COMMENTARY : Hope Rises in Spring; Maybe It Shouldn’t for Some Franchises

Play ball? Sorry, not yet. Not when baseball’s owners have taken all the equipment and gone home. And, blasphemous as this might sound, that isn’t all bad.

Think about it. Every spring, the same, tired cliches are trotted out by managers, general managers and players on teams destined for mediocrity. You’ve heard them all too often. And sometimes, caught up in the bright sun, green grass and warm air of spring training camps, you’ve believed them:

“If we can stay healthy. . . .”

“If the young kids develop. . . .”

“We’re going to improve our fundamentals. . . ..”

“This could be the year we put it together.”

So now that we’ve already had our hopes dashed and our minds cluttered with unfamiliar terms such as revenue sharing and pay-for-performance, we should be less inclined to believe the false promises of the wanna-bes.

No, hope shouldn’t spring eternal in:

Cleveland. If Major League Baseball had a draft lottery, the Indians would be regular participants. There hasn’t been a pennant in Cleveland Stadium in 36 years. In fact, other than an 86-victory season in 1986, the Indians averaged 70 victories in the 1980s. Count on more of the same in 1990.

Gone from an offense that was last in the league in runs are two of the top three run producers--Joe Carter and Pete O’Brien. The return on Carter--rookie-of-the-year candidate Sandy Alomar--was nice. But Alomar isn’t a power hitter. There was no return on O’Brien, who signed as a free agent with Seattle. The best the Indians could do to replace him is Keith Hernandez, who is six years older and hasn’t been healthy in three years.

The projected middle third of the lineup is Hernandez, Cory Snyder and Brook Jacoby. Besides the chronically disappointing Snyder, the rest of the outfield will come from National League castoffs Mitch Webster, Dion James, Brad Komminsk and Chris James, and promising rookie Joey Belle. Take your pick from that same group for a designated hitter.

GM Hank Peters says the Indians’ starting rotation of Greg Swindell, Tom Candiotti, John Farrell and Bud Black compares with any in the league, and therefore the Indians can be a part of the AL East race. But weak middle relief will counterbalance that strength.

John McNamara must have wanted back into the managing fray badly to take on this destined-for-failure assignment.

Montreal. Can any team lose three starting pitchers and keep from falling apart? Even with Mark Langston, Pascual Perez and Bryn Smith, the Expos lost 20 of their last 29 games. Without them, joining Kevin Gross, Dennis Martinez and Zane Smith in the rotation could be health risk Dennis (Oil Can) Boyd, a fresh-from-the-senior-league Joaquin Andujar and rookie Mark Gardner.

And this hardly is a team capable of making up for pitching shortcomings with offense. With Hubie Brooks also gone, only Andres Galarraga and Tim Wallach are left from among the returnees that hit more than 10 homers in 1989. A confused Galarraga amassed 158 strikeouts in doing so, and Wallach also has slipped.

GM Dave Dombrowski has downplayed the mass defections, but it will take rookies such as Gardner, Delino DeShields, Marquis Grissom and Larry Walker to develop sooner than expected to keep the Expos out of last place.

Houston. For years, the Astros have relied too heavily on their pitching. Some years, such as 1986, they got away with it. But this aging staff isn’t what it used to be. Last year, it finished ninth in the league in ERA and walks.

Beyond Mike Scott and Jim Deshaies, there are only question marks. Nolan Ryan, Bob Knepper and Bob Forsch are long gone. Rick Rhoden and Jim Clancy weren’t the answer. Bill Gullickson will get a try. Dave Smith also has slipped as a closer.

That’s not all of Manager Art Howe’s problems. Kevin Bass was lost to free agency, further weakening an offense that was 11th in the league with a .239 average. Bass’ loss also typifies the morale-damaging problem of owner John McMullen’s cost-cutting measures. As George Steinbrenner has proven, you can’t always buy a winner. But teams that won’t pay never win.

Boston. Let’s not lump the Red Sox with the last-place possibilities mentioned above--not when the Tigers and Indians also are in the division. But to forecast the Red Sox as division winners is equally as preposterous.

Tony Pena and Jeff Reardon--the Red Sox’s two winter free-agent acquisitions--aren’t enough to help Boston catch the Blue Jays. Especially when Bill Buckner and Carlos Quintana are playing first base, there is no regular DH, and the rotation behind Roger Clemens and Mike Boddicker is dangerously thin.

The Red Sox thought they could deal Lee Smith for a starting pitcher, but the best offer they received was a prospect. They thought they had a first baseman in Jim Presley but waffled and lost him to Atlanta. Those who think the Red Sox will contend also are wrong.

No matter how bogged down the labor talks may become, here’s a prediction that baseball definitely will be played by April 14. Why? That’s the date of CBS’ first broadcast under their $1-billion agreement.

An aside to the talks was Players Assn. Executive Director Donald Fehr’s anger over ESPN’s decision to pay baseball the entire $400 million of its contract to televise games--lockout or no lockout. When an ESPN reporter requested an interview with Fehr after a session last week, Fehr couldn’t resist a dig before answering questions.

“How should I react to the fact that ESPN is committed to pay MLB all of its money regardless?” Fehr said sarcastically.

Wally Backman, signed as a free agent by Pittsburgh, is glad to be back in the National League after a season with Minnesota. “After I was in the American League for a month, I just really knew that I only wanted to play in the National League,” Backman said. “It wasn’t because of the caliber of ball; it was just the way the game is played. It’s just sitting around, waiting for the big home run.”