THE TIMES POLL : Feinstein Opens a Big Lead on Van de Kamp

Capitalizing on charisma and beating her opponent on his own issues, Dianne Feinstein has opened up a 19-point lead over John K. Van de Kamp in their race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, according to the Los Angeles Times Poll.

The statewide survey shows Feinstein, with substantial help from women, running ahead of Van de Kamp by 43% to 24%. But 33% still are undecided with three months to go before the June primary.

In a hypothetical November match-up with Republican Sen. Pete Wilson, Feinstein leads the prospective GOP nominee by 11 points--44% to 33% with 23% undecided. But Van de Kamp and Wilson are running essentially even--Wilson 33%, Van de Kamp 32%, with 35% undecided.

Thought by many experts to be washed up politically only a few weeks ago, Feinstein was boosted by a strategically timed television commercial she ran in Southern California and the Central Valley during January and February, the poll showed.

The dramatic commercial, the first run by any of this year’s gubernatorial candidates, emphasized Feinstein’s leadership as mayor of San Francisco after she succeeded the assassinated George Moscone. It concluded by noting that Feinstein has always been “pro-choice” on abortion and is “the only Democrat for governor for the death penalty.”

The 30-second TV spot used buzzwords and themes that clearly aroused the interest of voters, the poll illustrated. California Democrats, interviews showed, “favor” abortion by 2 to 1 and the death penalty by 3 1/2 to 1.

The dilemma for Atty. Gen. Van de Kamp is that--unlike Feinstein--he personally opposes abortion, although he joins her in supporting abortion rights. Likewise, he personally opposes capital punishment, although he promises that as governor he would not block executions. These conflicts between personal beliefs and public positions confuse many voters and make them suspicious, the poll indicated.

One-third of the Democrats and half the Republicans polled said they are less likely to vote for Van de Kamp because of his personal view on capital punishment.

But some of the worst news for Van de Kamp in the poll involves two issues that he has carved out as his own: the environment and government ethics. When Democratic voters were asked which candidate “would do the best job” on the environment, Feinstein was chosen over Van de Kamp by 2 1/2 to 1. Similarly, 3 1/2 times as many voters thought she would be better at handling government ethics.

Either Van de Kamp is not getting his message across or voters are ignoring it, the survey indicated.

Beyond that, there is strong evidence that voters at this relatively early stage of the race are choosing up sides based not on the issues, but on personal qualities. For example, nearly four times as many Democrats felt that Feinstein, rather than Van de Kamp, “is the most dynamic” and “relates best to people.” And more than twice as many believed she “has the strongest convictions,” “is the most dependable” and “has the most vision.”

The telephone survey of 2,058 California adults was conducted for six days, ending Thursday night--a period in which Van de Kamp should have been running at maximum strength because he was touring the state formally kicking off his campaign and generating a lot of news coverage.

Among those interviewed were 1,573 registered voters, including 742 Democrats, 638 Republicans, 166 independents and some members of minor parties. The margins of error for the total sample and registered voters are three points in either direction. For the Democrats and Republicans separately the error margins are four points.

“At the present time, Mayor Feinstein is clearly perceived as the most attractive personality among the three major contenders for governor,” Times Poll Director I. A. Lewis said. “That fact, along with Van de Kamp’s apparent fragility on certain issues, has for the moment made her the front-runner for the Democratic nomination.”

Feinstein’s emergence as the Democratic front-runner marks a stunning turnaround for a candidate who only last summer was accused by her former campaign manager of lacking spunk and energy. An October survey by the Times poll found her trailing Van de Kamp by 12 points, and an early December survey showed her lagging by 10.

Now, it is hard to find any voter group that does not favor Feinstein, the first woman ever to become a major candidate for governor in California. Women support her strongly, by more than 2 to 1. But men also back her, though by a smaller margin, 4 to 3.

Being a woman helps Feinstein in the Democratic primary for the simple reason that women greatly outnumber men in the party, 3 to 2. Three-fifths of her supporters are women.

Among the entire electorate, however, women have only a slight edge in numbers. And in a contest with Republican Wilson, although women support Feinstein by nearly 2 to 1, she winds up leading the senator by just 11 points because men split their votes evenly.

Geographically, Feinstein shows surprising strength even in Los Angeles County, where Van de Kamp served eight years as district attorney and his family is well known because of the bakery chain it founded. Trying to cut into Van de Kamp’s Southern California base, the former San Francisco mayor moved into a rented Century City condominium last fall and--more important--poured roughly half a million dollars into buying TV commercial time in the Los Angeles market.

The result is that Feinstein now is running even with Van de Kamp in Los Angeles County and leading him by 2 to 1 in the rest of Southern California. She leads by 5 to 1 in her native San Francisco Bay Area and 5 to 3 throughout the rest of Northern California.

Feinstein also leads big among management and union members, liberals and moderates, Protestants and Catholics, high school and college graduates, the young and the old.

The Times poll also sought to learn how the overall electorate feels generally about the three major gubernatorial candidates, regardless of any primary or general election match-ups. So all registered voters in the survey were asked who they “would like to see as governor”--Feinstein, Van de Kamp or Wilson.

The response was a virtual tie between Feinstein and Wilson, with each candidate drawing twice as much support as Van de Kamp. The reason Feinstein runs only even with Wilson in this three-way exercise, but beats him by 11 points in a more realistic two-way match-up, is that inserting Van de Kamp into the mix splits the Democratic vote.

The poll found a surprising lack of voter knowledge about Wilson, despite the fact that he has been a U.S. senator for seven years and is now running in his fourth statewide race in a dozen years. Nearly half the voters did not know enough about him to say whether they approve or disapprove “of the way he is handling his job as senator.” Among the rest, his performance is approved by 3 to 2.

In the three-way mix of candidates, Feinstein is considered the one who “best represents change” from the Deukmejian Administration. Wilson is regarded as “the best example of business as usual” and the one “most identified with the political Establishment as the ‘insider.’ ” Van de Kamp is thought to have “the poorest judgment”--perhaps because of the “Hillside Strangler” case.

Initially, when interviewed, nearly two-thirds of the voters said they had not heard enough about the 1981 case to approve or disapprove of the way Van de Kamp handled it as district attorney. But then voters were informed that “Van de Kamp decided to prosecute Angelo Buono, one of the ‘Hillside Strangler’ defendants, only on sex charges because he thought there was not enough evidence to convict him of murder. But the judge refused to accept this decision and gave the case instead to state authorities, who then gained a murder conviction.”

After being reminded of this information--as voters undoubtedly will be, repeatedly, by Van de Kamp’s opponents this election year--nearly four in 10 Democrats said his handling of the case makes them “less likely” to support him for governor.

Among the three candidates, Wilson--a strong supporter of capital punishment--was judged to be the one who “would do the best job as far as the death penalty is concerned.” Feinstein was a close second. But Van de Kamp, presumably because of his long career in law enforcement, was considered to be the candidate who would do the best overall job on crime.

Van de Kamp has concentrated a substantial amount of his time and money on efforts to qualify three initiatives for the November ballot--sweeping proposals dealing with crime, the environment and government ethics. They make up the core of his gubernatorial campaign. But so far this strategy seems to have netted him little politically.

In the three-way candidate mix, Feinstein is considered by voters to be “the best” on the environment and government ethics, followed in each case by Wilson.

According to this survey, however, Feinstein’s strongest issues are health and education, two topics that traditionally have worked well for women candidates. She also is considered to be the best on the abortion issue.

Evidence that Feinstein got a lot of mileage from her TV commercials was found when interviewers asked voters whether they recalled seeing it. One-fourth of the Democrats said they had seen the ad. And among these people, Feinstein is favored by a 32-point margin. Among those who did not catch the commercial, she is favored by 14 points.

The former mayor appears to be vulnerable on at least one aspect of her past--leaving San Francisco’s city government with a $180-million deficit. Three in 10 Democrats--and more than four in 10 Republicans--said this fact makes them “less likely” to vote for her.

Among all voters, Feinstein also was judged to be “the least knowledgeable.”

There definitely is an environmental constituency out there for politicians to tap, the survey showed. More than half the voters--especially Democrats--said “the quality of life in California has declined” in the last decade.

Roughly a third of the voters said that “fruits and vegetables are contaminated with pesticides.” More than half--including voters in the crop-rich Central Valley--thought “there should be a temporary halt” to anti-Medfly spraying in Southern California until “more research can be done on the harmful effects of malathion.”

Six in 10 of those polled disapproved of oil drilling off the California coast.

VOTER PREFERENCES Los Angeles Times Poll results among 1,573 registered voters interviewed statewide on the six days ending March 1, 1990.

Which Candidate . . .

Among Registered Voters Feinstein Van de Kamp Wilson

If the Demorcatic Primary for governor were being held today, for whom would you vote. . . (Democratic voters) Dianne Feinstein: 43% John Van de Kamp: 24 No Opinion: 33 If the November election for governor were being held today, for whom would you vote. . . (All registered voters) Dianne Feinstein: 44% Pete Wilson: 33 No Opinion: 23 . . .or John Van de Kamp: 32% Pete Wilson: 33 No Opinion: 35 Source: L.A. Times Poll