A Cautionary Tale of Raised Expectations : Democracy: A lesson learned in the Philippines is instructive for Eastern Europe: There’s no quick fix, the road is rocky and the reviews are nasty.

Corazon Aquino of the Philippines and Vaclav Havel of Czechoslovakia have a lot in common.

Both are “citizen presidents” catapulted reluctantly to power by the masses. Untainted and untrained, they are referred to as “just a housewife” and “just a playwright.” For each of their countries, Aquino and Havel have symbolic importance beyond the significant roles thrust upon them. They embody their peoples’ hope for a new order that is “clean,” inclusive and prosperous. To realize that hope, they face impossible challenges that would daunt more seasoned politicians. Yet produce they must.

Four years hence, will Havel too be called “weak” and “indecisive” if Czechoslovakia is not yet a thriving democracy? Those are the adjectives used to define Aquino’s seeming inability to turn around 20 years of damage in the four years that she has been in charge. In a speech to an American audience, she addressed these criticisms directly: “I think they wanted a calvary officer and not a President because people kept urging me to be more impetuous. I was surprised at the premium men, especially, put on recklessness.”

In this simple statement, Aquino capsulized the dilemma that not only she encounters daily, but also Havel and the new leaders of Eastern European democracies. How does one lead a people accustomed to strongman techniques and get them to respond positively to the different leadership styles and strategies that nurturing democracies need to succeed?

The rapid tumble of dictatorships and one-party rule this past holiday season generated a euphoria that obscures the rough times ahead. For these fledgling democracies, the Philippines stands as a cautionary tale.

The founding mother of “people power,” Aquino also rode an international crest of good will that created unreal expectations from the start. Seeing how swiftly the Marcos regime had fallen, most Filipinos anticipated a rapid change in the quality of their lives. Although Eastern Europeans seem to have a clearer understanding of the financial crisis they are facing, there is nonetheless a palpable expectation that things will be different--right away.

What they may not realize and what Filipinos did not anticipate is the rough and painful road to national reconstruction. Ferdinand Marcos’ legacy was a nation on the brink of financial ruin, epitomized by a $29-billion foreign debt. Worse, economic deterioration was accompanied by the subversion and corruption of the country’s institutions. “Getting around the system” had become a way of life for most Filipinos.

For Eastern Europeans, the economic and social legacy of their ousted leaders is similar to the one left by Marcos. Furthermore, Eastern Europeans share with their Asian counterparts a potential clash between their desire for change and the habits of old.

This is the past that must be acknowledged in any assessment of Aquino, Havel and other Eastern European leaders. Initial changes will take place in each of their countries. Aquino, for instance, has restored all democratic processes and institutions, passed a new constitution, held elections, resumed payments on Philippine foreign debt and encouraged enough foreign investment so that her country has been able to post a modest 5% to 6% economic growth rate. Not bad for a leader often perceived as a cup half full, either by virtue of her gender or lack of government experience.

But these accomplishments may not mean much to Filipinos who saw democracy as more loose change in their pockets. Bewildered by the cacophony of unbridled democracy, denied the economic quick fix they desired and not recognizing the burdens imposed by their nation’s past, some Filipinos are now hankering for the simplicity of imposed order embodied in the tantalizing idea of a military junta. External discipline is easier than the internal discipline needed to make democracy work.

The Philippine story is not yet complete and no one should underestimate the staying power of Aquino or the commitment of Filipinos to democracy. However, the cycle it has undergone to date is likely to be the same pattern (with varying gradations) that may be followed by the newly forming democracies of Eastern Europe. These nations will be led by men and women unschooled in the basic business of running a government. They learn as they rule, and the swiftness of events as well as the national impatience that accompanies major upheavals will not allow them the luxury of time they need to develop. Some may escape the vilification of their constituents, but more than likely they will be buffeted by the different factions that emerge with every incipient democracy.

The rigors imposed by measures needed to bring about economic recovery will tax the commitment of each citizen to democratic processes. Long-range goals don’t fulfill short-range hunger. In some instances, a yearning for the old order may crystallize into a military resurgence or a revitalized Communist Party.

A grim scenario--or is it the necessary voyage of evolving democracies? Will Vaclav Havel and Corazon Aquino successfully steer their countries away from this historic U-turn? Let’s hope so. In the meantime, judgment should be withheld by all democracy-watchers eager to play Monday-morning quarterback after any setback. For there will be many such reversals. After all, it is easier to win democracy than to run it.