NEWS ANALYSIS / QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS : Possible Reunification of Germany Raises Fears in Both East and West

Today, a breached Berlin Wall. Tomorrow, a united Germany?

The startling events in East Germany have raised anew the troubling German question: reunification of the democratic and Communist parts of the state. Here are some questions and answers on the implications:

Question: Does the opening of the Berlin Wall mean reunification is nearer?

Answer: Undoubtedly. No one knows how much sooner it will come because East Germany today is, as a diplomat suggested, like a videotape jammed on fast-forward.

Q: Who is in favor of a reunified Germany?

A: Officially, almost everyone: the United States, West Germany, Great Britain, France and the rest of the European Community. Even the Soviet Union once plumped for reunification--as did Communist East Germany in its early, confident years.

Q: Who is against reunification?

A: Officially, East Germany, as reiterated by its new leaders, Egon Krenz and Hans Modrow, this week. And, to a lesser degree, the Soviet Union--as well as nervous East European nations such as Poland.

Unofficially, most European leaders are deeply concerned about German reunification occurring sooner rather than later.

Q: Why?

A: They fear that an economic powerhouse of 80 million Germans would dominate Europe; they worry that West German concern with reunification would turn its attention away from the European Community; some think that if the Soviet Union allowed a reunited Germany, the price would be neutrality, which would threaten the Western Alliance.

Whatever the case, most astute politicians sense that events in East Germany are quickly changing all the rules by which the postwar power game has been played in Europe.

Q: Are fears about a reunified Germany justified?

A: The West Germans say no. They maintain they are firmly locked into the Western Alliance and have shown that democracy has sunk deep roots over the past 40 years.

Q: Then what is the problem?

A: Although West German leaders are committed to the Atlantic Alliance, reunification would change the structure of NATO and the European Community--as well as the Warsaw Pact--and everyone fears the unknown.

Some commentators and historians even suggest that what they call a “Fourth Reich” will have an irresistible appeal to the deepest, darkest nationalistic emotions of Germans--despite assurances to the contrary by present leaders.

They suggest that a reunited Germany will cast off guilt feelings about World War II and once again behave as a giant wild card in Europe.

Q: How much evidence is there for this?

A: Not much. Polls show that reunification is not a burning issue with Germans. Most West Germans want to remain in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and they see reunifying as a hazy goal--not worth giving up their ties to the West.

Many West Germans also are uneasy about sharing their benefits with a society that has a much lower standard of living.

Q: Are there any other forces working against reunification?

A: Many. The present East German government will resist it tooth and claw. The Soviet Union will have a veto power in the short term. West German leaders themselves are in no hurry to reunify. Rather, they are calling for a measured pace toward this goal, exhorting East Germans to stay where they are and let the future work itself out in an orderly manner.

Q: What about the far-right political forces in West Germany?

A: They are calling for early reunification and argue that Poland should give back the German lands ceded after the war. This could become an inflammatory issue in West German politics--exploited by the far right, with ominous resonances of the early Hitler era.

Q: Would reunification require a formal peace treaty between Germany and the Allies?

A: Probably. Most authorities think that such a treaty should be concluded before any formal, or de jure , reunification.

Q: What about a de facto reunifying--and isn’t West Germany already maintaining close ties with East Germany?

A: Closer than most people realize. West Germany pours an estimated $3 billion to $4 billion yearly into the East German economy, in one form or another, and grants it a back-door entry into the European Community for its exports. Therefore, de facto reunification may come before any official status.

Q: What should policy-makers--particularly those in Washington--be doing to help the situation?

A: Responsible authorities say they should, through economic and political aid, seek to help East Germany move gradually away from its Marxist anchors. They suggest that some form of early connection with the European Community would be beneficial.

Q: Would gradualism be the best way toward a merging of the two Germanys?

A: Most European leaders suggest so. But until recently, they have not given it any hard thought. A West German official said privately that his own intelligence service and the CIA have been wrong on East Germany for the past five years.

They are only now catching up. But chaotic events in Eastern Europe could spin out of control, with unpredictable and possibly catastrophic results.