Predictions on Future of Food

While most prognosticators were busy making predictions on what’s in store for Americans during the coming decade, one industry analyst was a little more ambitious and set his future vision on food in the 21st Century.

Martin Friedman, editor of Gorman’s New Product News, made his estimates based on trends occurring today that are then “taken to their furthest extreme.”

Some of the tongue-in-cheek projections, which appeared in the trade journal, are:

* Continued problems with microbiological contaminants will result in the development of supermarket scanners that can indicate at the check-out counter if a food is contaminated. The shopper would then have the option to return the item for a germ-free version.

* With the number of older Americans increasing as the baby boom generations grays into seniors, manufacturers will introduce a wide variety of anti-aging foods.

* The government will take a greater role in the health of consumers by regulating the amounts of fat, protein and sugar that can be legally consumed by any one individual in any period of time. The process would be sort of an Orwellian dietary guideline.

* The number of supermarkets will decline as a boom in home delivery occurs.

* Those people that still do their grocery shopping in food stores will be allowed to shop only on certain days in a government effort to solve traffic gridlock. The system would be similar to the gas rationing of the late 1970s when only those with the proper numerological license plates could buy fuel on specific days.

* The number of vending machines will dramatically increase and some will even provide instant gourmet meals. Payment can be made with credit or ATM cards.

* Increasingly busy life styles will result in more liquid foods that can be consumed on the go.

* Disease preventive foods will control cancer, kidney disease and other common ailments.

* Home cooking will be replaced by home reheating.

Marketing Safety--Salmon farmers in Chile have undertaken an ambitious inspection effort to ensure that any fish exported from the South American nation is safe and wholesome. The move is designed not only to reassure consumers, but to distinguish Chilean seafood from other farmed or wild salmon varieties.

The Chileans, who should know something about food safety after last year’s disastrous episode with poisoned grapes, have become an important source of aquacultured salmon.

“For some time, Chile has been regarded as the wild card in the farmed salmon business, although the South American country’s production is still only about one-tenth that of Norway, (the industry’s giant),” reports Seafood Leader magazine. “Chile’s production is growing by leaps and bounds. The country’s production costs are perhaps the lowest in the world.”

The program is being conducted by the Assn. of Chilean Salmon Farmers, a Santiago-based group. Those fish that are processed under the plan will be identified at the wholesale level by a blue and white tag with the group’s name and emblem prominent on the label as well as the word inspected. Each label is numbered and can be quickly traced to the source if a problem arises.

The actual effort involves inspecting fresh salmon four times during the processing cycle and also checking the fish three additional times for proper temperature. Frozen fish are checked at six different points in the process and also checked for proper temperatures. Independent inspectors have been employed to run the program.

The Chileans hope to fill the void created by the U.S. government, which inspects only a fraction of the fish and shellfish sold in this country. It is also apparent that the group hopes to use the safety issue as a marketing tool.

In announcing the inspection plan recently the group stated, “As important as it is for all producers to improve and maintain their standards, it is also necessary for American consumers to educate themselves as to what good fish is. They should demand to know where it was harvested or caught, and how to tell if a fish is fresh.”

In commenting on the inspection program, Seafood Leader stated that, “The (Chilean) salmon farmers are eager to talk about how clean their water is and their independent inspection program.”

Year of the Chicken--The next 12 months could be a historic year for the meat industry, according to a recent newsletter report. Per capita chicken consumption is estimated to exceed that of beef for the first time in 1990, Nutrition Week states.

Citing federal statistics, the journal stated that consumers will each eat 69.8 pounds of chicken in the coming year, or two pounds more than the rate for beef. Per capita pork consumption is expected to be 63.2 pounds.

A similar projection was made for 1989, but that estimate turned out to be in error.

The total meat consumption rate for 1990 is expected to be 223.8 pounds per person, according to the report.

“Americans are eating more poultry than beef and nothing can change that,” Nutrition Week stated.

Another food industry report attempts to explain why beef has lost favor with consumers.

“Beef was hurt by a poor health reputation that kept getting worse,” reported Supermarket News. “Healthniks had been crying in the wilderness for years about the dangers of eating red meat with too much fat. But during the 1980s, doctors, and then just plain folks, finally started listening.”

The food retailing journal also said that while beef was stigmatized by the health conscious, chicken was getting numerous endorsements for being leaner.

The beef industry advertised extensively to slow the decline in consumption, but also ran into problems when it sought celebrity endorsements.

“The beef people even tried to use stars . . . to turn back the tide. They put Cybill Shepherd and James Garner out front as beef-loving role models,” Supermarket News reported. “It backfired. Shepherd was quoted as saying she hardly ate beef. Garner remained faithful, but he underwent surgery to correct a heart condition, smack in the middle of the campaign.”

The analysis was not all negative, however.

The trade magazine said that subsequent advertisements have gotten people into a “better frame of mind about beef.”