NEWS ANALYSIS : Many See Namibia as a Rehearsal for S. Africa’s Future : Transition: Both have histories of white dominance and black guerrilla war. But politics and geography differ.

As Namibia ended four decades of Pretoria-imposed apartheid and white colonial rule Wednesday, South Africans watched closely what many think could be a dress rehearsal for their own country’s impending march away from racial segregation and black oppression.

The success or failure of Namibia’s new constitution is viewed by South African whites as well as blacks as an important test of multiracial government in a nation that looks like South Africa, has thousands of South African-born residents and has been run by South Africans.

“I don’t envy my friends in South Africa,” said Annetjie Lemstra, a white Namibian who runs a cafe in the coastal town of Swakopmund. “At least the difficult part is behind us now. But in South Africa, it’s only just beginning.”

Many diplomats, including high-ranking State Department officials, believe the coming months and years in Namibia will, at the very least, have a psychological effect on South Africa and encourage both the government and anti-apartheid leaders to embrace democratic solutions to their differences.

Among the worries of white South Africans watching Namibia’s independence celebrations, broadcast live on state-run TV, are: Will the lives and property of whites be protected under a black majority government, and can a black revolutionary movement shed its socialist ideals to lure foreign investment into the country?

Although the two countries are vastly different in size and political makeup, Namibia has long been treated as a fifth province of South Africa.

In both countries, a voteless black majority population has lived under the rule of white Afrikaners, the original white settlers of South Africa, and laws have segregated residential areas, hospitals and schools. Most of the land in both nations is owned by whites, who account for only 6% of the population in Namibia and 15% in South Africa. And, like South Africa, Namibia has been racked by a long guerrilla war.

In fact, South Africa’s 23-year battle against Namibia’s South-West Africa People’s Organization was viewed in South Africa as the first front of the Afrikaner’s struggle for survival.

Over the course of two generations, thousands of white South African soldiers were sent to “the border area,” as the war front in northern Namibia was called. And many white South African families lost young sons in the battle to stem Communist expansion in the region and protect Namibia from SWAPO occupation. Today SWAPO is the majority party here, although it lacks enough votes to rewrite the constitution, considered one of the most democratic in Africa.

Namibia’s road to independence began in 1978, with a U.N. resolution calling on South Africa to allow “free and fair elections” in its colony. But Pretoria refused and the ensuing 12 years saw a variety of multiracial transitional governments, which, although still ultimately controlled by South Africa, were allowed to begin dismantling apartheid laws.

In a U.S.-mediated pact only 15 months ago, South Africa agreed to give up Namibia in exchange for a withdrawal of Cuban troops from Angola, Namibia’s northern neighbor. The United Nations supervised one-person, one-vote elections for a constituent assembly, which drew up the new constitution in a display of black-white compromise yet to be seen in neighboring South Africa.

“A lot of people think this is a dress rehearsal for South Africa,” said Andre du Pisani, director of research at the South African Institute of International Affairs in Johannesburg. “But I don’t think you’ll see a whole repeat of Namibia’s transition. It’ll be a different transition with different dynamics and a different approach as well.”

One of the important differences between the two countries is that South Africa is a much more urbanized and politically aware society than Namibia, a vast country with only 1.3 million inhabitants.

The African National Congress, the primary South African anti-apartheid movement led by Nelson R. Mandela, is considered one of the most sophisticated liberation organizations in southern Africa’s history. Thousands of ANC members have college degrees and have traveled the world, for example, while only SWAPO’s top figures obtained degrees while in exile.

Another difference between the two countries is the role international powers have played in resolving internal disputes. In Namibia, the United Nations sent an army of 6,000 people to watch over the independence process; South Africa, Angola and Cuba met regularly to assess the territory’s progress. Hundreds of independent commissions have streamed into Namibia to make their own assessments of the peace process.

South Africa and leading black groups there, on the other hand, have turned down all offers of outside mediation. Even leading anti-apartheid groups seem to agree with Foreign Minister Roelof F. (Pik) Botha, who has declared that “South Africa’s problems will be solved by South Africans.”

Nevertheless, Du Pisani and other analysts say South Africa has learned plenty of valuable lessons from its experience in Namibia.

“We now have an understanding of how the South African government is going to play its hand in negotiations with the black majority,” Du Pisani said.

South African President Frederik W. de Klerk already has begun to remove restrictions on black political activity, a process his country initiated in Namibia several years ago when it allowed SWAPO guerrillas to operate an internal political wing. De Klerk lifted the ban on the ANC and other government opponents in February.

Du Pisani said Pretoria also has learned that to have successful negotiations with the ANC and other black groups, the government will need to first agree on key principles for the future and then launch step-by-step talks--as happened in the U.S.-mediated talks on Namibia and Angola.

“The South African negotiating strategy then was quite sophisticated and tough,” Du Pisani said. “And I expect that some of the South African officials who played a major role in those negotiations will be involved inside South Africa as well.”