Democratic Registration at 56-Year Low

Bad news for California’s Democrats: Their share of registered voters has slipped below 50% for the first time in 56 years.

The California secretary of state’s soon-to-be-released Report of Registration shows incremental good news for Republicans, who now claim 39.02% of the registered voters. Democrats have dropped to 49.94%. This continues a trend under way in California since 1976.

The remainder of voters in the latest survey include almost 9% who decline to state a party preference and small fractions for minor parties. A copy of the forthcoming report was obtained by The Times.

The mounting problems for Democrats and corresponding opportunities for Republicans may be greater than the 11% registration margin indicates. This is because Californians traditionally vote more conservative and more Republican than the GOP share of the registration, in part because of lower Democratic voter turnout at election time and in part because of a right-leaning independent streak among voters.

In 1976, 57.37% of the electorate was registered Democratic and 23% Republican--a modern high-water mark for the Democrats. It has been slipping since then.

Just last year, Democrats could claim 50.3% of the electorate and Republicans 38.8%.

“There is only one conclusion: Democrats are in trouble,” said Larry Berg, director of the Jesse Unruh Institute of Politics at USC. “Obviously, they are doing something wrong--either in the mechanics or in message or the candidates.”

The drop below 50% occurs with two important events looming: The 1990 elections and the keenly anticipated reapportionment of congressional and legislative seats resulting from this year’s census. Right now, Democrats control 60% of the seats in California’s congressional delegation and 58% of the legislative seats.

The Democratic drop in registration adds pressure on state party chairman and former Gov. Edmund G. Brown Jr. Beginning his second year as party chairman, he has acknowledged that his political comeback will hinge on his ability to rebuild the declining fortunes of the Democrats.

“Obviously, the organization that Gov. Brown is building needs to move into the production phase--registering Democrats. The planning and the preliminaries need to be wrapped up. Now is the time for tangibilitization,” said Richie Ross, campaign manager for Atty Gen. John K. Van de Kamp, a Democratic candidate for governor.

Brown called the trend “a nationwide downdraft for Democrats. And California is no exception.”

Nationwide, he said, the two parties are about evenly divided at 45%-45%.

As for pressure, he warned, it falls most immediately on the party’s two candidates for governor, Van de Kamp and Dianne Feinstein. Brown said it costs the party between $4 and $6 to add a single Democratic voter to the rolls--an enormous expense at a time when competition for every liberal campaign dollar is relentless.

Brown noted that the Democrats have a contested primary in the race for governor while the Republicans do not. Moreover, one of the candidates, Van de Kamp, has embarked on a simultaneous effort to qualify three ballot propositions for the November election, each a costly venture. And finally, the Democrats are gearing up to try to defeat two proposals that could reduce party control of reapportionment.

“All these things are competing voraciously for scarce Democratic campaign dollars,” Brown said. “But I agree, we need a very strong voter-registration drive for this year.”

Not since 1934 has the Democratic Party slipped below 50% in voter registration. That year, each party’s share of the electorate was remarkably similar to today’s: 49.54% Democratic and 38.9% Republican.

Some Democrats cautioned against making too much of the decline in registration.

One of these is Jim Wisley, a demographic expert who works for Democrats. “Given the squishiness of party loyalties these days and the power of single issues, like growth or the environment or abortion, registration doesn’t mean what it used to.”

But some experts warn that there has been a profound change in California politics and that shifts in voter registration merely lag behind the real voting inclinations of an increasingly conservative state.

Mark DiCamillo, research director of Field Research and the independent California Poll, said: “Our polling found a changeover in 1985, a year after Ronald Reagan was reelected. That year, for the first time in more than 30 years, the number of Californians who identify with the Republican Party pulled even with those who identify with the Democratic Party.”

Otto Boz, campaign director for U.S. Sen. Pete Wilson, Republican candidate for governor, said that the GOP has been savoring the trend for some time now.

“What we need to be able to do is take advantage of it,” he said. “We’ve been saying all along there is a genuine opportunity to become the majority party.”

Times political writer Keith Love contributed to this article.