SPORTS: THE NEXT DECADE : COMMUNICATION : By 1999, We Might Be Paying Per Every View : EXPERTS ARE SAYING THE SUPER BOWL WILL GENERATE ABOUT $700 MILLION AS A PAY-PER-VIEW EVENT.

It is the fall of 1999 and you can watch any Raider or Ram home game that does not sell out.

It costs you $29.95, about the cost of two six-packs. And, anyway, you get together with some neighbors and split the expense.

More than likely by now you own a high-density, big-screen TV that has been on the market since 1995.

The Raiders now play at Anaheim Stadium. Al Davis, after moving the team to Oakland, brought it back to the lucrative L.A. market in 1996 after the NFL got into the pay-per-view business.

The Rams have since returned to the Coliseum, and are waiting for long-promised renovations.

The Rams and Raiders still rarely sell out, but Davis and Ram owner Jerry Buss--he bought the team in 1995--aren’t complaining.

The teams, for home games, attract nearly a million paying viewers nationwide, providing TV revenue of almost $30 million per game.

NFL road games, playoff games and the Super Bowl are still on commercial TV, but that’s expected to change soon after the turn of the century. The speculation is that all NFL games are headed for pay TV.

The Super Bowl alone, some experts are saying, will generate about $700 million as a pay-per-view event.

By 2010, the one-day take should be more than $1 billion.

Here in the fall of 1999, all Clipper and Laker games, home and away, are on pay TV.

The cost for the Clippers is $14.95 per game, or $800 for the 82-game regular-season schedule.

Before buying the Rams, Buss sold the Lakers to Donald Sterling the year after Magic Johnson and James Worthy retired.

The Clippers, under new ownership, moved to Orange County and won two NBA championships. The Lakers haven’t made the playoffs in five seasons.

The Clipper announcer is Chick Hearn, who jumped ship when Buss sold the Lakers. Hearn says he plans to retire in three or four years.

Sterling’s Lakers are priced less--only $9.95 per game and $500 per season. Still, the Clippers outdraw the Lakers five to one.

You see, some things do change.

There are still a few NBA games on commercial TV and the NBA Finals have yet to make the switch.

Neither have the World Series and baseball playoffs, although Dodger and Angel telecasts are now almost exclusively on pay TV.

There are some regular-season baseball games still on free TV, but, experts say, not for long.

If the 1980s were the decade of cable television, the 1990s are expected to be about pay-per-view.

The major players in the pay business figure to be regional sports networks such as Prime Ticket and SportsChannel.

As the ‘80s close, those two are battling it out. Both might not survive the ‘90s.

The logical thing would be for either Bill Daniels, Prime Ticket’s owner, or Cablevision and NBC, SportsChannel’s owners, to buy out the other.

Thus, the Dodgers, Angels, Lakers, Clippers, Kings, and non-network USC and UCLA football--and possibly home Ram and Raider games as well--could all be offered on one premium pay channel.

Meanwhile, most sports events involving teams from other areas and L.A. events of lesser importance would remain on basic-service cable channels.

The consensus is that major networks--CBS, NBC and ABC--will continue to do fewer regular-season telecasts but hang onto the big events, at least through the decade.

NFL Commissioner Paul Tagliabue has said the Super Bowl will not be on pay-per-view before the year 2000.

But that’s only 10 years away.

Of course the pay-per-view business has been around for quite a while for movies and major boxing matches.

But during the ‘90s, it’s going to become more widespread and figures to involve most major sports.

Pay television basically will be in two forms--(1) pay-per-view and (2) pay packages, such as a Laker or Clipper season or half-season package.

The pay business could actually be a good thing for spouses of sports fanatics. The consumer will have to be, or should be, more selective in what he watches. Otherwise, he will be spending hundred of dollars each month.

Sports viewing will be like using the telephone. You will be charged a minimal service fee for having cable, but if you use it a lot, you will pay a lot.

At least, the pro-pay argument goes, you won’t be paying a huge monthly fee for programming you’re not watching.

John Severino, Prime Ticket’s president, says the phone companies might become major players in the cable business.

“Cable companies aren’t interested in wiring lower economic areas because they fear they may not make back their investment,” he said. “Here’s where the phone companies could get involved. They already have such areas wired.

“This would be a way for cable TV to eventually be in virtually every home.”

And that’s when the pay business will really take off.

Marc Lustgarten, vice chairman of Cablevision, the company that owns 50% of the SportsChannel regional networks, including SportsChannel L.A., says the switch to pay TV will be gradual.

“As the audience share for the major network continues to erode, the amount of advertising revenue must also decrease,” he said.

“This is going to make revenue from cable subscribers more important to sports owners.”

Prime Ticket’s Daniels, called the father of cable television and one who has had great insight into the business, agrees.

“I know of NFL owners already concerned about television revenue from commercial television,” he said. “They are beginning to look at other means.”

A new NFL television contract will be negotiated within the next month or two.

“You won’t see pay-per-view in the contract this go-around but you will in the next one,” Daniels said.

“If the NFL owners are smart, they’ll make this contract for as short a term as possible. If they get locked into a long contract, it will end up costing them.”

One good thing about NFL pay-per-view would be a wider selection of games to watch each Sunday.

“Now the networks tell you what games you can watch,” said Phil Hochberg, a Washington attorney who specializes in sports television. “What if you had your own choice? That might be worth paying for.”

In other words, a Cleveland Brown or Pittsburgh Steeler fan living in Los Angeles could watch his team on a regular basis. He would just have to pay for it.

How much will consumers be willing to pay?

“The consumers will be making that decision,” Lustgarten said.

Usually if a sports fan wants to see an event, he doesn’t care how much it costs.

Rick Kulis, president of Choice Entertainment, a Torrance-based pay-per-view distributor, thinks the Super Bowl will be on pay TV by 1999, and the asking price would start out at about $30.

Kulis says a pay-per-view Super Bowl would generate $250 million.

Don Ohlmeyer, president of Ohlmeyer Communications and formerly a top executive at both ABC and NBC, sees the take between $500 million to $600 million.

“The Super Bowl now generates $35 (million) to $40 million. Compare that to $500 (million) to $600 million and you’re talking about a $500 million turnaround.”

Those are the kind of numbers that some believe will drive the NFL to put the Super Bowl on pay TV sooner than the year 2000.

“Money always talks,” Kulis said. “When you’re talking about an emotional issue against an economic issue, the almighty dollar usually wins out.”

Roger Werner, president of ESPN, is among those who isn’t so sure pay TV is the wave of the future.

“The current trends suggest that’s the way we are going, but it’s not a sure thing,” Werner said.

“For one thing, there could be legislation against it.”

Some believe Congress will try to to prevent the NFL from going to pay TV. The thinking is that because the Washington Redskins always sell out, meaning all games are offered on free TV, there will be resistence to televising games on a pay basis in the capital.

As for ESPN getting into pay television, Werner said: “We have no plans to do that.

“Our surcharge to cable operators may go up and that will be passed along to subscribers, but we’re talking pennies, not dollars.”

Werner said if there is a big push to pay, it’s a few years away.

“I don’t see any radical changes in the sports television business until the mid ‘90s.”

Werner acknowledges, however, that escalating rights fees will force television to look more and more to other revenues besides those generated by commercials.

“There is no sign of things slowing down,” Werner said, referring to rising rights fees.

Seth Abraham, HBO senior vice president, said: “The sports wars are just beginning. You could say things are going through the ceiling, but there is no ceiling.”

The question is, can CBS make money on its recent deals to televise baseball ($1.08 billion for four years), the NCAA basketball tournament ($1 billion for seven years) and the Winter Olympics of 1992 and ’94 ($543 million combined)?

And can NBC make money on its $600 million, four-year deal with the NBA?

Most experts say no.

“I think we have to wait until at least 1992 and then take a look,” Werner said. “If some of those deals look good at that time, then, yes, rights fees will continue to go up.”

And the networks will continue to pour big money into sports.

But, if like a lot of people believe, those deals end up not doing well economically, then look for changes. Look for more sports to switch to pay television.