Northridge Dominance Faces Test : Swimming: Matador women seek fourth Division II title in a row.

Pencils have been worn to a nub in an effort to factor a variety of facts, figures and fractions.

Times have been compared, entries juggled, strategy debated and--surprise!--the same stormy forecast has been made by that pillar of pessimism, Pete Accardy, coach of the Cal State Northridge men’s and women’s swimming teams.

CSUN’s women’s team will be hard-pressed, Accardy says, to repeat as champion in the NCAA Division II meet, which begins tonight and runs through Saturday at the State University of New York at Buffalo natatorium.

But have we not heard such propaganda before?

Last year, after the first day of competition, Accardy announced: “We’re going to be in a battle.”

Wrong. Everyone else was in for a slaughter. The Northridge women’s team won its third consecutive national title, dunking second-place North Dakota State, 397-280.

This time, however, it might be best to believe.

The reason: The absence of a trio that were to Division II swimming what Murderers Row was to the ’27 Yankees.

Tina Schnare, Stacy Mettam and Jude Kylander, who accounted for 16 individual titles in their collegiate careers, completed their eligibility last season.

“We have a lot of new girls,” Accardy said of his contingent of nine qualifiers. “If they come in and compete at the level that we normally do at this meet, then we will be a contending team. If not, we won’t.”

Certainly, the Lady Matadors still have an arsenal of nautical weaponry, including junior Toady Kimble, who won last season’s 100-yard freestyle in a school-record time of 51.40 seconds.

Lisa Dial, a senior, and Michelle Sulak, a junior, combine with Kimble to form another rather imposing trio.

Dial holds the CSUN record of 4:30.78 in the 400-yard individual medley and Sulak has school bests of 17:07.15 in the 1,650-yard freestyle and 2:05.95 in the 200-yard butterfly.

In addition, the Lady Matadors have Mara Morgan, a freshman from Livermore, Calif., who is ranked first in the nation in three events and second in another.

Morgan’s times of 2:09.10 in the 200-yard backstroke, 4:31.02 in the 400-yard individual medley and 17:11.19 in the 1,650-yard freestyle were all Division II bests through February.

Accardy said Morgan’s performances will be key for CSUN. But then so will everyone else’s.

“The last two years we were supposed to be in dogfights, but we swam so well that it wasn’t,” Accardy said. “This year we’re not as flexible as we have been in the past.

“I think we have our work cut out for us. For us to win, we need a great performance out of everyone.”

Accardy said he considers Northern Michigan and North Dakota to be CSUN’s top challengers.

In the men’s competition, Cal State Bakersfield is seeking its fifth consecutive title and is expected to once again battle Oakland (Mich.) University for the team title.

CSUN’s men’s team, which won nine national championships from 1975-85, could finish as high as third, Accardy said.

Ten swimmers on the CSUN men’s team met national qualifying standards, including senior Ted Hollahan, the Division II record-holder in the 100 freestyle (44.65) and 200 freestyle (1:37.37).