoods during an earthquake disaster, much like air raid wardens of World War II. This forward-thinking and economical program should be expanded throughout the region and rehearsed over and over again.

Some local officials are disturbed, however, about the problem of regional coordination of services after the initial emergency period of 72 hours or so has ended. The Southern California Earthquake Preparedness Project has discussed a regional joint-powers agreement that would establish such an authority, but no such plan has been developed yet. This should be a priority for local and county governments, with state assistance.

Transportation

Regional transportation leaders claim that the freeway system could sustain a quake like the San Francisco one without a Nimitz Freeway-style disaster. But the network is not built to withstand a giant earthquake. Both Caltrans and the California Highway Patrol say that motorists can expect most of the freeways to be shut down in such an event. Those ramps and bridges that do not collapse will be inspected as soon as possible for structural damage.

Only now is the Los Angeles area moving to double-decked freeways like the Nimitz, with work starting on a deck over part of the Harbor Freeway and proposals for double-decking theVentura Freeway. Caltrans officials say modern freeway structures, such as those being built on the Century route, “are the strongest things we have.” There would be no comparison between these modern structures and the aged Nimitz, but double-decking now is going to be a political issue. Caltrans will have to demonstrate the security of such a system.

Airports are critical in such disasters and local and federal aviation authorities claim they are well prepared. Los Angeles International Airport conducted a drill simulating an 8.0 earthquake in 1987. Plans provide for LAX not only to serve as a transit point, but also as a focus for emergency medical treatment.

Utilities

The Sylmar quake also has been the benchmark for utilities improvements in recent years, but one company executive says there is no way to guard against major damage when vital facilities are located near the epicenter of a giant quake. For telephone companies, a major problem, even when service is available, is lines jammed by people trying to call in to friends and relatives. In San Francisco, incoming calls were blocked to give priority to those trying to call out from the damaged area. Pacific Bell conducts routine earthquake drills.

The major water systems serving Southern California are designed to withstand a major quake, but even if the California Aqueduct were ruptured, the region should have a six-months’ supply on hand, provided there is strict conservation. The major problem would be small distribution systems. In 1971, the disabled San Fernando system was tied into that of Los Angeles.

Electric power systems are probably the most difficult to cushion against earthquake shock, but there also have been improvements since 1971. Natural gas lines also are less likely to break than in the past with the use of modern, more pliable materials. But, as with electricity, gas service could be out days.

To Help Northern California

While now is the time to renew preparations for a possible Southern California disaster, it is also appropriate to consider the hardship that Northern Californians will suffer for weeks and months to come. Many families have lost their homes and possessions. State and federal disaster assistance will be forthcoming, but slowly. The Red Cross is seeking contributions of both money and blood. In this disaster there is only one California. Blood donors can contact local Red Cross chapters and those who want to make monetary contributions can call the Red Cross at 1-800-453-9000.