Though their past gaffes haven’t faded away, those fearless pro forecasters, heading into a new decade, have no hestitation in putting a . . . : Finger on Fate : Scout’s Error

Major league baseball teams drafted 439 players before the Dodgers picked Orel Hershiser on the 17th round in 1979.

“Nobody dreamed he’d be the type of player he turned out to be,” said Ben Wade, the Dodgers’ scouting director since 1973. “The big thing was that Tommy Lasorda liked what he saw, but thought Orel’s ability wouldn’t come out until he became more of a competitor.”

So, as Hershiser recalled in his autobiography, one day an angry Dodger manager called the pitcher into his office. Eyes widening and veins bulging, he screamed that Hershiser needed to pitch confidently and announced he was nicknaming the him “Bulldog” to instill more grit. Hershiser responded by winning 23 games in 1988 and keying the Dodgers’ World Series victory.

Which goes to prove Wade’s point.

“Scouting is a guessing game,” he said. “You have to be lucky.”

Wade said he couldn’t have been prouder when No. 1 Dodger draft pick Bob Welch, a rookie pitcher, struck out Reggie Jackson to save a memorable 1978 World Series game.

Welch was traded to Oakland, however, and Wade said he doesn’t have an all-time favorite or least favorite draft choice.

“You don’t get your hopes that high,” Wade said. “You never know what’s inside a player until he plays for you, and you never know who you’ll get in the draft.”

To try to get the right players, Dodger scouts cover separate regions. If an area scout rates a player highly, his supervisor sees the athlete. If the player survives that inspection, a third scout evaluates the prospect.

“More than anything I get out and see the better players in the country,” Wade said. “You have a big cross-check of players. It doesn’t keep you from making a mistake, but it narrows your chances to make a major mistake.”

Yet the Dodgers have made major mistakes in recent years. While catcher Mike Scioscia was drafted in the first round and promising pitcher John Wetteland in the second, the Dodgers’ first picks from 1983 and 1984 never played for the team and have long since been released by the organization. And L.A.’s No. 1 selections from 1986-88 are struggling in the minors.