THE TIMES POLL : Feinstein’s Lead Over Van de Kamp Takes a Dip

Amid volleys of television commercials, Democratic gubernatorial hopeful Dianne Feinstein is retaining a sizable, but declining, lead over rival John K. Van de Kamp as some of her previous supporters take a second look and switch to “undecided,” The Times Poll has found.

Now ahead by 11 points--down from the fat 19-point cushion she enjoyed four weeks ago in a Times survey--Feinstein continues to get a big boost from women, who support her by 2-to-1 over Van de Kamp. Men, on the other hand, are divided about equally between the two candidates.

Feinstein also is building a solid base of strongly committed supporters, the interviews showed. Of people who favor her, one-third said their support is “very strong.” Van de Kamp’s bloc of strongly committed supporters is only about half as large.

The barrage of TV advertising fired off by both camps in recent weeks clearly is affecting the voters’ opinions about these candidates for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, the survey showed. For example, voters who have seen a Feinstein commercial hold a much higher impression of her than those who have not. To a lesser extent, Van de Kamp’s image also rises among people who have watched one of his TV ads.

Likewise, for either Feinstein or Van de Kamp, campaign support increases significantly among voters who have seen one of the candidate’s TV ads.

The poll found Feinstein, the former San Francisco mayor, to be leading state Atty. Gen. Van de Kamp by 35% to 24%, with a substantial 41% still undecided 10 weeks before the June 5 primary election. Van de Kamp has trimmed Feinstein’s once-whopping lead by eight points in the last four weeks, based on Times surveys. But Van de Kamp himself has not risen in the polls. Rather, Feinstein has slipped, with her previous supporters moving into the undecided ranks.

In hypothetical November matchups with U.S. Sen. Pete Wilson, the prospective Republican nominee, both Democrats have slight edges that are barely significant statistically. The figures: Feinstein 39%, Wilson 34%, undecided 27%; Van de Kamp 37%, Wilson 33%, undecided 30%. In both cases, Wilson’s percentage is virtually unchanged from last month, but Feinstein’s has dropped slightly and Van de Kamp’s risen a bit.

The Times Poll, directed by I.A. Lewis, interviewed 1,667 registered voters by telephone for six days, ending Wednesday night--a period when both camps were bombarding TV viewers with commercials. Those surveyed included 837 Democrats, 594 Republicans and 236 voters who are “independents” or registered in minor parties. The margin of error for the survey of all voters is three percentage points in either direction. For the Democrats and Republicans, the error margin is five points.

The poll also asked voters about some other contests on the primary ballot and found:

- People are beginning to look more favorably at Proposition 111, the sweeping proposal to finance an ambitious 10-year highway building plan by doubling the gasoline tax over a five-year period and raising the state spending limit. Voters now are divided about equally on the measure, with 45% in favor, 42% opposed and 13% undecided. By contrast, last month’s Times survey found voters opposed by a 13-point margin.

In the latest poll, Times interviewers spelled out the arguments for and against Proposition 111 in more detail than they did in the March survey, which may have accounted for some of the increase in support.

Democrats favor Proposition 111 more than Republicans do, interviews showed. San Francisco Bay Area residents support it by a large margin, while people in Los Angeles County favor it only slightly. The measure still is not supported by residents in the remainder of Southern and Northern California.

- Voters overwhelmingly support Proposition 108, a companion to Proposition 111, that would authorize a $1-billion bond issue for rail transit projects. It is favored by 64% to 21%, with 15% undecided. But people are less enthusiastic about Proposition 116, a rival, more expensive measure that would authorize a $1.9-billion bond issue for rail systems. The figures: favor 44%, oppose 38%, undecided 18%.

- Few voters are paying much attention to primary election races for such statewide offices as lieutenant governor, treasurer, insurance commissioner and attorney general.

In the Democratic gubernatorial contest, Feinstein leads all over the state, even enjoying a tiny edge in Los Angeles County, where Van de Kamp served eight years as district attorney and his family is well known because of the bakery chain it founded. Throughout Southern California, Feinstein is ahead only slightly. But in Northern California, her lead is 5 to 3.

It is not hard, looking at voter responses, to see why both candidates have placed heavy emphasis on capital punishment in some of their TV commercials. Feinstein adamantly supports the death penalty. Van de Kamp has a special problem politically--he personally opposes the death penalty but has vowed to carry out executions because they are the law.

Van de Kamp’s challenge is to hold onto supporters who overwhelmingly favor the death penalty. And this survey showed that the attorney general’s supporters are even more adamantly pro-capital punishment than are Feinstein’s.

Despite Van de Kamp being the state’s chief law enforcement officer, Democratic voters are not sure which candidate would “do the best job handling the death penalty.” If anything, they tend to think Feinstein would be better.

Van de Kamp’s supporters seem to be attracted to him primarily because of his government experience. Feinstein’s voters are chiefly drawn to her because she “can get things done.” They also apparently like her ideology.

The paradox is that Feinstein, if anything, tends to be more moderate than Van de Kamp, but liberals support her by nearly 2 to 1. By contrast, Democratic conservatives lean toward Van de Kamp, who is generally regarded to be the more liberal of the two.

So far, half of Feinstein’s supporters say they have seen one of her TV commercials. But only one-fourth of Van de Kamp’s voters have seen one of his.

VOTER PREFERENCES

From 837 respondents who said they were registered Democrats and were asked questions about the upcoming Democratic primary in June.

If the Democratic primary election were being held today, for whom would you vote?

FOR GOVERNOR

CANDIDATE % MARCH 1990 % FEB. 1990 Dianne Feinstein 35 43 John Van de Kamp 24 24 No opinion 41 33

FOR ATTORNEY GENERAL

CANDIDATE % MARCH 1990 % FEB. 1990 Ira Reiner 19 18 Arlo Smith 13 12 Someone else 1 2 No opinion 67 68

FOR STATE INSURANCE COMMISSIONER

CANDIDATE % MARCH 1990 % FEB. 1990 Ray Bourhis 1 * Conway Collis 2 * John Garamendi 9 * Bill Press 11 * Walter Zelman 5 * No opinion 72 *

* Question not asked

From 594 respondents who said they were registered Republicans and were asked questions about the upcoming Republican primary in June.

If the Republican primary election were being held today, for whom would you vote?

FOR LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR

CANDIDATE % MARCH 1990 % FEB. 1990 Marion Bergeson 4 8 John Seymour 6 5 Someone else 1 1 No opinion 89 86

FOR TREASURER

CANDIDATE % MARCH 1990 % FEB. 1990 Angela “Bay” Buchanan 15 12 Tom Hayes 21 24 Someone else 1 1 No opinion 63 63

FOR STATE INSURANCE COMMISSIONER

CANDIDATE % MARCH 1990 % FEB. 1990 Wes Bannister 8 * Tom Skornia 5 * Someone else 1 * No opinion 86 *

* Question not asked

From 1,667 respondents who are registered voters and answered the following questions. If the general election for governor were being held today, for whom would you vote?

CANDIDATE % MARCH 1990 % FEB. 1990 Dianne Feinstein 39 44 Pete Wilson 34 33 No opinion 27 23 John Van de Kamp 37 32 Pete Wilson 33 33 No opinion 30 35

PROPOSITIONS

From 1,667 registered voters who answered the following question s . Do you think you will vote for or against . . . ?

% FOR % AGAINST PROPOSITION MAR. 1990 FEB. 1990 MAR. 1990 FEB. 1990 Prop. 108 64 * 21 * Prop. 111 45 36 42 49 Prop. 115 65 46 17 23 Prop. 116 44 * 38 *

* Question not asked

Note: Prop. 108 would provide $1 billion for rail transit; Prop. 111 is a gas tax measure; Prop. 115 a speedy trial measure; Prop. 116 would provide $1.9 billion for rail transit.

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll