Derby Hopefuls Hard to Peg Thus Far

The yellow brick road to Louisville looks like the Brooklyn-Queens Expressway with a lane closed. Intriguing 3-year-olds, it seems, are everywhere; there is great congestion and a smattering of anxiety but little forward motion. No horns blare but the sound of guessing and second-guessing is beginning to build.

With traffic stalled and only nine Saturdays left before the Kentucky Derby, the rumor mill is agush.

Summer Squall, who will be absent from the Fountain of Youth Stakes on Saturday at Gulfstream Park, either bled mildly in a recent workout or gushed like a sieve, depending upon whom you speak to. Similarly, Summer Squall, who was undefeated in five races at 2, is either completely sound after knee surgery or training more tenderly every day.

The only thing that seemed certain on the eve of the Eastern season’s first graded two-turn stakes for 3-year-olds was that it will be some time before anything is certain. Undefeated Champagneforashley has yet to enter the picture and undefeated Mister Frisky must be watched in the California preps. With luck, the traffic will begin to break up soon, perhaps Saturday.

Thirteen were entered for the 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth, four of them major Triple Crown figures. Another important ingredient in this melange, Red Ransom, is entered at Gulfstream for the second consecutive Saturday and will make his long-awaited 3-year-old debut in a seven-furlong allowance race. Well, maybe. It might rain.

Red Ransom was scratched from an allowance race against older horses Saturday when trainer Mack Miller decided his final pre-race work had been too fast to allow complete recovery. The colt, sensational in his two races last season, worked a much more conservative 48 1/5 half-mile under a heavy exercise rider Thursday and is one of 13 late nominees to the Grade I Florida Derby in two weeks, a race not in the conservative Miller’s original plan.

Slavic, who won a 1 1/16-mile allowance race in a solid season’s debut, is the favorite to win the Fountain of Youth over a field that includes 1989 2-year-old champion Rhythm, Remsen champion Yonder and Young America winner Roanoke, who will make his first start of the year. It is a race that mirrors the division, since it would be no surprise if any of these colts won the Fountain of Youth and only mildly surprising if none of them won.

Late-running Yonder comes off a big move into a slow last quarter, finishing second in the seven-furlong Hutcheson. Trainer Woody Stephens expects a repeat performance, but frets over the pace. “He won’t get any better,” Stephens said. “He was dead fit for the Hutcheson, fittest horse in the field. But he needs a fast pace.”

Rhythm was a disappointing seventh in the Hutcheson but has since worked well. Trainer Shug McGaughey will likely learn much about the colt’s Derby prospects Saturday. Roanoke, a huge, rangy colt, will probably need a race or two before coming into form. And Slavic, whom trainer Scotty Schulhofer said is “as good a 3-year-old as I’ve ever been around,” may be a step or two away from his best form.