Long Shots: Making a Lot Out of a Little

Whenever Hollywood Park or Santa Anita race tracks produced a big payoff, the “Champ” would happily show off a $2 win ticket on the nag. It didn’t matter how huge the price--$100, $200, $300 or higher--the Champ would grin and mumble to his friends in the grandstand, “I got it.” Then off he would shuffle, in a sort of side-to-side movement, to cash in his winning ticket.

The Champ, of course, never really won big overall, despite the many long shots he hit. Supposedly, he never lost big either. In fact, he always seemed to have enough money to bet on every race day in and day out. So he wasn’t just another stumblebum with holes on the bottom of his shoes betting his last buck.

Some people believed that the Champ made his money in ways unrelated to the the ponies. When he was younger, the story goes, he fought as a middleweight boxer, never very successfully, but he saved his purses, whatever they were. Although he probably lost more fights than he won, it was said that at the twilight of his career, he had one big fight, banked his money and used the interest to support his betting ventures.

Others maintain that he owned a piece of a popular restaurant in West Los Angeles and used his profit for his betting coups. And then there are those who claim that the Champ had a rich wife whom he married during his boxing career after he rescued her from another boxer who was beating her up. As a reward, the wife supplied him with money for his daily excursions to the track.

In any case, the Champ, who dressed well, always in sport coat and tie, was friendly, loved the horses and was liked by the the racing fans around him. Surrounded by his cronies, he generally watched the races from the grandstand directly in front of the far turn, where the horses would begin their move into the stretch.

The Champ believed that he could tell a good horse by the way it manipulated the turn and how it moved entering the stretch. By observing such tactics, he would mumble, he could spot a long shot the next time the horse raced.

There really is no truth to such a theory because the Champ, if he’s still around, probably still loses, just like everyone else. It is true, however, that the Champ picked a long shot now and then. People believed him, because he always showed everyone his winning ticket.

What a few of his friends finally discovered was that the Champ used to play a simple system.

He bet the highest-priced horse in the race. It didn’t matter how high the odds, it just had to be the longest odds. There was no handicapping involved. In truth, the Racing Form only confused the Champ.

At Hollywood Park during the 1988-89 season, the Champ had such winners as Corvettin, $44.20; Startling, $172.80; Family Flair, $361.80; Pasquinade, $45.20; By No Means, $47.80, and Yankee Hostess, $45.80.

Santa Anita’s big winners during 1989 were Raposa, $133; Please Rem It, $40.40; Clever Speech, $59.80; Codex’s Bride, $115.80; Black Duzy, $66.80; Alfitz, $34.40; Belle Poitrine, $49.80; Hail Commander, $36.80; Dezibelle, $109; Pricey Mac, $107.40; Kamp Out, $47.80, and Easy Fashion, $38.

The biggest return of the year turned up at Hollywood Park on June 29, 1989, in the third race, when Family Flair raced to victory for a huge payoff of $361.80. It was a good race for the 3-year-old filly, which lagged far back early in the running of the 1 1/16-mile claimer.

Entering the stretch, Family Flair was on the outside of five horses about 2 1/2 lengths behind the leader. The horse gained ground, despite running wide, continued to close and took the lead in the final sixteenth. Opening his lead with every stride, Family Flair, at the wire, won by 1 3/4 lengths.

It was easy to choose Family Flair. The odds before the race looked like this:

Golden Floriana, $2.80

J. D.’s Love, $3.10

Foxy Alice, $3.20

Frenchy’s Chick, $3.80

Saratoga Queen, $5.20

Mirabelle Queen, $14.70

Madame Avie, $85.90

Family Flair, $179.90

There was no doubt that Family Flair was the horse to bet.

Another big price was recorded at Santa Anita on April 20, 1989, when Raposa, in a 1 1/16-mile claimer for fillies and mares, jumped out in front at the start from the No. 1 post position. The horse then dropped back to third at the three-quarter mark and made its move while on the inner rail to fight for the lead in the stretch.

At the wire, Raposa was in front by a neck over Sparkle Bright, which had drifted out slightly in the last sixteenth.

Odds for the horses:

Bitatron, $2.60

Engaging Beau, $5.10

Frandy, $5.40

Sparkle Bright, $5.50

Moment in Paradise, $5.90

Hanevir, $6.00

Beggers Would Ride, $8.40

Delta Doodle, $30.70

Raposa, $65.50

Obviously, Raposa would have been the nag to bet. Its courageous backers would have received $133 for a $2 bet, a big reward for a horse that should have been put out to pasture long ago.

What such a system proves is that every track contains a fairly high percentage of winning horses that cannot be selected on the basis of information gleaned from the Racing Form or other racing periodicals.

The probability of these horses’ winning is so low that it is reflected on the totalizator board by their high odds. Of course, these odds result from the fact that the handicappers and the public alike ignore such nags because nothing in their records indicates that they have the slightest chance of winning.

If you’re looking to make a lot out of a little, this is the system for you. At least you’ll get a run for your money, some excitement during the race and a winning ticket once in a while. More important, if you can hit enough box-car payoffs, you won’t need the high percentage of winners that the chalk bettor relies on.

Actually, race track officials will tell you confidentially that the long shots and not the favorites really keep the game going. What race tracks fear is that the average fan will lose interest if all the horses that win pay only $3 each. But who is going to lose interest in or forget the one that paid $361.80 for $2?

BETTING THE SYSTEMS will be published each Monday in the Late Final edition of The Times. It is written by staff writer Norman Dash, a newspaperman for 30 years. Dash is the author of two books, “Great Betting Systems” and “Win With Great Betting Systems.” His column, “Great Betting Systems,” ran weekly for two years in the Los Angeles Herald Examiner.