Budget Analysts Detail Savings Potential of Europe Troop Cuts

The cuts in conventional forces in Europe envisioned by Western negotiators in Vienna could save American taxpayers $3 billion annually. Still deeper cuts currently under consideration by the Army and Air Force could save $12 billion, the Congressional Budget Office told lawmakers Monday.

The estimates represent the first effort by a government agency to assess publicly the budget implications of troop reductions being discussed both in East-West negotiating talks and internally at the Pentagon.

The congressional budget analysts also calculated that $27 billion annually could be saved through a plan touted by experts outside the Pentagon--a proposal that entails the demobilization of 50% of Air Force tactical forces and Army troops dedicated to the defense of Europe.

The report, prepared for the Senate Budget Committee, is likely to give new impetus to efforts to move beyond the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) negotiations even before the prospective treaty is completed. President Bush has urged Western negotiators to finalize the details of the CFE negotiations by late spring.

Bush Administration officials have committed the United States to seek reductions beyond those called for by the draft CFE treaty, but have been unwilling to detail their proposals for a new round of talks.

The estimated $3-billion annual savings from the CFE cuts would come from the treaty’s proposed reductions of 30,000 of the 310,000 troops now based in Europe, including 25,900 Army personnel and 4,100 Air Force personnel.

Budget analysts warned that those savings would be partly offset by the costs of verifying the treaty.

The force reductions envisioned by the budget office as a step beyond the current CFE negotiations would save $12 billion by reducing the Army and the Air Force’s primarily non-nuclear strike force by 143,000 servicemen and women.

The latest figures are nearly identical to those proposed by the Army and Air Force in November in response to orders issued by Defense Secretary Dick Cheney.

The cost figures come as the Pentagon’s senior military officer, Gen. Colin L. Powell, conceded that the defense budget probably will continue to decrease by several percentage points a year for the foreseeable future.

However, in a speech Monday, Powell said that cuts in Pentagon spending cannot continue indefinitely without eventually damaging U.S. defenses.

“We have a valid, credible strategy and a finely tuned, balanced force to execute that (American) strategy,” Powell told the Reserve Officer’s Assn. in Washington.