Business Executives Don’t See Economic Drop-Off Before ’91

The economy, about to enter its eighth year of expansion, is likely to continue growing until at least 1991, according to a poll of leading business executives released today.

Of 53 chief executives who were asked last week when they estimated a recession would start, 61% thought one would start in 1991 or later, 29% estimated the second half of next year and 10% feared a downturn in the first half of 1990, the National Assn. of Manufacturers said.

Despite the rosy outlook, the trade group’s president and chief economist, Jerry Jasinowski, said the economy needs lower interest rates to help stem the dollar’s rise. A higher dollar makes U.S. exports less competitive abroad.

He also said that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan’s goal of eliminating inflation within five years is unrealistic.